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CORONAVIRUS PART II

CORONAVIRUS PART II

Old Apr 10th 2020, 1:54 pm
  #811  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by macliam View Post
This is just one of the many "tinfoil helmet" suggestions out there. We are aware of the underlying mortality rate of viral infection, even if it is variable and difficult to state with precision, so as has been asked bluntly - where are the coffins to support any such assumption?
saw some modeling earlier on how many may of been infected here in the UK, looks as though it may be around ten percent of the population, the figures weren't exactly reliable but wouldnt be great news if this was the case.
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Old Apr 10th 2020, 1:55 pm
  #812  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by Phathamster View Post
hmm what about the ONS figures which show a 1% rise in death for the week until 27th march, wait for the next results....
Interestingly, until a few days ago, total UK deaths for the year were down compared to other years. Interesting to speculate on why that might be.
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Old Apr 10th 2020, 2:00 pm
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by jimenato View Post
Interestingly, until a few days ago, total UK deaths for the year were down compared to other years. Interesting to speculate on why that might be.
more interesting is that coincides with the release of the ONS data.


If your going to make a claim at least back it up...
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Old Apr 10th 2020, 2:05 pm
  #814  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by Phathamster View Post
saw some modeling earlier on how many may of been infected here in the UK, looks as though it may be around ten percent of the population, the figures weren't exactly reliable but wouldnt be great news if this was the case.
This is the "friction" between the discredited "Herd Immunity" standpoint and lockdown. As lockdown is designed to limit transmission, uptake within the general population will be reduced and the time taken to reach terminal impact (unfortunate phrase) is increased.
Originally Posted by jimenato View Post
Interestingly, until a few days ago, total UK deaths for the year were down compared to other years. Interesting to speculate on why that might be.
That's the problem with taking one sample out of context. A milder winter and other variations will impact annual figures, so these can only be interpreted alongside figures over a longer period and contributory factors. Statistics don't lie, but the interpretation of them can be faulty.
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Old Apr 10th 2020, 2:18 pm
  #815  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by macliam View Post
ALL infection outside China appears to have been vectored by migration, transit centres notwitstanding. The initial outbreak in Portugal appears to have been triggered by an international footwear exhibition hosting manufacturers from China.
Not so sure about that - the first confirmed cases in Portugal were people recently returned from holidays in Italy and Spain.
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Old Apr 10th 2020, 2:23 pm
  #816  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

French police turn back private jet of holidaymakers from UK
A group of would-be holidaymakers who flew in a private jet from London to the Côte d’Azur in France have been turned back by police.

Seven men and three women arrived on the chartered aircraft to Marseille-Provence airport, where helicopters were waiting to fly them on to Cannes, where they had rented a luxury villa. The men, aged 40-50, and women, aged 23-25...
Sounds more like a porn movie cast.
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Old Apr 10th 2020, 2:26 pm
  #817  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by BristolUK View Post
Bad ratio though.
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Old Apr 10th 2020, 2:30 pm
  #818  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by BristolUK View Post
Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
Bad ratio though.
That age difference though. Yikes.
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Old Apr 10th 2020, 2:37 pm
  #819  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by Red Eric View Post
Not so sure about that - the first confirmed cases in Portugal were people recently returned from holidays in Italy and Spain.
No, the cases in Ovar were as described - that area is a centre for shoe production.

The information given to me by a local source (Agueda) was that the initial victims were members of the same family who attended the exhibition and passed the virus on to the wider community before symptoms were noticeable.

Last edited by macliam; Apr 10th 2020 at 2:40 pm.
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Old Apr 10th 2020, 2:42 pm
  #820  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by SultanOfSwing View Post
That age difference though. Yikes.
Rich businessmen with trophies, showing absolute disconnect from real-life concerns.

Par for the course.
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Old Apr 10th 2020, 2:42 pm
  #821  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by moneypenny20 View Post
Next door have been buiding a bonfire for a couple of weeks now. Some cars have arrived and people gone up to the house. Now if a bonfire party happens tonight do I keep my head down and ignore the ****ing morons or do I call the police?
Do you like them ... ?
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Old Apr 10th 2020, 2:44 pm
  #822  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by macliam View Post
Rich businessmen with trophies, showing absolute disconnect from real-life concerns.

Par for the course.
Yeah, very true.
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Old Apr 10th 2020, 3:03 pm
  #823  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by macliam View Post
This virus will behave in a similar manner to any other virus in an unprotected population.
...
Social distancing WILL be playing a role, but the impact will be variable depending on the degree to which it is enforced/practiced.
...
But I think it is fairly obvious that in a place like NY (city) where people live in high densities the virus will spread much faster than in a place like LA (city), which is notoriously 'spread out'.
NY city: "The city's population density of 26,403 people per square mile ..."
LA city: "Based on the 2010 census data, Los Angeles had a density of 7,544.6 people per square mile..."
So NY is > 3x more dense that LA, and I think that is a serious factor. People in LA don't live in high-rise apartment buildings with common elevators, and are notorious for not riding public transit (though it does exist today, in limited fashion). There are apartment buildings in LA of course, but they tend to be low-rise, many with outside / direct access, and with a higher ratio of stairways (offering multiple access options, compared to elevators).

Now, San Francisco, with a population density of 17,260 people per square mile, has the second highest density in the US ... but SF is very small - population less than 1 M.
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Old Apr 10th 2020, 3:08 pm
  #824  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by Steerpike View Post
But I think it is fairly obvious that in a place like NY (city) where people live in high densities the virus will spread much faster than in a place like LA (city), which is notoriously 'spread out'.
NY city: "The city's population density of 26,403 people per square mile ..."
LA city: "Based on the 2010 census data, Los Angeles had a density of 7,544.6 people per square mile..."
So NY is > 3x more dense that LA, and I think that is a serious factor. People in LA don't live in high-rise apartment buildings with common elevators, and are notorious for not riding public transit (though it does exist today, in limited fashion). There are apartment buildings in LA of course, but they tend to be low-rise, many with outside / direct access, and with a higher ratio of stairways (offering multiple access options, compared to elevators).

Now, San Francisco, with a population density of 17,260 people per square mile, has the second highest density in the US ... but SF is very small - population less than 1 M.
Density is a factor, amongst many others such as relative wealth, but this is common to all viruses, not just COVID-19.
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Old Apr 10th 2020, 3:26 pm
  #825  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Last week the press was showing satellite photos of mass graves being dug in Iran, and today the news is showing mass graves on an island off the Bronx, and workers laying coffins out in the trenches. No doubt there is a plan to disinter and re-bury them at some point, and it's obviously more practical than lining up endless refrigerated trailers, but I think it shows the degree of severity in stark fashion.
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