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Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Old Nov 29th 2018, 8:05 am
  #3151  
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by Shard View Post
Less migration? What are you on about? Workers will be shipped in from far and wide. We'll even retain the EU workers that we can, the ones that can put up with the red tape we'll be introducing.
I'm saying that the previous rounds of project fear a few months ago used a lower level of net immigration in their calculations "showing" that brexit will leave us with a lower GDP than no brexit.
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Old Nov 29th 2018, 9:06 am
  #3152  
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
I haven't kept up with the most recent project fear projections, but I remember several percent of the previous shortfalls in GDP was down to there being less migration - so less impact in GDP/capita which is perhaps a more relevant measure for Brits.
This sort of thing - from Jan 2017?
We use these coefficients to estimate the possible impact of falls in EU migration on GDP and GDP per capita growth between now and 2020, compared to a counterfactual where EU migration remains constant. In our central scenario, the impact would be to reduce GDP by between about 0.63% to 1.19%, while GDP per capita would be reduced by between about 0.22% and 0.78%. In the more extreme scenario, the hit to GDP per capita would be up to 1.16%....


In order to facilitate comparison with the estimates produced by the Treasury and others of the long-term impacts of Brexit, we also calculate the impact on GDP per capita out to 2030, assuming that migration remains flat at these reduced levels after 2020. Here the impact on GDP per capita ranges from a fall of 0.92% to 3.38% under the central scenario, and from 1.53% to 5.36% under the extreme scenario. This compares to the Treasury’s central estimate of a reduction in GDP from Brexit of 6%.

Of course, our scenarios for future migration flows are dependent on a number of assumptions relating both to our methodology and to the inherent uncertainties over future policy. Nevertheless, we believe they are useful for illustrative purposes. And while the theoretical basis for the view that reductions in migration will translate into reductions in productivity is (as with trade) clear, and supported by the empirical evidence, using quantitative estimates based on historical cross-country data to construct scenarios for the impact on the UK economy going forward is inevitably speculative.
The economic impact of Brexit-induced reductions in migration to the UK

Project Fear doesn't seem all that appropriate a term for a document like this
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Old Nov 29th 2018, 11:03 am
  #3153  
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by amideislas View Post
They're just making the whole thing up. Everybody knows the UK will "flourish", starting instantly on brexit day. Provided of course, that closet remainiac May's commie plan is voted down.
(Updated 5 mins old)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...premium-europe
  • May warns country to prepare for "no deal" Brexit if she loses parliamentary vote on her deal with the EU on Dec. 11
  • Pound falls after May’s comments
  • Prime minister reasserts opposition to a ‘People’s Vote’
... Wonder how much longer this time-wasting nonsense can go on AND what it's costing; - because it's all going to have to be paid for..... and we know by which nation, don't we.....

EDIT:
Whatever your views, I recommend the following to everyone.

https://www.opendemocracy.net/can-eu...-european-view

Written by a co-rapporteur for an EU political group in the UK exit negotiations, it provides the stark impact that loss of EU Citizenship OUR loss will have on us.
Still all happy to throw this in the dirt???

Last edited by 007Steve; Nov 29th 2018 at 12:53 pm.
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Old Nov 29th 2018, 2:00 pm
  #3154  
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Thats a very good report 007 Steve... Takes awhile to read ,an you need to be motivated to learn some truths, something not too popular on here at times.It underlines the fact that Brexit cannot be seen as a stand alone, black or white fight.Many many remainers already felt the need for some closer scrutiny of the way the EU was headed. A lot of disquiet at the sudden huge growth forced on the union by the break up of USSR. Then the double whammy of the massive flood of refugees and immigrants.closely followed by the banking crisis and the economic downturn that followed. What remainers didn't do was look for a scapegoat and blame the EU for 90% of it .
Leavers did however, and they swallowed the internal political sob story fed to them by the likes of Farage ,BoJo and the Tory party who shamelessly used these external difficulties to shape they way they wanted the people to think. It was never the truth .It was a convenient moment to strike and orchestrate the opposite of what the leavers thought they were voting for. Less rights ,not more .Less jobs not more.
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Old Nov 29th 2018, 2:28 pm
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by 007Steve View Post
(Updated 5 mins old)


EDIT:
Whatever your views, I recommend the following to everyone.

https://www.opendemocracy.net/can-eu...-european-view

Written by a co-rapporteur for an EU political group in the UK exit negotiations, it provides the stark impact that loss of EU Citizenship OUR loss will have on us.
Still all happy to throw this in the dirt???
Don't you find it interesting that she is the daughter of Altiero Spinelli and she also suggests to 'revalorize' what Delors said??
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Old Nov 29th 2018, 2:33 pm
  #3156  
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by GeniB View Post
Thats a very good report 007 Steve... Takes awhile to read ,an you need to be motivated to learn some truths, something not too popular on here at times.It underlines the fact that Brexit cannot be seen as a stand alone, black or white fight.Many many remainers already felt the need for some closer scrutiny of the way the EU was headed. A lot of disquiet at the sudden huge growth forced on the union by the break up of USSR. Then the double whammy of the massive flood of refugees and immigrants.closely followed by the banking crisis and the economic downturn that followed. What remainers didn't do was look for a scapegoat and blame the EU for 90% of it .
Leavers did however, and they swallowed the internal political sob story fed to them by the likes of Farage ,BoJo and the Tory party who shamelessly used these external difficulties to shape they way they wanted the people to think. It was never the truth .It was a convenient moment to strike and orchestrate the opposite of what the leavers thought they were voting for. Less rights ,not more .Less jobs not more.
Slight correction, the Tory party was for remain.
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Old Nov 29th 2018, 4:46 pm
  #3157  
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

May seems to be becoming quite hubristic in her My Deal or Nothing campaign. She knows No Deal is a cliff edge, as do most, but she's using it to coerce everyone to accept a bad deal. She needs to be toppled before she causes complete chaos.
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Old Nov 29th 2018, 4:55 pm
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by Shard View Post
May seems to be becoming quite hubristic in her My Deal or Nothing campaign. She knows No Deal is a cliff edge, as do most, but she's using it to coerce everyone to accept a bad deal. She needs to be toppled before she causes complete chaos.
Problem is that I think many leaver MPs will vote for the deal.

It is, after all, leaving which is probably all they can hope for now.

And many remainers will also go for it.

Capey thinks it´s better than remaining.
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Old Nov 29th 2018, 5:00 pm
  #3159  
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by jimenato View Post
Problem is that I think many leaver MPs will vote for the deal.

It is, after all, leaving which is probably all they can hope for now.

And many remainers will also go for it.

Capey thinks it´s better than remaining.
Yes, that's what I fear. A bad Brexit by default.
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Old Nov 29th 2018, 5:16 pm
  #3160  
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by Shard View Post
Yes, that's what I fear. A bad Brexit by default.
Every form of Brexit would be a bad one from your standpoint though.
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Old Nov 29th 2018, 5:18 pm
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by jimenato View Post
Problem is that I think many leaver MPs will vote for the deal.

It is, after all, leaving which is probably all they can hope for now.

And many remainers will also go for it.

Capey thinks it´s better than remaining.
What happened to "No deal is better than a bad deal"?
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Old Nov 29th 2018, 5:21 pm
  #3162  
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by DaveLovesDee View Post
What happened to "No deal is better than a bad deal"?
You take an interest in current affairs, Davey Boy. Don't tell me you've never heard of political expediency.
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Old Nov 29th 2018, 5:40 pm
  #3163  
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by DaveLovesDee View Post
What happened to "No deal is better than a bad deal"?
Just another lie.

Otherwise known as 'political expediency'
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Old Nov 29th 2018, 5:45 pm
  #3164  
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by materialcontroller View Post
Every form of Brexit would be a bad one from your standpoint though.
Yes, that's correct. Whatever reasons there are to leave are outweighed by the reasons to stay. It really is that simple.
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Old Nov 29th 2018, 5:48 pm
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by materialcontroller View Post
You take an interest in current affairs, Davey Boy. Don't tell me you've never heard of political expediency.
Originally Posted by jimenato View Post
Just another lie.

Otherwise known as 'political expediency'
Unless it's expedient to Remain. In which case, it's labelled Project Fear
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