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CORONAVIRUS PART II

CORONAVIRUS PART II

Old Apr 25th 2020, 2:10 pm
  #1561  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
That's not what I said at the start of the discussion when you first responded.
Post 1501. It is exactly that quote that I started with. You really are shameless aren't you.
And they are at no more risk of death than the general public
And there goes that definite statement again, the one you claim you didn't say.

Are you familiar with the truth at all?
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Old Apr 25th 2020, 2:20 pm
  #1562  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by Red Eric View Post
That's about 0.14% of the time, if we take it as full minutes.

Yeah - I guess that's about right.
And what is your opinion on the radio 4 stats we are talking about? Or do you not have any opinions and just want to attack the messenger?
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Old Apr 25th 2020, 2:22 pm
  #1563  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by BristolUK View Post
Post 1501. It is exactly that quote that I started with. You really are shameless aren't you.

And there goes that definite statement again, the one you claim you didn't say.

Are you familiar with the truth at all?
The truth is that the Radio 4 article analysed the data to-date and showed that healthcare workers are at no more risk of death than the equivalent general public - are you familiar with that truth?

And do note you are selectively quoting what I said, removing parts of the quote.
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Old Apr 25th 2020, 2:28 pm
  #1564  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
And do note you are selectively quoting what I said, removing parts of the quote.
I requoted the same part I originally used. The one you mistakenly said I did not.

In my last post I removed a small part that changed no meaning of what you said, and showed how it matched your earlier statement.

That's simple enough.

It's also enough from me.
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Old Apr 25th 2020, 2:40 pm
  #1565  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
And what is your opinion on the radio 4 stats we are talking about? Or do you not have any opinions and just want to attack the messenger?
Dear me, you do sound petulant. And triggered.

The stopped watch comment wasn't about you. It was about this claim :
Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
You may not like that, but they were very clear with the data they used. That may change, it may be that less healthcare staff die proportionally than the public or indeed more, but the data available at the time showed it was the same.
As has been said, very probably sheer coincidence. Like a stopped watch being exactly right twice a day.

It was you who decided to take it as all about you. I just played along with it in similar vein.
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Old Apr 25th 2020, 3:03 pm
  #1566  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Trump also makes that assumption frequently.
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Old Apr 25th 2020, 3:19 pm
  #1567  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by Chatter Static View Post
Listening to the BBC on the babble box this morning it sounded like the UK is reversing the lockdown measures although it might just be a few folk jumping the gun.
A couple of things have been 'clarified' recently - specifically that it is OK to drive a short distance to a place where you exercise. That could account for some of the traffic increase.

I suspect that that there is a slight but perceptible relaxation among the populace anyway - although quite where they are driving to is beyond me - there isn't much open.

I am starting to notice other breaches of distancing - a neighbour went to visit family on his nephew's birthday and the house opposite us has someone staying as of yesterday.

Still - nearly all are observing distancing nearly all of the time.

The increased mobility has been noticed officially - the evening TV briefing yesterday mentioned increased use of various means of transport. Whether or not they are concerned enough to do something about it remains to be seen.
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Old Apr 25th 2020, 3:33 pm
  #1568  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by Bipat View Post
Just some news this AM regarding lockdowns---India has been generally praised for its actions in the pandemic. Karnataka state, our State--- 18 deaths, 153 survived, out of population of 63 million (8th largest State).

Heard this morning that in our town (approx. 70,000--) Lockdown totally lifted, shops, market open, building work restarted, rickshaws trading.
Hopefully all will be OK! We will see.
Interesting. So your state is about the same population is UK.
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Old Apr 25th 2020, 3:43 pm
  #1569  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by amideislas View Post
Speaking of Spain, I look at the stats every morning. I find it remarkable that despite the (comparatively) draconian lockdown, the infection rate is still growing rapidly. ~6000 new cases per day. Obviously that pales in comparison to the US, but it seems pretty high considering the length of time we've been locked down.

The good news is that the death rate seems to be falling pretty rapidly (~350 per day). About half the death rate in the UK and obviously, far lower than the US.

I would have expected the infection rate in Spain to have slowed to a crawl by now. Anyone have any credible data on why this continues?
If you sort the table by either of the two column headings "Tot Cases / 1M pop" or "Deaths / 1M Pop", Spain does look worse off than most countries, and certainly worse off that US and UK:
Spain - Cases per 1M population = 4,786; Deaths per 1M population = 490
USA - Cases per 1M population = 2,807; Deaths per 1M population = 158
UK - Cases per 1M population = 2,186; Deaths per 1M population = 299.

Looking at the 'big numbers' really doesn't tell me much because the populations of the different countries are so vastly different. Normalizing for population tells a much more useful story if you want to compare, in my opinion.

So yes, if Spain has been so heavily locked down, why such high numbers? In the US, the lockdown is, I would say, far less aggressive than UK and even more so compared to Spain.
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Old Apr 25th 2020, 3:50 pm
  #1570  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by BristolUK View Post
I requoted the same part I originally used. The one you mistakenly said I did not.

In my last post I removed a small part that changed no meaning of what you said, and showed how it matched your earlier statement.

That's simple enough.

It's also enough from me.
No, you changed what I said:
And they are at no more risk of death than the general public - that what the data say.
To:
And they are at no more risk of death than the general public
Very poor show - trying to make it look like a statement from me and my thoughts, rather than me just quoting the Radio 4 data.
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Old Apr 25th 2020, 3:51 pm
  #1571  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by Red Eric View Post
Dear me, you do sound petulant. And triggered.

The stopped watch comment wasn't about you. It was about this claim :

As has been said, very probably sheer coincidence. Like a stopped watch being exactly right twice a day.

It was you who decided to take it as all about you. I just played along with it in similar vein.
Oh dear, you're going downhill with your trolling now Red.
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Old Apr 25th 2020, 3:53 pm
  #1572  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by macliam View Post
At a guess, the amount of testing being done..... the more you test, the more you'll find. Spain has done double the tests per million inhabitants than the UK or France and more (on that measure) than the USA.

But I regard all the numbers as dubious..... and comparisons moreso. ....
'Cases' numbers are horribly inaccurate due to the fact that they are heavily dependent on the amount of testing performed. But 'Deaths' are less suspect. Yes, each location has its own way of counting deaths, and reporting periods differ, etc but I'd say 'deaths' are significantly more accurate and 'useful' in this context than 'cases'. Deaths may be off by 50%, Cases by 1,000%. But also, looking at the trajectory of deaths within a jurisdiction is quite useful, since that eliminates differences in methods of reporting.
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Old Apr 25th 2020, 3:54 pm
  #1573  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by Steerpike View Post
If you sort the table by either of the two column headings "Tot Cases / 1M pop" or "Deaths / 1M Pop", Spain does look worse off than most countries, and certainly worse off that US and UK:
Spain - Cases per 1M population = 4,786; Deaths per 1M population = 490
USA - Cases per 1M population = 2,807; Deaths per 1M population = 158
UK - Cases per 1M population = 2,186; Deaths per 1M population = 299.

Looking at the 'big numbers' really doesn't tell me much because the populations of the different countries are so vastly different. Normalizing for population tells a much more useful story if you want to compare, in my opinion.

So yes, if Spain has been so heavily locked down, why such high numbers? In the US, the lockdown is, I would say, far less aggressive than UK and even more so compared to Spain.
Per capita is certainly one way of parsing the data, but in reality it will not take into account urbanisation, previous use of public transport, openness of the country etc etc so we should be careful suggesting one country has "done better" than another.
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Old Apr 25th 2020, 4:03 pm
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
Per capita is certainly one way of parsing the data, but in reality it will not take into account urbanisation, previous use of public transport, openness of the country etc etc so we should be careful suggesting one country has "done better" than another.
At the risk of introducing 'cultural stereotypes', are the people in Spain known for being more 'touchy/feely' in terms of greetings, etc compared to, say, UK or US? I know Brits are rather 'standoffish' when they meet and greet; The French seem to do the 'double-kiss', but I'm not sure what the practices are in Spain.
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Old Apr 25th 2020, 4:21 pm
  #1575  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by Steerpike View Post
At the risk of introducing 'cultural stereotypes', are the people in Spain known for being more 'touchy/feely' in terms of greetings, etc compared to, say, UK or US? I know Brits are rather 'standoffish' when they meet and greet; The French seem to do the 'double-kiss', but I'm not sure what the practices are in Spain.
I would say so yes - these are all the potential drivers of differences between countries outcomes aren't they?
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