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Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Old Sep 18th 2018, 7:27 pm
  #16  
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by materialcontroller View Post
The Chequers arrangement is probably the best outcome at the moment. I don't think we'll end up with a no deal scenario.
let's hope not.
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Old Sep 18th 2018, 7:39 pm
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Nobody benefits in the event of "no deal" being reached. Everyone ultimately loses, whether they realise it now or not; which is why I think it will be averted, even if it just means we end up with an interim BINO and an extended period of negotiations over the more protracted issues.
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Old Sep 18th 2018, 8:13 pm
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by materialcontroller View Post
Nobody benefits in the event of "no deal" being reached. Everyone ultimately loses, whether they realise it now or not; which is why I think it will be averted, even if it just means we end up with an interim BINO and an extended period of negotiations over the more protracted issues.
Thankfully, No Deal seem a fairly remote possibility at this stage.
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Old Sep 19th 2018, 1:07 am
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Where's the EU border gonna be? NI-RoI or the Irish Sea?
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Old Sep 19th 2018, 6:20 am
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by DaveLovesDee View Post
Where's the EU border gonna be? NI-RoI or the Irish Sea?
We find out Thursday. Personally, I think Irish Sea makes sense.
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Old Sep 19th 2018, 4:38 pm
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Apparently, even by the government's own analysis, there is no quantifiable upside with any version of Brexit. Even the IMF just confirmed that. Again.

So, it's worth considering how those who suffer the worst of the pain will react. Apparently (and ironically) one of the worst affected will be Wales, but more ominously, Northern Ireland.

Now, considering that NI voted remain, and should, in their dissatisfaction with the Brexit outcome, a referendum to join Ireland come to pass, the act of simply reuniting (and therefore remaining in the EU) although not "simple", would be quite a bit simpler than Scotland, for example. No need to re-join the EU as in Scotland's case. Status quo, really. Besides, it's probably finally time that Ireland be Ireland again. And it would instantly solve the border issue. And with England weakened by Brexit, probably the best time to do it.
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Old Sep 19th 2018, 5:46 pm
  #22  
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Yes, if there's a Brexit, to me it's a no-brainer that Ireland unifies. Even within NI some loyalists are reportedly starting to think that NI in the EU trumps NI as part of the UK...so it's not impossible. It would certainly de-complicate Brexit negotiations.

Will be interesting to see how Chequers fares this week. If well, we stumble onward, if it crumbles, hello Boris at the Tory conference.
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Old Sep 19th 2018, 6:02 pm
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Barnier and the EU are slowly drip-drip-drip softening up on the NI issue. Still not enough of course, not yet anyway, but it does offer a slim hope of an eventual fudge/compromise. Now we would all have been in much better shape if only both sides could have done this earlier, instead of acting so belligerently and indulging in the divisive gung-ho posturing that has characterised the debate so far.
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Old Sep 19th 2018, 6:30 pm
  #24  
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Hard to know what's really going on. The news reports are often contradictory. One minute they're said to be compromising, the next they're said to be rejecting. Plenty of public mood management too.

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Old Sep 19th 2018, 6:50 pm
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

They're simply trying their best to give Theresa May a lifeline, hopefully to prevent England from pushing the UK to its wonton act of self-harm. The last thing EU members want is an angry, desperate, adversarial nation just off the coast. But they're not going to engage in their own self-harm to achieve it.
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Old Sep 19th 2018, 8:29 pm
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by materialcontroller View Post
Barnier and the EU are slowly drip-drip-drip softening up on the NI issue. Still not enough of course, not yet anyway, but it does offer a slim hope of an eventual fudge/compromise.
Really? EU law requires a hard border between member states and non-members unless the non-member has agreed to abide by EU rules (as demonstrated by the EEA and Switzerland).

That means either NI has a hard border with RoI and is out of the SM and CU, or has a hard border with maintain GB and is in the SM and CU.

Now we would all have been in much better shape if only both sides could have done this earlier, instead of acting so belligerently and indulging in the divisive gung-ho posturing that has characterised the debate so far.
If you think the EU has been belligerent, what for the FTA discussions to begin.
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Old Sep 19th 2018, 9:55 pm
  #27  
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by Shard View Post
It's taken 2 years to reach this "Chequers" plan and even then there is plenty of dissent within parliament. And of course, the weaker the Brexit, the more of an argument there is to not Brexit at all. "Brexit" in 2016 was far too vaguely defined, hence the current chaos.
Well of course it's taken 2 years. May's government have been partially responsible for that but also cannot be held solely responsible. The EU is notoriously bureaucratic and slow. It took almost a decade to sign a deal with Canada and Canada is probably about as non-threatning as any country can get.

I mean FFS when I saw a Canadian politician meet her Japanese counterpart to discuss their mutual trade deal, she laughingly dispensed with handshaking and invited him in for a hug.

This one will just wind up going down to the final hour like EU negotiations always seem to do but IMVHO, no deal is extremely unlikely. It would highly problematic for both sides.
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Old Sep 19th 2018, 9:59 pm
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by DaveLovesDee View Post
Really? EU law requires a hard border between member states and non-members unless the non-member has agreed to abide by EU rules (as demonstrated by the EEA and Switzerland).

That means either NI has a hard border with RoI and is out of the SM and CU, or has a hard border with maintain GB and is in the SM and CU.

If you think the EU has been belligerent, what for the FTA discussions to begin.
I've personally never understood why we can't have a hard border with the Republic of Ireland. As long as it's policed and controlled properly and inconvenience is kept to a bare minimum then I'm quite sure that people and businesses would adapt.

It shouldn't be that hard either. You just have a NEXUS type system for UK and Irish citizens and a few vetted and pre-cleared foreigners/residents another line and processing mechanism for everyone else.
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Old Sep 19th 2018, 11:13 pm
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by DigitalGhost View Post
I've personally never understood why we can't have a hard border with the Republic of Ireland. As long as it's policed and controlled properly and inconvenience is kept to a bare minimum then I'm quite sure that people and businesses would adapt.
Why? Because the UK made an agreement with the Republic of Ireland. We could always have a referendum on breaking that agreement...

Gov.UK - Common Travel Area

The UK legal position on the CTA is set out in section 1(3) of the Immigration Act 1971. This act forms the basis of the UK’s operational approach to the CTA – when a person travels from Ireland, Jersey, Guernsey or the Isle of Man directly to the UK (an intra-CTA journey) they must not be subject to routine immigration control.
The Good Friday Agreement provides for a referendum by Northern Ireland voters on joining Eire in a united Ireland.

It shouldn't be that hard either. You just have a NEXUS type system for UK and Irish citizens and a few vetted and pre-cleared foreigners/residents another line and processing mechanism for everyone else.
The U.S. NEXUS system at least had current border controls in place before having a fast-track system. The NI-RoI border has nothing, no border post, no barrier, not even a speed bump. All there is are signs each side informing drivers that the speed signs are now in mph/kph as appropriate to the side of the border they're located, and a pair of traffic flow cameras.

The first image is looking north on the A1 to NI, the second south to the RoI. It's not as easy as you think, not cheap, and that's ONE crossing of a 499km border that has NO fences.


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Old Sep 19th 2018, 11:27 pm
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Default Re: Politics of Chequers, No Deal, etc

Originally Posted by DaveLovesDee View Post
Why? Because the UK made an agreement with the Republic of Ireland. We could always have a referendum on breaking that agreement...

Gov.UK - Common Travel Area



The Good Friday Agreement provides for a referendum by Northern Ireland voters on joining Eire in a united Ireland.



The U.S. NEXUS system at least had current border controls in place before having a fast-track system. The NI-RoI border has nothing, no border post, no barrier, not even a speed bump. All there is are signs each side informing drivers that the speed signs are now in mph/kph as appropriate to the side of the border they're located, and a pair of traffic flow cameras.

The first image is looking north on the A1 to NI, the second south to the RoI. It's not as easy as you think, not cheap, and that's ONE crossing of a 499km border that has NO fences.


Wasn't the US-Canada border like that pre-9/11 though? People used to just walk across any part of it to go grocery shopping, see their mates or have breakfast in a nearby diner. It was only after 2001 that things were tightened up but even now there's no wall to speak of along most of it. As we all know, there isn't even a wall separating the US entirely from Mexico.

The current land border situation over there is based on patrols and a reliance on people obeying the rules and using official checkpoints, with punishments for those who don't. IMHO there's no reason why the UK and Ireland couldn't adapt and replicate that scenario.
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