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CORONAVIRUS PART II

CORONAVIRUS PART II

Old May 2nd 2020, 10:57 am
  #1726  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

To be fair the UK aren't the worst at testing albeit a fair distant from the best,


I think testing is fairly futile at this level, at 100,000 a day it would still take two years to test everybody once... So what's the point?


I'm not sure anybody has really got it right on testing thus far but it's a good number for leaders to spout how 'successful' they are.


Surely we need to be testing in the realms of 8% of the population daily? Other wise two weeks later it's all pointless old onfy again? Then we can surely work out for certain how well antibodies work.


Seems to a fair bit of information surfacing about the accuracy of various tests too.
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Old May 2nd 2020, 11:36 am
  #1727  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by Phathamster View Post
To be fair the UK aren't the worst at testing albeit a fair distant from the best,


I think testing is fairly futile at this level, at 100,000 a day it would still take two years to test everybody once... So what's the point?


I'm not sure anybody has really got it right on testing thus far but it's a good number for leaders to spout how 'successful' they are.


Surely we need to be testing in the realms of 8% of the population daily? Other wise two weeks later it's all pointless old onfy again? Then we can surely work out for certain how well antibodies work.


Seems to a fair bit of information surfacing about the accuracy of various tests too.
I agree, testing is not a silver bullet, but it's the smoke and mirrors I hate. Given that the only accurate test is a point-in-time view of the patient's viral load, it is only of use in confirming a diagnosis - or if carried out regularly. The failed antibody tests would have been far more useful in showing those who had been infected - although any immunity is moot.

The problem is, everyone wants to hear positive progress.... so those in charge must fabricate it. We still have so much to learn about this virus and our reactions to it that to admit what we don't know, or what we suspect, would set the cat amongst the pigeons.
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Old May 2nd 2020, 11:57 am
  #1728  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by Phathamster View Post
To be fair the UK aren't the worst at testing albeit a fair distant from the best,


I think testing is fairly futile at this level, at 100,000 a day it would still take two years to test everybody once... So what's the point?


I'm not sure anybody has really got it right on testing thus far but it's a good number for leaders to spout how 'successful' they are.


Surely we need to be testing in the realms of 8% of the population daily? Other wise two weeks later it's all pointless old onfy again? Then we can surely work out for certain how well antibodies work.


Seems to a fair bit of information surfacing about the accuracy of various tests too.
Despite the above, the fact remains that the countries who have undertaken aggressive testing and contact tracing at an early stage have significantly lower death rates than the countries that haven't. Although other factors have a part to play in the death rate, this cannot be coincidence.
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Old May 2nd 2020, 1:13 pm
  #1729  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by pommybird View Post
Despite the above, the fact remains that the countries who have undertaken aggressive testing and contact tracing at an early stage have significantly lower death rates than the countries that haven't. Although other factors have a part to play in the death rate, this cannot be coincidence.
And possibly regions within countries too. In our small Province our first case was someone back from France. It was announced they were tracing her contacts since return and within a couple of days there were a few more positive results, including her partner. From ages and location it was obvious they were all family. Likely met up after return. And that was repeated - new cases all "close contacts" of a new case previously announced as returning from abroad.

Schools closed and all the other restrictions were imposed early as well as closing borders with other provinces and a 14 day quarantine (checked upon) for anyone coming in.

The testing was much more limited back then so by no means aggressive except for the contacts being traced and tested; the majority of positive results all being asymptomatic but quarantined as a result.

We've had only 118 cases in a population of 770,000. All but 10 were returnees from abroad or their close contacts traced and tested, pretty much before they could pass it on.
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Old May 2nd 2020, 1:14 pm
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by pommybird View Post
Despite the above, the fact remains that the countries who have undertaken aggressive testing and contact tracing at an early stage have significantly lower death rates than the countries that haven't. Although other factors have a part to play in the death rate, this cannot be coincidence.
I think the significant part of what you say is about the aggressive contact tracing. That way, the limited number of tests available are used on people identified as potential victims rather than as a general diagnostic.... which has all the issues discussed. It is also better at closing down hotspots.....
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Old May 2nd 2020, 4:42 pm
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Florida man stalks beach as Grim Reaper to protest reopening amid pandemic



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Old May 2nd 2020, 4:53 pm
  #1732  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by pommybird View Post
Despite the above, the fact remains that the countries who have undertaken aggressive testing and contact tracing at an early stage have significantly lower death rates than the countries that haven't. Although other factors have a part to play in the death rate, this cannot be coincidence.

​​Or they whizzed round quick and tested everyone before they managed to contract it, and just have far less dense populations....
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Old May 2nd 2020, 5:17 pm
  #1733  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Nice one!

Originally Posted by Phathamster View Post
​​Or they whizzed round quick and tested everyone before they managed to contract it, and just have far less dense populations....
Pessimistic much?

If they contact-traced and tested everyone in contact with the infected, and some testa turned out negative, I suspect they'd have still been monitored post testing.

Less-dense populations are easier to maintain social distancing from...
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Old May 2nd 2020, 5:22 pm
  #1734  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by DaveLovesDee View Post
Nice one!



Pessimistic much?

If they contact-traced and tested everyone in contact with the infected, and some testa turned out negative, I suspect they'd have still been monitored post testing.

Less-dense populations are easier to maintain social distancing from...

Not really just trying to make the point that just trying to test test test is fairly futile without serious joined up thinking it's a headline grabber.


And it's entirely possible that this early aggressive testing just flattened the first wave....
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Old May 2nd 2020, 7:14 pm
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

This is a promising sign for us in BC.

"As of Friday, there were 24 COVID-19 patients in the province's intensive care units, down from a high of 72 on April 6. The overall number of people being treated in hospital is now 79, down from a high of 149 on Apr. 4."

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Old May 2nd 2020, 8:57 pm
  #1736  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

What is the problem with the tests thing isn't the number done, it's the fact that the government blatantly lied about it, and then when they knew they were going to fail, instead of admitting things, they found another way to lie sbout the figures, another way to deliberately massage figure to make it appear they did what they promised. So the answer is that if you have a bill for £100 pound to pay, then you tell them you will pay £73 nown and the rest will be in the post, with no guarantee it will ever turn up.
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Old May 2nd 2020, 10:42 pm
  #1737  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Amongst the many others, please spare a thought for my friend in London.
6 weeks today since he went into ICU and tonight his family were told his organs are shutting down.....
They are going to try cortisone as a last resort.

Of course I tell SWMBO and my godson not to worry, he's a fighter.
But this is the first time the medics have been less than positive.
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Old May 2nd 2020, 10:52 pm
  #1738  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by macliam View Post
Amongst the many others, please spare a thought for my friend in London.
6 weeks today since he went into ICU and tonight his family were told his organs are shutting down.....
They are going to try cortisone as a last resort.

Of course I tell SWMBO and my godson not to worry, he's a fighter.
But this is the first time the medics have been less than positive.
sadly, that doesn’t sound good.
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Old May 2nd 2020, 11:14 pm
  #1739  
 
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by macliam View Post
Amongst the many others, please spare a thought for my friend in London.
6 weeks today since he went into ICU and tonight his family were told his organs are shutting down.....
They are going to try cortisone as a last resort.

Of course I tell SWMBO and my godson not to worry, he's a fighter.
But this is the first time the medics have been less than positive.
Very sorry to hear this. I hope he can pull through.
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Old May 3rd 2020, 3:32 am
  #1740  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Looks like COVID officially took Canada into recession, the graph in the article though, quite the visual.



CBC Article.

We have another outbreak at a chicken processing plant, one of several now at various chicken processing plants.

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