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Big population drop and change coming

Big population drop and change coming

Old Jul 15th 2020, 4:11 pm
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Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

Japan is the first country to really experience the biggest downside of population decrease - far too many old people compared to young. When 80% of your population have age related health issues, you need a steady supply of young health workers. Importing them from China only works as long as they are willing to leave, and with China's economic advances it becomes a lot less attractive. Robots might really save the day for real in Japan.
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Old Jul 15th 2020, 4:14 pm
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Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

Originally Posted by Anian View Post
Importing them from China only works as long as they are willing to leave, and with China's economic advances it becomes a lot less attractive.
Don't jump to that conclusion. I've seen plenty of reports on NHK News over the years where a bunch of young Chinese have entered Japan in a tour group and then promptly disappeared, causing the immigration authorities to go looking for them. The infamous 'training programs' offered by some dodgy Japanese employers also mainly attract Chinese applicants.



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Old Jul 15th 2020, 4:21 pm
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Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

Originally Posted by DigitalGhost View Post
Japan's population 'crisis' has always intrigued me. As anybody who has ever been to Tokyo will tell you, it is a massively over-populated country. A landmass not much bigger than the UK but with much more inhospitable territory and twice the population size. .....
I had, in fact still have, somewhere, a Guiness Book of Answers, from the 1980's that had data table for all countries of the world inside the front and back covers, and at that time Japan was the only country in the world that was both larger (IIRC the land area is about 50% greater than the UK, but per DG, it is mostly hilly/ mountainous) than the UK in land area and having a greater population density. The last time I looked, on-line of course, there are now a fair number of such countries, including India.
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Old Jul 15th 2020, 4:56 pm
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Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

Originally Posted by Anian View Post
Japan is the first country to really experience the biggest downside of population decrease - far too many old people compared to young. When 80% of your population have age related health issues, you need a steady supply of young health workers. Importing them from China only works as long as they are willing to leave, and with China's economic advances it becomes a lot less attractive. Robots might really save the day for real in Japan.
Well apparently many, many countries are going to be in the upside down age triangle situation, with populations that are a lot smaller and older, so proportionately many fewer young workers worldwide overall to support the rest of the population. Hence the impending competition for bodies from abroad to rebuild populations, and not just as "migrant workers" I'm sure. This will be permanent population change. It's really interesting. The whole current idea of what immigration is and what it's for may change.

Re China, apparently their population will also be shrinking drastically, so they may not wish to export as many people as one might think.
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Old Jul 15th 2020, 5:01 pm
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Default Re: Big population drop and change coming








The graphs.
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Old Jul 15th 2020, 5:36 pm
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Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter View Post
Well apparently many, many countries are going to be in the upside down age triangle situation, with populations that are a lot smaller and older, so proportionately many fewer young workers worldwide overall to support the rest of the population. Hence the impending competition for bodies from abroad to rebuild populations, and not just as "migrant workers" I'm sure. This will be permanent population change. It's really interesting. The whole current idea of what immigration is and what it's for may change.

Re China, apparently their population will also be shrinking drastically, so they may not wish to export as many people as one might think.
Well the elephant in the room (on this thread so far) is that retirement ages are going to have to increase, but that said, it is odd there have been recent discussions, both on BE and elsewhere, about the coming revolution in manufacturing and commerce that will dramatically cut the need for labour, and what are all these unneeded workers going to do? One notable area, as it is notoriously labour intensive, but is predicted to become much less so, is truck driving, where an automomous truck wouldn't need a driver, or at least not one in evey vehicle, in a "virtual train" of vehicles travelling together. Overall I suspect that the impacts of automation and declining birthrates will largely offset each other, and the overall impact will be relatively benign.
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Old Jul 15th 2020, 6:15 pm
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Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

Fewer foreigners = more Brits. Rule Britannia.
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Old Jul 15th 2020, 6:24 pm
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Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

Originally Posted by Pulaski View Post
Well the elephant in the room (on this thread so far) is that retirement ages are going to have to increase, but that said, it is odd there have been recent discussions, both on BE and elsewhere, about the coming revolution in manufacturing and commerce that will dramatically cut the need for labour, and what are all these unneeded workers going to do? One notable area, as it is notoriously labour intensive, but is predicted to become much less so, is truck driving, where an automomous truck wouldn't need a driver, or at least not one in evey vehicle, in a "virtual train" of vehicles travelling together. Overall I suspect that the impacts of automation and declining birthrates will largely offset each other, and the overall impact will be relatively benign.
It looks like a good time to end the human ponzi scheme and move towards people planning for self-funded retirement - particularly if they expect to retire before the steadily inceasing state sponsored age. Also, ending compulsory age-related retirement - though we don't see so much of that anymore...
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Old Jul 15th 2020, 7:08 pm
  #24  
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Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

Originally Posted by paulry View Post
It looks like a good time to end the human ponzi scheme and move towards people planning for self-funded retirement - particularly if they expect to retire before the steadily inceasing state sponsored age. Also, ending compulsory age-related retirement - though we don't see so much of that anymore...
Yeah, let's go back to the good old days when the peasants worked until they dropped!!
Health care? Let 'em die!
Pensions? Let 'em starve!
Oh and education? why bother? Get the kids straight into factories once they can walk!
Maybe we should look to removing the "weaker" specimens and only permitting approved people to breed too, eh?

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Old Jul 15th 2020, 11:28 pm
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Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

Originally Posted by macliam View Post
Yeah, let's go back to the good old days when the peasants worked until they dropped!!
Health care? Let 'em die!
Pensions? Let 'em starve!
Oh and education? why bother? Get the kids straight into factories once they can walk!
Maybe we should look to removing the "weaker" specimens and only permitting approved people to breed too, eh?
No, if you want to retire early then you have to take responsibility to make it happen. None of us apart from the frail and infirm are entitled to early pension.
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Old Jul 16th 2020, 12:13 am
  #26  
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Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

OK I think perhaps some of us are underestimating the scale of these population changes. This isn't about "getting your pension". Some countries' populations are going to be one half or even less they are now and grossly short of ways to sustain the kind of lifestyle these developed countries now have.. Other countries' populations will be many times bigger, such as Nigeria. Think about what this will mean on a large scale. The entire composition of some populations will change drastically and some parts of the world will be working very hard to bring migrants to their patch. There will be competition to attract working bodies on a very large scale.
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Old Jul 16th 2020, 5:07 am
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Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

Originally Posted by DigitalGhost View Post
It is. And that's main reason why successive Japanese governments have always considered mass immigration to be so dangerous. They're not racists as we would understand but everything runs in a delicate balance and there's a sense that an influx of foreigners simply wouldn't be able to understand that and would upset the pot.

Case in point, Japan now has sizeable Muslim communities in its larger cities and is security conscious as a nation but when you go through airport security in Japan, you don't even need to take your belt off. They've tweaked the metal detectors so they can detect weapons and explosives but inconvenience the passenger as little as possible. They even have special detectors in Tokyo Narita that can scan liquids so you can take an outside drink through with you. You then collect your belongings and an official sees you off with a polite bow. Compare that with your last experience in a UK airport or with the TSA and then try telling the Japanese that our way is the best way.
The whole place is just superb. One of my favourite places to have been. Travelling around a country that had no international visitors allowed for so long showed. We met a lad who was there working after studying and explained they have a word for people like him - roughly translated to 'outsider'. He said you'd never ever be fully accepted even if there 20 years living and working and with a Japanese wife / husband. Flip side is the respect, I'd love to live there because people think of others as well as themselves in everything it seems. They don't want to negatively impact anyone else going about their business. It's the dream.

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter View Post
Well apparently many, many countries are going to be in the upside down age triangle situation, with populations that are a lot smaller and older, so proportionately many fewer young workers worldwide overall to support the rest of the population. Hence the impending competition for bodies from abroad to rebuild populations, and not just as "migrant workers" I'm sure. This will be permanent population change. It's really interesting. The whole current idea of what immigration is and what it's for may change.

Re China, apparently their population will also be shrinking drastically, so they may not wish to export as many people as one might think.
Let Corona knock off some more so future generations don't have to work until they're dead?

****ing Boomers are having it so easy.
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Old Jul 16th 2020, 5:09 am
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Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

One reason Canada pushes immigration heavily it to grow the population, especially as boomers retire, the existing working population really isn't sufficient to sustain Canada, which is why there is a pretty aggressive effort to bring in larger number of qualified immigrants. And Canadian's for a variety of factors are not having kids or having less kids.

The high cost of living in Canada doesn't help encourage having babies either, even with the various tax credits parents give. We never had kids and never will since for us having a kid requires substantial $$ and a surrogate so obviously its not in the cards for us, but we likely still wouldn't have had a kid even if we could as the cost to raise 1 kid is simply too expensive,

Canada wont look anything like it does today demographic wise in 100 years, most of the modern day immigration is from Asia and India, so will be interesting to see how Canadian society evolves.

I wont be around in 2100 unless I live to like 121, but if I make to 80, might be able to see the start of what 2100 might look like.
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Old Jul 16th 2020, 5:15 am
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Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

Originally Posted by macliam View Post
Yeah, let's go back to the good old days when the peasants worked until they dropped!!
Health care? Let 'em die!
Pensions? Let 'em starve!
Oh and education? why bother? Get the kids straight into factories once they can walk!
Maybe we should look to removing the "weaker" specimens and only permitting approved people to breed too, eh?
Self funded retirement is also largely something upper middle class and above can do, lower middle class into low income groups typically have little to nothing left to save, let alone save for retirement.

I expect to work largely until I either die, or I physically or mentally can no longer work, no pensions really anymore in the private working sector, and retirement isn't a benefit offered to us lowly hourly workers typically, but the wage we earn is also not high enough to save to self fund retirement, so work til death or mentally/physically unable, then live in even worse poverty on the small amount the government provides.
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Old Jul 16th 2020, 6:14 am
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Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

Originally Posted by Jsmth321 View Post
Self funded retirement is also largely something upper middle class and above can do, lower middle class into low income groups typically have little to nothing left to save, let alone save for retirement.

I expect to work largely until I either die, or I physically or mentally can no longer work, no pensions really anymore in the private working sector, and retirement isn't a benefit offered to us lowly hourly workers typically, but the wage we earn is also not high enough to save to self fund retirement, so work til death or mentally/physically unable, then live in even worse poverty on the small amount the government provides.
Okay, firstly we're talking about the future in relation to the drop in developed country population numbers and how retirement ages will increase and how people will have to manage that change to suit.

A future solution could be like what we have in Australia: A government mandated superannuation scheme. And while it's not perfect, it means everyone will have a decent sized nest egg by the time they retire. It's limited use to those of us today who have spent most of our working lives without the scheme but those who spend their entire working life with the scheme can expect to be sitting with by current values a million dollars or more by the time they are in their early 60s.

This is what we have in Australia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supera...n_in_Australia

...And there's talk here of increasing the percentage contribution over the next couple of years meaning everyone's nest eggs will be even larger in the future.

I'm not sure what the current pension arrangements are in Canada, but it's likely that Canada could adopt a similar system to Australia's.
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