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CORONAVIRUS PART II

CORONAVIRUS PART II

Old Apr 25th 2020, 12:06 pm
  #1546  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by amideislas View Post
Speaking of Spain, I look at the stats every morning. I find it remarkable that despite the (comparatively) draconian lockdown, the infection rate is still growing rapidly. ~6000 new cases per day. Obviously that pales in comparison to the US, but it seems pretty high considering the length of time we've been locked down.

The good news is that the death rate seems to be falling pretty rapidly (~350 per day). About half the death rate in the UK and obviously, far lower than the US.

I would have expected the infection rate in Spain to have slowed to a crawl by now. Anyone have any credible data on why this continues?
Could it be the timing of when the lockdown started. See my above post ---We went from strict masks and temperature taking before entry into public buildings in March in India to nothing in the UK (apart from handwashing advice!)
When did Spain start strict lockdown??
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Old Apr 25th 2020, 12:11 pm
  #1547  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by amideislas View Post
Speaking of Spain, I look at the stats every morning. I find it remarkable that despite the (comparatively) draconian lockdown, the infection rate is still growing rapidly. ~6000 new cases per day. Obviously that pales in comparison to the US, but it seems pretty high considering the length of time we've been locked down.

The good news is that the death rate seems to be falling pretty rapidly (~350 per day). About half the death rate in the UK and obviously, far lower than the US.

I would have expected the infection rate in Spain to have slowed to a crawl by now. Anyone have any credible data on why this continues?
At a guess, the amount of testing being done..... the more you test, the more you'll find. Spain has done double the tests per million inhabitants than the UK or France and more (on that measure) than the USA.

But I regard all the numbers as dubious..... and comparisons moreso. Certainly daily updates are inaccurate as some counts are too late to make the cut for the day in question, or maybe over/under reported due to weekend/bank holiday, etc. Plus each state has it's own subset of sources they take their numbers from and what does or doesn't count. I also believe some figures are being actively massaged..... and not just in China/Iran. In the UK we are just starting to see reporting from the "normal" sources - and so far that shows an unexplained gap between those reported as dying of Covid-19 and an increase in overall deaths...
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Old Apr 25th 2020, 12:26 pm
  #1548  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by pommybird View Post
I know in the UK we are starting to see a decrease in the fall rate of new cases as more testing is being brought in, could that be the case for you guys ie. more testing means more new cases.

I must say the measures in the UK were not as strict as Italy or Spain, which does worry me slightly as we are very much on the same trajectory. Without the draconian measure put in place in Italy and Spain, will we exceed the death rates of Italy and Spain here in the UK
Listening to the BBC on the babble box this morning it sounded like the UK is reversing the lockdown measures although it might just be a few folk jumping the gun.
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Old Apr 25th 2020, 12:39 pm
  #1549  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by Bipat View Post
Could it be the timing of when the lockdown started. See my above post ---We went from strict masks and temperature taking before entry into public buildings in March in India to nothing in the UK (apart from handwashing advice!)
When did Spain start strict lockdown??
13 March.
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Old Apr 25th 2020, 1:13 pm
  #1550  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by amideislas View Post
13 March.
About the same time then.
Although the Indian cancelling incoming tourist etc. visas, earlier and then about at that time most incoming flights and sealing borders of affected States helped.
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Old Apr 25th 2020, 1:38 pm
  #1551  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by BristolUK View Post

You said the health workers had no greater risk. A definite statement.
Then you say "Perhaps the PPE use is what's enabling them to have a death rate the same as the background population?"
So now you allow for the possibility it's the PPE that allows them to have the same rate, which can only mean that they may be at greater risk but for the use of PPE.

You now contradict (or at least doubt) your definite statement but you will maintain you were right all along and everyone else who picked you up on it was wrong.

I think this duplicity is what's bad for the forum. And as I said earlier, it's very Trump like.
No, I said:
I heard an interesting analysis of the UK data on Radio 4 yesterday on "More or Less" - they did a basic calculation of how much more dangerous covid has been for NHS workers than the general background population and the results was........... it was the same.
That is not a definitive statement, it is mentioning what I heard on a sensible radio show looking at the data.
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Old Apr 25th 2020, 2:08 pm
  #1552  
 
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Young Covid patients and stroke.

Moral of story, do not delay in going to hospital.

Also, it isn't "just like flu".

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt....co/D8qNww9xkG
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Old Apr 25th 2020, 2:09 pm
  #1553  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
No, I said:
That is not a definitive statement, it is mentioning what I heard on a sensible radio show looking at the data.
I see. So when you said
Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
The reality is that healthcare workers should go to work not in the sort of paranoid fear that so many appear to live in, but in the knowledge that they are currently at no more risk than the general public, regardless of the reason for that.
That's not what really what you said. I mean it's there in black and white where you say the reality is and then they are no more at risk.

And now you're saying that's not what you said when you said it. Duplicity.
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Old Apr 25th 2020, 2:26 pm
  #1554  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by BristolUK View Post
I see. So when you said

That's not what really what you said. I mean it's there in black and white where you say the reality is and then they are no more at risk.

And now you're saying that's not what you said when you said it. Duplicity.
That's not what I said at the start of the discussion when you first responded.

And they are at no more risk of death than the general public - that what the data say.
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Old Apr 25th 2020, 2:37 pm
  #1555  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by Chatter Static View Post
Listening to the BBC on the babble box this morning it sounded like the UK is reversing the lockdown measures although it might just be a few folk jumping the gun.
I was going to go out for my daily exercise earlier - I left the house and got a couple of streets away and there were so many people walking and in cars that I turned around. I noticed a slight increase in people out when I've been jogging and cycling this week, but a sunny day today seems to have brought a lot out.
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Old Apr 25th 2020, 2:44 pm
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post

And they are at no more risk of death than the general public - that what the data say.
No, it isn't, no matter how many times you repeat it. It's what a certain limited and incomplete set of numbers says when selected and interpreted in a very specific way.

Not at all the same thing.
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Old Apr 25th 2020, 2:49 pm
  #1557  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter View Post
No, it isn't, no matter how many times you repeat it. It's what a certain limited and incomplete set of numbers says when selected and interpreted in a very specific way.

Not at all the same thing.
With the data available it showed that they were at no more risk of death than the public. The numbers were not limited and incomplete, it covered all known deaths to-date, they were not "interpreted" in a very specific way, the radio show seemed perplexed that the result had come out that way because they had undertaken a very clear anf balanced analysis.

You may not like that, but they were very clear with the data they used. That may change, it may be that less healthcare staff die proportionally than the public or indeed more, but the data available at the time showed it was the same.
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Old Apr 25th 2020, 2:59 pm
  #1558  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Like the stopped watch.
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Old Apr 25th 2020, 3:03 pm
  #1559  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by Red Eric View Post
Like the stopped watch.
You mean I'm right at least twice a day?
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Old Apr 25th 2020, 3:10 pm
  #1560  
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Default Re: CORONAVIRUS PART II

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
You mean I'm right at least twice a day?
That's about 0.14% of the time, if we take it as full minutes.

Yeah - I guess that's about right.
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