Go Back  British Expats > General > Take it Outside!
Reload this Page >

Big population drop and change coming

Big population drop and change coming

Old Jul 16th 2020, 1:23 pm
  #31  
F.orum Ape
 
Shard's Avatar
 
Joined: Nov 2012
Location: UK
Posts: 19,981
Shard has a reputation beyond reputeShard has a reputation beyond reputeShard has a reputation beyond reputeShard has a reputation beyond reputeShard has a reputation beyond reputeShard has a reputation beyond reputeShard has a reputation beyond reputeShard has a reputation beyond reputeShard has a reputation beyond reputeShard has a reputation beyond reputeShard has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

Saw the video version of that story. Nigeria becoming a superpower of 800 million was the point that surprised me. I think there is such a change in automation/AI on the horizon (the 20-50 year horizon) that most people now are unable to imagine how the world will be transformed. Work will not be done by humans. All this assuming we are still around. A new serious pandemic might render the above hypothesis moot.
Shard is offline  
Old Jul 16th 2020, 1:30 pm
  #32  
Oscar nominated
 
BristolUK's Avatar
 
Joined: Jan 2008
Location: Moncton, NB, CANADA
Posts: 33,285
BristolUK has a reputation beyond reputeBristolUK has a reputation beyond reputeBristolUK has a reputation beyond reputeBristolUK has a reputation beyond reputeBristolUK has a reputation beyond reputeBristolUK has a reputation beyond reputeBristolUK has a reputation beyond reputeBristolUK has a reputation beyond reputeBristolUK has a reputation beyond reputeBristolUK has a reputation beyond reputeBristolUK has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

Originally Posted by Shard View Post
Nigeria becoming a superpower of 800 million
Imagine the emails
BristolUK is offline  
Old Jul 16th 2020, 1:34 pm
  #33  
Thread Starter
 
Lion in Winter's Avatar
 
Joined: Aug 2003
Location: City of Broad Shoulders
Posts: 55,357
Lion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

Originally Posted by BristolUK View Post
Imagine the emails
They won't need the emails. They'll be running things.
Lion in Winter is offline  
Old Jul 16th 2020, 2:32 pm
  #34  
Lt Col (Retd)
 
Pulaski's Avatar
 
Joined: Dec 2001
Location: Dixie, ex UK
Posts: 48,561
Pulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter View Post
They won't need the emails. They'll be running things.
Er, India already has a much larger population (and IMO is a better analogy than China when looking at the future of Nigeria), and India is not "running things" today.

India is a source of cheap(er) labour (mostly out-sourced tasks "at home", not through immigration), and the US and UK can cherry-pick the brightest and best Indians to give visas to, but I see nothing that would point towards Nigeria "running things" 80 years from now, anymore than India is "running things" today.
Pulaski is offline  
Old Jul 16th 2020, 2:58 pm
  #35  
F.orum Ape
 
Shard's Avatar
 
Joined: Nov 2012
Location: UK
Posts: 19,981
Shard has a reputation beyond reputeShard has a reputation beyond reputeShard has a reputation beyond reputeShard has a reputation beyond reputeShard has a reputation beyond reputeShard has a reputation beyond reputeShard has a reputation beyond reputeShard has a reputation beyond reputeShard has a reputation beyond reputeShard has a reputation beyond reputeShard has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

Originally Posted by Pulaski View Post
Er, India already has a much larger population (and IMO is a better analogy than China when looking at the future of Nigeria), and India is not "running things" today.

India is a source of cheap(er) labour (mostly out-sourced tasks "at home", not through immigration), and the US and UK can cherry-pick the brightest and best Indians to give visas to, but I see nothing that would point towards Nigeria "running things" 80 years from now, anymore than India is "running things" today.
I think that's slightly lacking in imagination. Huge opportunity abounds in Africa and in Nigeria, and the Nigerians are industrious people. India's chapter is not yet written, yes the new internet age made them well placed to partner with the US, but their economy grows and deepens and in time they may well be able to "run things" (to the extend that that nationalist model persists). 80 years is a very long time !
Shard is offline  
Old Jul 16th 2020, 3:07 pm
  #36  
Lt Col (Retd)
 
Pulaski's Avatar
 
Joined: Dec 2001
Location: Dixie, ex UK
Posts: 48,561
Pulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

Originally Posted by Shard View Post
I think that's slightly lacking in imagination. ....
And I think your post is long on imagination and short on reality. Touché!
Pulaski is offline  
Old Jul 16th 2020, 3:09 pm
  #37  
F.orum Ape
 
Shard's Avatar
 
Joined: Nov 2012
Location: UK
Posts: 19,981
Shard has a reputation beyond reputeShard has a reputation beyond reputeShard has a reputation beyond reputeShard has a reputation beyond reputeShard has a reputation beyond reputeShard has a reputation beyond reputeShard has a reputation beyond reputeShard has a reputation beyond reputeShard has a reputation beyond reputeShard has a reputation beyond reputeShard has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

Originally Posted by Pulaski View Post
And I think your post is long on imagination and short on reality. Touché!
Saw it coming Lt Col !
(Well the first part, reality is in process !)

Shard is offline  
Old Jul 16th 2020, 3:29 pm
  #38  
Lost in BE Cyberspace
 
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 13,807
Bipat has a reputation beyond reputeBipat has a reputation beyond reputeBipat has a reputation beyond reputeBipat has a reputation beyond reputeBipat has a reputation beyond reputeBipat has a reputation beyond reputeBipat has a reputation beyond reputeBipat has a reputation beyond reputeBipat has a reputation beyond reputeBipat has a reputation beyond reputeBipat has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

Originally Posted by Shard View Post
I think that's slightly lacking in imagination. Huge opportunity abounds in Africa and in Nigeria, and the Nigerians are industrious people. India's chapter is not yet written, yes the new internet age made them well placed to partner with the US, but their economy grows and deepens and in time they may well be able to "run things" (to the extend that that nationalist model persists). 80 years is a very long time !
India is a very young population. Half under 25. Also a great deal of unemployment amongst the young. As a country they tend to be 'over-educated'! (If that is possible).
They are predicted to be the largest economy in 50+ years.
UK slow Brexit upset the FTD talks. Yes US ties.

https://www.businesstoday.in/current...ry/409616.html

Now seem more with EU. Merkel has favoured this always. EU summit yesterday.

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/p...-15-july-2020/

Bipat is offline  
Old Jul 16th 2020, 4:12 pm
  #39  
Lost in BE Cyberspace
 
Jsmth321's Avatar
 
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 23,392
Jsmth321 has a reputation beyond reputeJsmth321 has a reputation beyond reputeJsmth321 has a reputation beyond reputeJsmth321 has a reputation beyond reputeJsmth321 has a reputation beyond reputeJsmth321 has a reputation beyond reputeJsmth321 has a reputation beyond reputeJsmth321 has a reputation beyond reputeJsmth321 has a reputation beyond reputeJsmth321 has a reputation beyond reputeJsmth321 has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

Originally Posted by paulry View Post
Okay, firstly we're talking about the future in relation to the drop in developed country population numbers and how retirement ages will increase and how people will have to manage that change to suit.

A future solution could be like what we have in Australia: A government mandated superannuation scheme. And while it's not perfect, it means everyone will have a decent sized nest egg by the time they retire. It's limited use to those of us today who have spent most of our working lives without the scheme but those who spend their entire working life with the scheme can expect to be sitting with by current values a million dollars or more by the time they are in their early 60s.

This is what we have in Australia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supera...n_in_Australia

...And there's talk here of increasing the percentage contribution over the next couple of years meaning everyone's nest eggs will be even larger in the future.

I'm not sure what the current pension arrangements are in Canada, but it's likely that Canada could adopt a similar system to Australia's.

We currently have the Canadian Pension Plan, everyone who works currently pays 5.25% and their employer contributes 5.25%, self employed 10.5%. It isn't however designed to live on but to be a supplement to other financial resources be it self savings, or retirement pension through employment which isn't common anymore for the private sector.

They have been making changes to CPP, but its still inadequate to support a senior especially a senior paying market rent as there is a shortage of subsidized housing in most of Canada.

Average and maximum amounts

Table here.

Last edited by Jsmth321; Jul 16th 2020 at 4:20 pm.
Jsmth321 is offline  
Old Jul 16th 2020, 7:51 pm
  #40  
Thread Starter
 
Lion in Winter's Avatar
 
Joined: Aug 2003
Location: City of Broad Shoulders
Posts: 55,357
Lion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

Originally Posted by Pulaski View Post
Er, India already has a much larger population (and IMO is a better analogy than China when looking at the future of Nigeria), and India is not "running things" today.

India is a source of cheap(er) labour (mostly out-sourced tasks "at home", not through immigration), and the US and UK can cherry-pick the brightest and best Indians to give visas to, but I see nothing that would point towards Nigeria "running things" 80 years from now, anymore than India is "running things" today.
What? a) I didn't say India was running things today nor that they would be running things in the future b) I made a slightly lighthearted response regarding Nigerian fraud emails (hope lightheartedness is still allowed) because c) Nigeria is, apparently, going to have the second largest population in the world.

The power and population shifts are going to be huge, and I suspect that all this "brightest and best" picking idea by countries that are now dominant will become an illusion, if the Lancet model is correct.
Lion in Winter is offline  
Old Jul 16th 2020, 7:57 pm
  #41  
Lt Col (Retd)
 
Pulaski's Avatar
 
Joined: Dec 2001
Location: Dixie, ex UK
Posts: 48,561
Pulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter View Post
What? a) I didn't say India was running things today nor that they would be running things in the future ....
No, I did, because I am not sure why you think Nigeria will be "running things" in future, when India, which already has a much larger population, and (per Bipat) an "over educated" one at that, isn't running things now.

Last edited by Pulaski; Jul 16th 2020 at 8:00 pm.
Pulaski is offline  
Old Jul 16th 2020, 7:59 pm
  #42  
Thread Starter
 
Lion in Winter's Avatar
 
Joined: Aug 2003
Location: City of Broad Shoulders
Posts: 55,357
Lion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

Originally Posted by Pulaski View Post
No, I did, because I am not sure why you think Nigeria will be "running things" in future, when India, which already has a much larger population, and (per Bipat) an "over educated" one at that, isn't running things now.
Oh FFS Don't be so bloody literal. It was a lighthearted exchange and I refuse to have an argument with you about it. Go and install a cooktop or something.
Lion in Winter is offline  
Old Jul 16th 2020, 8:02 pm
  #43  
Lt Col (Retd)
 
Pulaski's Avatar
 
Joined: Dec 2001
Location: Dixie, ex UK
Posts: 48,561
Pulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond reputePulaski has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter View Post
....l. It was a lighthearted exchange and I refuse to have an argument with you about it. .....
Please take this out of TIO!
Pulaski is offline  
Old Jul 16th 2020, 8:04 pm
  #44  
Thread Starter
 
Lion in Winter's Avatar
 
Joined: Aug 2003
Location: City of Broad Shoulders
Posts: 55,357
Lion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond reputeLion in Winter has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

Originally Posted by Pulaski View Post
Please take this out of TIO!


I don't think arguments are compulsory, even in here.
Lion in Winter is offline  
Old Jul 16th 2020, 11:03 pm
  #45  
Oscar nominated
 
BristolUK's Avatar
 
Joined: Jan 2008
Location: Moncton, NB, CANADA
Posts: 33,285
BristolUK has a reputation beyond reputeBristolUK has a reputation beyond reputeBristolUK has a reputation beyond reputeBristolUK has a reputation beyond reputeBristolUK has a reputation beyond reputeBristolUK has a reputation beyond reputeBristolUK has a reputation beyond reputeBristolUK has a reputation beyond reputeBristolUK has a reputation beyond reputeBristolUK has a reputation beyond reputeBristolUK has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter View Post
...I made a slightly lighthearted response regarding Nigerian fraud emails (hope lightheartedness is still allowed)...
Given my email comment was humorous/lighthearted, and it got a lighthearted response I think so
BristolUK is offline  

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service - Do Not Sell My Personal Information

Copyright © 2018 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.