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Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Old Mar 8th 2019, 10:23 am
  #7636  
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by Annetje View Post
Try to imagine a backstop with time limit, let's say 2 years.
What happens if there is no trade deal in place ? A hard border ... where ... ?
And judging the UK negotiating skills with the WA deal, it won't be dealt with within 2 years !
Even the Irish (apart from the DUP) want the backstop.
I admit it is hard for me to get my head around this issue. Nobody wants a hard border, but at the same time, I think there should be the option to come out of the EU even if a hard border would ensure. The solution, of course, is not to come out of the EU.
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Old Mar 8th 2019, 10:27 am
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by Watchpost View Post
The EU does NOT "want the UK to sign up to an agreement that means they can never leave an EU-controlled CU unless the EU permit it". This is just one of the many anti-EU myths. The clause in the Withdrawal Agreement currently on the table concerning the UK's temporary remaining in the CU was put there at the UK's request, in the face of major reservations on the part of the r27.



Theresa May did (to the clause that is, not to your interpretation of it).



It's the RoI that is being blackmailed - by the DUP. The DUP wants to leave the EU (it campaigned for leave) and to leave the GFA (it campaigned against). That leaves the RoI being forced to erect customs infrastructure either in Ulster, or between it and the EU, in either case against the overwhelming wishes of the people in the RoI.

If Theresa May had not been so staggeringly incompetent and given the DUP a veto over the withdrawal agreement, and if Karen Bradley had not been so staggeringly incompetent and neglected to reinstate Northern Ireland's government, this issue would be being addressed by the people it affects most - the people of Northern Ireland. It would doubtless be a hard choice, but it would be their choice, and they would be responsible for the consequences.
Good explanation. Why did May put the backstop in if she didn't intend to agree it? Was she caught out by the DUP or was there something more Machieavellian going on?
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Old Mar 8th 2019, 10:48 am
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by Watchpost View Post
The EU does NOT "want the UK to sign up to an agreement that means they can never leave an EU-controlled CU unless the EU permit it". This is just one of the many anti-EU myths. The clause in the Withdrawal Agreement currently on the table concerning the UK's temporary remaining in the CU was put there at the UK's request, in the face of major reservations on the part of the r27.



Theresa May did (to the clause that is, not to your interpretation of it).



It's the RoI that is being blackmailed - by the DUP. The DUP wants to leave the EU (it campaigned for leave) and to leave the GFA (it campaigned against). That leaves the RoI being forced to erect customs infrastructure either in Ulster, or between it and the EU, in either case against the overwhelming wishes of the people in the RoI.

If Theresa May had not been so staggeringly incompetent and given the DUP a veto over the withdrawal agreement, and if Karen Bradley had not been so staggeringly incompetent and neglected to reinstate Northern Ireland's government, this issue would be being addressed by the people it affects most - the people of Northern Ireland. It would doubtless be a hard choice, but it would be their choice, and they would be responsible for the consequences.

Thank you. Nice and clear.
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Old Mar 8th 2019, 11:01 am
  #7639  
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by EMR View Post
She has already signed up to that, it was in the agreement defeated by the combination of ultras, DUP, remain ,and Labour.. that will fail next week .
However it might, just might get a small majority if that is the only way to depart from the EU on the 29th and not stay as a full member for an indefinite period if she puts it to parliament as a last ditch attempt on her return from Brussels with the extension terms..
There is massive Brexit, fatigue in the country so I suspect that there would be a huge sigh of relief , the currency and markets will bounce and business can get on with what really matters to them..
Negotiations should have been finished and laid before Parliament long before the end of last year. That they haven't is pretty much entirely down to the Tories.

Originally Posted by Shard View Post
The permanent aspect does seem a bit odd.
Because if it's a temporary thing, the UK government will just let the clock run down and leave an open border on their side, while Ireland has to put up a hard border as they'll have different customs rules somewhere down the line. If the UK doesn't intend to vary it's rules, where's the issue with being in a customs union?

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
That doesn't relate to my point.
You asked how a UK PM could sign up to a customs union that the UK can only leave if the EU agrees, but such an agreement is necessary to keep an open-ish border. And look at it as also that the EU can't end that customs union with the UK either unless the UK agrees.

You're hung-up on the point that some international agreements can't always be walked away from by one party whenever they feel like it, but to do otherwise would make those agreements not worth the paper they're written on.

The UK has just as much skin in the game as Ireland, but the UK has had a democratic vote it must enact.
Spoken like a patriotic Brit.... And no, I'm not intending that to be a negative.

The UK does have skin in the game as you say, but Ireland holds the much better hand. The EU will support one of it's members, so will the other EU member states. As the Musketeers said, one for all and all for one.

Yes, the UK had a vote. Had it been a legally-binding referendum, it would have been voided due to the number of issues with the campaigns leading up to it, so calling it democratic might be stretching things a little. Also, had it been a legally-binding referendum, I'd concede that the decision had to be implemented, but it wasn't, it was merely an expensive opinion poll. Like all good opinion polls, it's a good idea to gauge your target audiences opinions over a period of time. This is why opinion pols don't often give the same result each time they're run.

The UK will work just as hard as Ireland/EU to find a route to prevent border issues, but can't be blackmailed and held over a barrel in the discussion on how to ensure no border problems. At the moment the EU is holding a gun to the UK's head saying "unless you give up all and any future bargaining position and sign your country up to a deal you can never get out of, we'll cut of our economic nose to spite our face and try and blackmail you into it".
The UK isn't being blackmailed, and you understand that perfectly well, I suspect. Neither is it holding a gun to anyone's head, which again I suspect you know.

The reality is that unless the EU forces the issue, the UK will prevaricate right up until Brexit (in exactly 3 weeks and 11 hours) and crash out with no deal, and Leavers will blame the EU, yet the EU is still working to try and help May sell the WA to the Tories. The UK should have this wrapped up months ago, but didn't. That's down to the Tories.

The EU wants a deal, but isn't going to give the UK everything in wants in return for nothing. The UK wants an open border, the EU wants continued regulatory alignment. Simples.

Last edited by DaveLovesDee; Mar 8th 2019 at 11:11 am.
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Old Mar 8th 2019, 11:09 am
  #7640  
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by Shard View Post
Good explanation. Why did May put the backstop in if she didn't intend to agree it? Was she caught out by the DUP or was there something more Machieavellian going on?
The backstop is actually the absolute last resort.
If the WA is agreed and an FTA with the EU negotiated, the backstop will be unlikely to ever be needed.
If there's no UK-EU FTA post-WA end (31st Dec 2020), the backstop ensures an open NI-RoI border. Where's the problem? Does the UK envisage not negotiating an FTA?
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Old Mar 8th 2019, 11:10 am
  #7641  
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by Shard View Post
......Nobody wants a hard border, but at the same time, I think there should be the option to come out of the EU even if a hard border would ensure.....
There is that option, 'no deal' they call it. Maintaining EU SM/CU integrity would mean mandatory third country border customs checks being put in place, as their hand would be forced. The RoI will suffer, as should the UK eventually if it all kicks off again, but it would have little impact on the EU26. The blame will be apportioned correctly by the RoW.
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Old Mar 8th 2019, 11:27 am
  #7642  
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by DaveLovesDee View Post
The backstop is actually the absolute last resort.
If the WA is agreed and an FTA with the EU negotiated, the backstop will be unlikely to ever be needed.
If there's no UK-EU FTA post-WA end (31st Dec 2020), the backstop ensures an open NI-RoI border. Where's the problem? Does the UK envisage not negotiating an FTA?
The ERG envisage no FTA. I can see the benefit of the backstop (for NI and ROI) it just seems like NI should be given the right to jump off the cliff too. Unless the EU sees it's role of protecting the GFA which I don't think it does.
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Old Mar 8th 2019, 11:35 am
  #7643  
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by Shard View Post
The ERG envisage no FTA. I can see the benefit of the backstop (for NI and ROI) it just seems like NI should be given the right to jump off the cliff too. Unless the EU sees it's role of protecting the GFA which I don't think it does.
May is about to start the ''Blame the EU'' speech.

Here is a reaction I read somewhere

"Even though I proposed the backstop in the first place and even though I agreed to the Withdrawal Agreement that included the backstop that I had proposed, I am very clear that its the EU's fault for being intransigent by agreeing to agree to what I myself had agreed to!"


LOL
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Old Mar 8th 2019, 11:38 am
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by Annetje View Post
May is about to start the ''Blame the EU'' speech.

Here is a reaction I read somewhere

"Even though I proposed the backstop in the first place and even though I agreed to the Withdrawal Agreement that included the backstop that I had proposed, I am very clear that its the EU's fault for being intransigent by agreeing to agree to what I myself had agreed to!"

LOL
It's bizarre that she and Hunt are taking this tack. This British government must be seen as a complete joke by the EU.
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Old Mar 8th 2019, 11:45 am
  #7645  
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
Grow up, you just plain boring now.
Get a bit triggered when your inconsistencies are pointed out eh?
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Old Mar 8th 2019, 11:45 am
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by EMR View Post
That was then, it only takes 1 vote in favour if the alternative is remaining as a full member for an indefinite period for it to pass..
let's see what happens just before the 29th.
Extension on EU terms or agreement to Mays deal...
Perhaps the alternative is leaving the EU - known by some as a hard leave.
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Old Mar 8th 2019, 11:47 am
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

It seems she is standing in a warehouse loaded with brexit emergency stockpiling
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Old Mar 8th 2019, 11:54 am
  #7648  
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

[QUOTE=Shard;12649999]Why did May put the backstop in if she didn't intend to agree it?/QUOTE]

Remember, this is only the Withdrawal Agreement. The arrangement wasn't intended to be permanent.

[QUOTE=Shard;12649999]Was she caught out by the DUP or was there something more Machieavellian going on?/QUOTE]

I'm speculating, but I think it was more a case of the DUP not being caught out by May.

The DUP wants three things:

- The UK out of the EU
- NI in the UK, and in alignment with UK law where it suits it (e.g. customs) but not where it doesn't (e.g. abortion)
- NI out of the GFA

For the DUP, peace in NI is a "nice to have", but it would settle for being able to blame others for any violence. This has been DUP policy for decades; its Brexit tactics are just a new manifestation.

At present, the DUP is in an extremely unusual position. It won less than one percent (specifically, 0.9%) of the votes in the last UK general election, but has effectively been given a veto over an agreement that will define the UK decisively for at least a generation.

This is immense power for a tiny faction. It has this power by virtue of an unusual combination of circumstances, but any of the following could put an end to the DUP's veto:

- Another UK general election
- A re-run of the referendum
- A change in Labour policy
- The emergence of a cross-party body of Westminster MPs favouring EU-NI customs alignment
- Restoration of the Stormont government

Given that it probably won't have it for very long, the DUP will obviously aim to use its current power to the full. Its strategy in this respect is the opposite of Theresa May's, which is to kick the can down the road. The DUP doesn't have the luxury of being able to do that.

In view of all that, May was perhaps hoping to buy the DUP off (1 billion pounds, anyone?) just for long enough for the DUP to run out of road. But perhaps I'm crediting May with too much here.
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Old Mar 8th 2019, 11:55 am
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
Perhaps the alternative is leaving the EU - known by some as a hard leave.
Well, that would be entirely consistent with the (democratically arrived at) referendum vote wouldn't it?
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Old Mar 8th 2019, 12:01 pm
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Apologies for the missing open square bracket. :-(
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