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Big population drop and change coming

Big population drop and change coming

Old Jul 15th 2020, 12:53 pm
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Default Big population drop and change coming

I was reading this from the BBC this morning. Apparently there has been a huge decline in the fertility rate, largely due to women no longer having to be baby machines what with access to birth control, education, and work, and rights and so forth. So the rapid decline of the birth rate means huge changes in store for the world. Overall population decline by the end of the century, and big changes in the composition of that population. It will be older, on average. Most striking, to me, are the huge projected population drops in some countries such as some European countries, China, Japan, Thailand and Vietnam. India will be the most populous country, although that will be due to China's population drop since the Indian population is also expected to fall drastically, and Nigeria, of all places, will be the second most populous country as part of huge growth in sub-saharan Africa. Because of the overall ageing of the population in so many countries and their corresponding drop in population, countries will be competing to attract immigrants and migration will be a necessity for the species.

The number and scale of changes all this will cause - well, big. And very interesting. Current countries and their political boundaries won't look the same - at all - and surely international collaboration and the increasing irrelevance of "nationhood" will grow. I think.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53409521

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Old Jul 15th 2020, 12:59 pm
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Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

So we need to invest in care homes and funeral homes, right?

Mental stats. Thanks for sharing
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Old Jul 15th 2020, 1:02 pm
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Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

Originally Posted by Scamp View Post
So we need to invest in care homes and funeral homes, right?

Mental stats. Thanks for sharing
Let's just hope we don't all end up fighting each other to get a population.
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Old Jul 15th 2020, 1:08 pm
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Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter View Post
It will be older, on average. Most striking, to me, are the huge projected population drops in some countries such as some European countries, China, Japan, Thailand and Vietnam.
Japan's population 'crisis' has always intrigued me. As anybody who has ever been to Tokyo will tell you, it is a massively over-populated country. A landmass not much bigger than the UK but with much more inhospitable territory and twice the population size.

Now I have no doubt their population is ageing rapidly and shrinking due to deaths. They have more people over the age of 100 than any other nation but younger Japanese are becoming more westernised in their diet and exercise habits and therefore the population is becoming fatter and the life expectancy is gradually dropping. Surely they could do with thinning out the numbers a little though. There is no need for a country of that geographical size to retain a 100 million plus population forever.
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Old Jul 15th 2020, 1:11 pm
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Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter View Post
I was reading this from the BBC this morning. Apparently there has been a huge decline in the fertility rate, largely due to women no longer having to be baby machines what with access to birth control, education, and work, and rights and so forth. So the rapid decline of the birth rate means huge changes in store for the world. Overall population decline by the end of the century, and big changes in the composition of that population. It will be older, on average. Most striking, to me, are the huge projected population drops in some countries such as some European countries, China, Japan, Thailand and Vietnam. India will be the most populous country, although that will be due to China's population drop since the Indian population is also expected to fall drastically, and Nigeria, of all places, will be the second most populous country as part of huge growth in sub-saharan Africa. Because of the overall ageing of the population in so many countries and their corresponding drop in population, countries will be competing to attract immigrants and migration will be a necessity for the species.

The number and scale of changes all this will cause - well, big. And very interesting. Current countries and their political boundaries won't look the same - at all - and surely international collaboration and the increasing irrelevance of "nationhood" will grow. I think.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53409521
Nice to have a bit of good news for a change.
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Old Jul 15th 2020, 1:15 pm
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Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter View Post
Let's just hope we don't all end up fighting each other to get a population.
Didn't that already happen in the 80's and 90's when you had Canada, Australia, NZ and back then even America competing for talent from the UK and elsewhere?

Obviously as populism has taken off and expats from the developed world gave way to higher numbers from India, China and Africa, countries have started to actively deter immigration rather than compete for it. It's really only Canada and New Zealand that are still focused on swelling their numbers with foreign-born talent these days.
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Old Jul 15th 2020, 1:15 pm
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Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

Originally Posted by DigitalGhost View Post
Japan's population 'crisis' has always intrigued me. As anybody who has ever been to Tokyo will tell you, it is a massively over-populated country. A landmass not much bigger than the UK but with much more inhospitable territory and twice the population size.

Now I have no doubt their population is ageing rapidly and shrinking due to deaths. They have more people over the age of 100 than any other nation but younger Japanese are becoming more westernised in their diet and exercise habits and therefore the population is becoming fatter and the life expectancy is gradually dropping. Surely they could do with thinning out the numbers a little though. There is no need for a country of that geographical size to retain a 100 million plus population forever.
Well according to that Lancet report, they won't be. They will be dropping from 128 million to 53 million by the end of the century, unless they import some new people.
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Old Jul 15th 2020, 1:17 pm
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Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

Originally Posted by DigitalGhost View Post
Didn't that already happen in the 80's and 90's when you had Canada, Australia, NZ and back then even America competing for talent from the UK and elsewhere?

Obviously as populism has taken off and expats from the developed world gave way to higher numbers from India, China and Africa, countries have started to actively deter immigration rather than compete for it. It's really only Canada and New Zealand that are still focused on swelling their numbers with foreign-born talent these days.
When I said fighting, I meant real fighting. As in wars. Countries will need younger people to sustain their economies and their old populations. The point of the Lancet article is that migration will become a necessity. Not now. Later.
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Old Jul 15th 2020, 1:18 pm
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Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

Originally Posted by jimenato View Post
Nice to have a bit of good news for a change.

It's very interesting. I mean, Nigeria? Who knew. Well I didn't anyway. There's going to have to be a complete rethink about borders and the distribution of resources or things are going to get pretty nasty.
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Old Jul 15th 2020, 1:26 pm
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Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter View Post
Well according to that Lancet report, they won't be. They will be dropping from 128 million to 53 million by the end of the century, unless they import some new people.
They are importing people. They have a points based immigration system although very, very few qualify for it. They also take in a lot of international students and temporary foreign workers although because of the language, working conditions and cultural differences, they often struggle to secure the kind of human capital that Canada, Australia, the UK etc attract and are more dependent upon people from Russia, China, Africa, SE Asia, Iran and Bangladesh.

They are definitely there though. The days of walking around Japanese cities and only seeing homogeneous Japanese faces interspersed with the occasional Caucasian are long gone.
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Old Jul 15th 2020, 1:29 pm
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Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

Originally Posted by DigitalGhost View Post
They are importing people. They have a points based immigration system although very, very few qualify for it. They also take in a lot of international students and temporary foreign workers although because of the language, working conditions and cultural differences, they often struggle to secure the kind of human capital that Canada, Australia, the UK etc attract and are more dependent upon people from Russia, China, Africa, SE Asia, Iran and Bangladesh.

They are definitely there though. The days of walking around Japanese cities and only seeing homogeneous Japanese faces interspersed with the occasional Caucasian are long gone.
Interesting. They are looking ahead then. Because they are going to need more.

Homogeneity is already something that only exists in the fevered minds of the few who classify people only by externally visual characteristics. Apparently that will be becoming more and more impossible to uphold.
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Old Jul 15th 2020, 1:30 pm
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Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter View Post
When I said fighting, I meant real fighting. As in wars. Countries will need younger people to sustain their economies and their old populations. The point of the Lancet article is that migration will become a necessity. Not now. Later.
And that's possibly why Canada and New Zealand have the right idea now. You set the bar high but you bring a steady stream of people in, offer them easy paths to citizenship and encourage them to procreate meaning that you don't have to battle for potentially lesser migrants later on.

I don't know about you but I wouldn't want to live in a country full of Nigerians, that's for damn sure.
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Old Jul 15th 2020, 1:34 pm
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Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter View Post
Interesting. They are looking ahead then. Because they are going to need more.

Homogeneity is already something that only exists in the fevered minds of the few who classify people only by externally visual characteristics. Apparently that will be becoming more and more impossible to uphold.
They have been doing for years. The problem is the points based system has a ridiculously high qualification criteria to the point where only world class Academics with a high level of Japanese need apply. I'm an IT professional in my mid-30's with passable Japanese and I wouldn't qualify for it. Not that it would be the best place for me to work anyway really since although I love the country and culture there, the hours are long and the wages are shite.

The problem they have is that they're not used to immigration as a country in the way that most westerners are and there's a collective fear that if the barriers to immigration are set too low then the Chinese will start to exploit the system.
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Old Jul 15th 2020, 1:35 pm
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Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

Originally Posted by Lion in Winter View Post
Let's just hope we don't all end up fighting each other to get a population.
Well, at least we're part of the exclusive trading and members club with the rest of our continent....

Originally Posted by DigitalGhost View Post
Japan's population 'crisis' has always intrigued me. As anybody who has ever been to Tokyo will tell you, it is a massively over-populated country.
Wicked city though isn't it. The chaos works in an orderly fashion which I loved.
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Old Jul 15th 2020, 1:43 pm
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Default Re: Big population drop and change coming

Originally Posted by Scamp View Post
Wicked city though isn't it. The chaos works in an orderly fashion which I loved.
It is. And that's main reason why successive Japanese governments have always considered mass immigration to be so dangerous. They're not racists as we would understand but everything runs in a delicate balance and there's a sense that an influx of foreigners simply wouldn't be able to understand that and would upset the pot.

Case in point, Japan now has sizeable Muslim communities in its larger cities and is security conscious as a nation but when you go through airport security in Japan, you don't even need to take your belt off. They've tweaked the metal detectors so they can detect weapons and explosives but inconvenience the passenger as little as possible. They even have special detectors in Tokyo Narita that can scan liquids so you can take an outside drink through with you. You then collect your belongings and an official sees you off with a polite bow. Compare that with your last experience in a UK airport or with the TSA and then try telling the Japanese that our way is the best way.
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