Go Back  British Expats > General > Take it Outside!
Reload this Page >

Brexit prediction thread.

Brexit prediction thread.

Old Jun 7th 2019, 9:24 am
  #46  
Reasonable Bitch
 
Joined: Feb 2011
Location: Mallorca
Posts: 17,683
amideislas has a reputation beyond reputeamideislas has a reputation beyond reputeamideislas has a reputation beyond reputeamideislas has a reputation beyond reputeamideislas has a reputation beyond reputeamideislas has a reputation beyond reputeamideislas has a reputation beyond reputeamideislas has a reputation beyond reputeamideislas has a reputation beyond reputeamideislas has a reputation beyond reputeamideislas has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Brexit prediction thread.

No, it has precious little to do with either side, or the EU. Domestic discontent has brewing for years. It's home grown.

Because "leavers" and "remainers" didn't even exist while that pot was cooking, the only thing that connects either side to "the root causes" are leavers' refusal to acknowledge it.
amideislas is offline  
Old Jun 7th 2019, 10:07 am
  #47  
idealist
 
stevenglish1's Avatar
 
Joined: May 2013
Posts: 6,061
stevenglish1 has a reputation beyond reputestevenglish1 has a reputation beyond reputestevenglish1 has a reputation beyond reputestevenglish1 has a reputation beyond reputestevenglish1 has a reputation beyond reputestevenglish1 has a reputation beyond reputestevenglish1 has a reputation beyond reputestevenglish1 has a reputation beyond reputestevenglish1 has a reputation beyond reputestevenglish1 has a reputation beyond reputestevenglish1 has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Brexit prediction thread.

Originally Posted by amideislas View Post
We know the root causes. Those who [are led to] blame the EU deny it. That's the whole problem.
Originally Posted by amideislas View Post
No, it has precious little to do with either side, or the EU. Domestic discontent has brewing for years. It's home grown.

Because "leavers" and "remainers" didn't even exist while that pot was cooking, the only thing that connects either side to "the root causes" are leavers' refusal to acknowledge it.
There you go, blaming leave again and ironically refusing to acknowledge that they are a symptom not a cause. You're right, the unrest was there before this whole mess, but why ? Have a look at what tadpoles do when they are more in number than the pond can sustain, they turn on each other.
stevenglish1 is offline  
Old Jun 7th 2019, 11:05 am
  #48  
 
Lion in Winter's Avatar
 
Joined: Aug 2003
Location: City of Broad Shoulders
Posts: 54,722
Lion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Brexit prediction thread.

Originally Posted by stevenglish1 View Post
There you go, blaming leave again and ironically refusing to acknowledge that they are a symptom not a cause. You're right, the unrest was there before this whole mess, but why ? Have a look at what tadpoles do when they are more in number than the pond can sustain, they turn on each other.
I thnk it would be a good idea to stop using this language of "sides" altogether. The country is not divided into two monolithic tribes, desptie Farages's and others' attempt to make it so, and it's not doing us any good at all. We aren't 12, and the country is in a serious mess which is affecting a lot of people. The whole "sides" thing reduces conversations to ideological headlines with little content and no help for anyone. That sort of thing opens the door to populists, Farage, and other unprincipled people like Boris. and divides people to work against their own interests. One thing that Labour has got right is campaigning against the austerity measures, instead of allowing the whole discourse to be a brexit-only discussion. Sadly, however, their infighting has prevented them from being effective enough as an opposition party.
Lion in Winter is offline  
Old Jun 7th 2019, 12:23 pm
  #49  
idealist
 
stevenglish1's Avatar
 
Joined: May 2013
Posts: 6,061
stevenglish1 has a reputation beyond reputestevenglish1 has a reputation beyond reputestevenglish1 has a reputation beyond reputestevenglish1 has a reputation beyond reputestevenglish1 has a reputation beyond reputestevenglish1 has a reputation beyond reputestevenglish1 has a reputation beyond reputestevenglish1 has a reputation beyond reputestevenglish1 has a reputation beyond reputestevenglish1 has a reputation beyond reputestevenglish1 has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Brexit prediction thread.

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter View Post
I thnk it would be a good idea to stop using this language of "sides" altogether. The country is not divided into two monolithic tribes, desptie Farages's and others' attempt to make it so, and it's not doing us any good at all. We aren't 12, and the country is in a serious mess which is affecting a lot of people. The whole "sides" thing reduces conversations to ideological headlines with little content and no help for anyone. That sort of thing opens the door to populists, Farage, and other unprincipled people like Boris. and divides people to work against their own interests. One thing that Labour has got right is campaigning against the austerity measures, instead of allowing the whole discourse to be a brexit-only discussion. Sadly, however, their infighting has prevented them from being effective enough as an opposition party.
Trouble is, it always seems to boil down to sides, there are very few if any posters on here that don't reduce it to that when pressed, most of the time not very hard. The division is deep seated and has been there for years, said it years ago this was a perfect storm, brexit was just a catalyst. Not limited to the UK either, your average man on the street doesn't care about Europe or globalism, he just wants a roof over his head and food for his family. He sees that as under threat, and someone has to be the blame.
stevenglish1 is offline  
Old Jun 7th 2019, 12:39 pm
  #50  
 
Lion in Winter's Avatar
 
Joined: Aug 2003
Location: City of Broad Shoulders
Posts: 54,722
Lion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Brexit prediction thread.

Originally Posted by stevenglish1 View Post
Trouble is, it always seems to boil down to sides, there are very few if any posters on here that don't reduce it to that when pressed, most of the time not very hard. The division is deep seated and has been there for years, said it years ago this was a perfect storm, brexit was just a catalyst. Not limited to the UK either, your average man on the street doesn't care about Europe or globalism, he just wants a roof over his head and food for his family. He sees that as under threat, and someone has to be the blame.
I suspect that the division is planted, rather than seated. I saw it under Thatcher, and I can see it now. That's what propaganda does - creates divisions and then feeds off them.
Lion in Winter is offline  
Old Jun 7th 2019, 12:43 pm
  #51  
FreeThinker
Thread Starter
 
jimenato's Avatar
 
Joined: Nov 2009
Location: the moors and levels
Posts: 8,959
jimenato has a reputation beyond reputejimenato has a reputation beyond reputejimenato has a reputation beyond reputejimenato has a reputation beyond reputejimenato has a reputation beyond reputejimenato has a reputation beyond reputejimenato has a reputation beyond reputejimenato has a reputation beyond reputejimenato has a reputation beyond reputejimenato has a reputation beyond reputejimenato has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Brexit prediction thread.

Originally Posted by stevenglish1 View Post
Trouble is, it always seems to boil down to sides, there are very few if any posters on here that don't reduce it to that when pressed, most of the time not very hard. The division is deep seated and has been there for years, said it years ago this was a perfect storm, brexit was just a catalyst. Not limited to the UK either, your average man on the street doesn't care about Europe or globalism, he just wants a roof over his head and food for his family. He sees that as under threat, and someone has to be the blame.
You seem to be alluding to something that's two-sided but isn't Brexit that's the fundamental cause of this scism.

What is it?
jimenato is offline  
Old Jun 7th 2019, 12:56 pm
  #52  
Devourer of Haribo
 
DaveLovesDee's Avatar
 
Joined: Jul 2007
Location: Abertawe, Cymru
Posts: 20,830
DaveLovesDee has a reputation beyond reputeDaveLovesDee has a reputation beyond reputeDaveLovesDee has a reputation beyond reputeDaveLovesDee has a reputation beyond reputeDaveLovesDee has a reputation beyond reputeDaveLovesDee has a reputation beyond reputeDaveLovesDee has a reputation beyond reputeDaveLovesDee has a reputation beyond reputeDaveLovesDee has a reputation beyond reputeDaveLovesDee has a reputation beyond reputeDaveLovesDee has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Brexit prediction thread.

Originally Posted by stevenglish1 View Post
.If everyone was as intelligent as they purported on here, then more people would be willing to do the hard yards and seek out the root cause instead of sniping at people who've reached different conclusions. The bigger picture here, bigger than brexit could hope to be, is that the British public have little or no faith or trust in the ruling classes or the democracy we hold so dear. Britain is ****ed in or out now as the divisions are just too deep. Funnily enough no one wants to take any responsibility for that either.
No-one trusts politicians, because many of the same faces are part of the same problem.

The people responsible for the issues we're told are the EU's fault have been rewarded many times over instead of being held accountable. Here are some of the people and why they ahould be held accountable.

Bankers and the UK government Lax regulation and greed. The reason why government imposed temporary austerity measures.
The UK Government. Austerity was supposed to be a short-term fix. It's been continually used to reduce funding to essentials such as the needy and vulnerable, including those on social security and the Police.
The UK Government. For privatising the NHS by stealth. We already have many private companies doing work that NHS staff did. There are some savings, but little accountability. Also, the NHS funding hasnt kept pace with the needs of the population. More pepole are waiting longer for operations because private surgery is taking up NHS operating theatres. Yes, this brings money in for the NHS, but it doesnt buy an extra OR.
The UK Government. For underfunding education, and for the forced privatising of poorly-performing schools. Academies are a good idea at all, in my opinion.

None of the above will be fixed by leaving the EU. And people are divided because the old tactic of turning the people against each other and the EU makes them less focused on blaming the government and those really responsible.
​​​​​​

Last edited by DaveLovesDee; Jun 7th 2019 at 1:18 pm.
DaveLovesDee is offline  
Old Jun 7th 2019, 12:59 pm
  #53  
 
Lion in Winter's Avatar
 
Joined: Aug 2003
Location: City of Broad Shoulders
Posts: 54,722
Lion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Brexit prediction thread.

Originally Posted by DaveLovesDee View Post
]

No-one trusts politicians, because many of the same faces are part of the same problem.

The people responsible for the issues we're told are the EU's fault have been rewarded many times over instead of being held accountable. Here are some of the people and why they ahould be held accountable.

Bankers and the UK government Lax regulation and greed. The reason why government imposed temporary austerity measures.
The UK Government. Austerity was supposed to be a short-term fix. It's been continually used to reduce funding to essentials such as the needy and vulnerable, including those on social security and the Police.
The UK Government. For privatising the NHS by stealth. We already have many private companies doing work that NHS staff did. There are some savings, but little accountability. Also, the NHS funding hasnt kept pace with the needs of the population. More pepole are waiting longer for operations because private surgery is taking up NHS operating theatres. Yes, this brings money in for the NHS, but it does buy an extra OR.
The UK Government. For underfunding education, and for the forced privatising of poorly-performing schools. Academies are a good idea at all, in my opinion.

None of the above will be fixed by leaving the EU. And people are divided because the old tactic of turning the people against each other and the EU makes them less focused on blaming the government and those really responsible.
​​​​​​
​​​​​​​This.
Lion in Winter is offline  
Old Jun 7th 2019, 1:06 pm
  #54  
Democracy advocate
 
Cape Blue's Avatar
 
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 11,880
Cape Blue has a reputation beyond reputeCape Blue has a reputation beyond reputeCape Blue has a reputation beyond reputeCape Blue has a reputation beyond reputeCape Blue has a reputation beyond reputeCape Blue has a reputation beyond reputeCape Blue has a reputation beyond reputeCape Blue has a reputation beyond reputeCape Blue has a reputation beyond reputeCape Blue has a reputation beyond reputeCape Blue has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Brexit prediction thread.

Originally Posted by stevenglish1 View Post
Brexit won't happen, all the country's subsequent problems will be blamed on the brexit debacle, and voting turnouts will be embarrassingly low due to democracy being exposed as non existent in Britain.

What I'd like to be able to predict is that people will vote for a change in the status quo, but they don't have the taste for it anymore . Mark Twain was absolutely right
This.
Cape Blue is offline  
Old Jun 7th 2019, 1:09 pm
  #55  
Who - me?
 
Red Eric's Avatar
 
Joined: Jul 2014
Location: Arcos de Valdevez "Onde Portugal se fez"
Posts: 12,132
Red Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Brexit prediction thread.

Originally Posted by Cape Blue View Post
This.
What changed your mind?
Red Eric is offline  
Old Jun 7th 2019, 1:09 pm
  #56  
Democracy advocate
 
Cape Blue's Avatar
 
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 11,880
Cape Blue has a reputation beyond reputeCape Blue has a reputation beyond reputeCape Blue has a reputation beyond reputeCape Blue has a reputation beyond reputeCape Blue has a reputation beyond reputeCape Blue has a reputation beyond reputeCape Blue has a reputation beyond reputeCape Blue has a reputation beyond reputeCape Blue has a reputation beyond reputeCape Blue has a reputation beyond reputeCape Blue has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Brexit prediction thread.

Originally Posted by Red Eric View Post
It wasn't a loaded question.

Different people have different interpretation of what Brexit means. There are any number who are not going to accept a close future relationship, such as Norway etc have, as Brexit. I couldn't remember for sure but had a feeling you have used the term BRINO in a manner that suggested you were amongst them.

It was only a matter of clearing up exactly what your prediction is.

I'm fairly certain that eg paulry and Cape Blue will claim Brexit hasn't happened if we do end up with an EEA type arrangement of any sort (which is definitely Brexit and of the most likely kind, in my opinion).
It won't - the desires of leave voters were very clear - no ECJ, no net £10Bn a year, no FOM - these are the sensible red lines that Theresa May had and are the only way to honour the spirit of the referendum result. An EEA-type of arrangement just makes us the EU's bitch.
Cape Blue is offline  
Old Jun 7th 2019, 1:10 pm
  #57  
Who - me?
 
Red Eric's Avatar
 
Joined: Jul 2014
Location: Arcos de Valdevez "Onde Portugal se fez"
Posts: 12,132
Red Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Brexit prediction thread.

I was talking about you, not to you.
Red Eric is offline  
Old Jun 7th 2019, 1:13 pm
  #58  
Democracy advocate
 
Cape Blue's Avatar
 
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 11,880
Cape Blue has a reputation beyond reputeCape Blue has a reputation beyond reputeCape Blue has a reputation beyond reputeCape Blue has a reputation beyond reputeCape Blue has a reputation beyond reputeCape Blue has a reputation beyond reputeCape Blue has a reputation beyond reputeCape Blue has a reputation beyond reputeCape Blue has a reputation beyond reputeCape Blue has a reputation beyond reputeCape Blue has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Brexit prediction thread.

Originally Posted by Red Eric View Post
What changed your mind?
The success of the elites in overturning the democratic vote - you see it in African bongo countries, never thought I'd see it in the UK.

The long delay giving enough time for demographic change to favour remain in a second ("people's", "confirmatory",) vote, along with a persistent project fear encapsulating things that have nothing to do with Brexit (most of the automotive stories) and badly extrapolated projections of poverty (the 9% GDP), will also have turned some people into worriers and change their vote. Together this will likely change the vote in a second ref and the elites can then sit back and breath easy - they'll still be able to import millions to suppress wages and ramp rents - phew!
Cape Blue is offline  
Old Jun 7th 2019, 1:18 pm
  #59  
Who - me?
 
Red Eric's Avatar
 
Joined: Jul 2014
Location: Arcos de Valdevez "Onde Portugal se fez"
Posts: 12,132
Red Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond reputeRed Eric has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Brexit prediction thread.

So you're actually having two bites at that cherry.

One is that further democratic expression will be brought to bear on the current parliamentary impasse and the other that the eventual outcome won't be "true Brexit".
Red Eric is offline  
Old Jun 7th 2019, 1:28 pm
  #60  
Democracy advocate
 
Cape Blue's Avatar
 
Joined: Mar 2006
Posts: 11,880
Cape Blue has a reputation beyond reputeCape Blue has a reputation beyond reputeCape Blue has a reputation beyond reputeCape Blue has a reputation beyond reputeCape Blue has a reputation beyond reputeCape Blue has a reputation beyond reputeCape Blue has a reputation beyond reputeCape Blue has a reputation beyond reputeCape Blue has a reputation beyond reputeCape Blue has a reputation beyond reputeCape Blue has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Brexit prediction thread.

Originally Posted by Red Eric View Post
So you're actually having two bites at that cherry.

One is that further democratic expression will be brought to bear on the current parliamentary impasse and the other that the eventual outcome won't be "true Brexit".
"if that happened" - I was replying to your hypothetical.
Cape Blue is offline  

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service - Do Not Sell My Personal Information

Copyright © 2018 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.