jackytoo

According to S&P Spanish houses will keep falling to around 2015..at least.

http://www.diariosur.es/rc/20131104/...311041857.html

sam54140

http://www.macromatters.es/wp-conten...matters-es.jpg

lordhowe

my advise is simple, if you are looking for a capital gain on property in Spain then don't buy, if you are happy with the price and can afford it and can buy it outright then do so, do not bank on a rental income as you will not need it because you own it and its yours to use as and when.
regarding your taxes take advise and pay your non residence tax every year, if the property costs 1500/2k a year to service and you use it like us for at least 6 holidays a year then its cheap.
Regarding purchase pay another 300 Euros and get another legal person to overlook your legal representatives and all documents sent ( I call it insurance) and yes I brought last year in Quesada 2 bed frontline golf and owes me 70k all in.

agoreira

http://elpais.com/elpais/2013/11/04/...52_654857.html

jackytoo

I know a couple who rented in Spain from 1995. A decent 2/2 apartment. The selling price was app. £45,000. The rent was €400pm which gradually rose to €600 in the 8 years they lived there. In that time the price of those apartments rose to €175,000. Even if they have dropped to €100,000 they would have been better off buying than renting....would this happen again, who knows. I doubt it but we don't have a crystal ball.

What I would do is buy to let in the UK. Renting out is no problem and in most areas property is increasing. A modest property can earn you app. £600 to 800pm and you could use this to rent in Spain. Suss out the market and really decide where you want to live. Buy now in Spain and with the10%+ on costs you would be in negative equity, perhaps for years.

sam54140

good advising people here. very good forum.
yes it's all about timing, market conditions, economy.
there are always exceptions in the real estate (location locatio, hot spots, dead spots, foreclosure deals etc)
it's a cycle too. right now, the cycle has not bottomed..yet. and there won't be a surge like 2000 to 2007 any time soon either.
Way too many supply (up to 600,000 houses/apartments).

sam54140

Deflation is showing its head, especially for the troubled countries and in deflation EVERYTHING falls (prices, salaries etc) http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-1...e-truth-about-
"The ECB is therefore faced with a new heterogeneity in the euro zone. The troubled countries are being pushed into deflation due to the very large differential between real interest rates and growth rates which results from the rapid decline of inflation; this is not the case for the other countries. If the ECB does not react, the troubled countries will therefore find themselves in an even worse situation of confirmed deflation. What can it do? The solution that would be most effective, but is probably unacceptable for the ECB, would be to act like the Bank of Japan: massive purchases of government bonds of the troubled countries (Chart 10A) leading to a rise in inflation expectations and actual inflation (Charts 10B and C) and a fall in real long-term interest rates (Chart 10C). The probability of the ECB conducting this policy is very low; part of the euro zone is therefore likely to become mired in deflation just when the consensus thinks that it is exiting the crisis."

johnnyone

Well put, although I do think location is extremely important as I am sure there are going to be plenty of "ghost" urbanisations around with little or no value.

HBG

It's hard for British people to get away from the long-held belief in the safety of bricks and mortar. It may have some value left in the UK, but it's totally false in Spain, especially over the past six years where the value of your Spanish house has halved.

Examples from the housing bubbles of the nineties are no longer relevant, those times will never return.

If you bought a house in Spain for 200K six years ago, it will now be worth 100K and its value will continue to fall. On that basis you could have rented a house for the 'lost' sum, much more luxurious than the one you bought, and still have a similar amount of money in your bank account.

I make that a possible rental of 1.600 a month, you could get a mansion for that in most places in Spain.

I've been trying to explain that to the many prospective buyers here in Spain when they've asked me and I've wasted my time. Only yesterday I watched an English couple come out of a Spanish bank to be shown one of their repossessions nearby.

The urbanisation is not even half-built, although the ones that are completed are well built, about ten percent are holiday homes, with less than five percent of permanent residents.

I felt like shouting out to them, 'Drive round here at night and count the houses with lights on.' It all looks so different during the day when the sun is shining and you're in holiday mode.

cricketman

Absolutely

jackytoo

Another thing to remember is that the property market in Andalucia was stalling well before the bank crisis. This was due to overbuilding and overpricing. From 2004 it was apparent that sales were slowing on the Costas.. Some large Estate Agents went to the wall.

One man we know, already owns a villa in Mijas, bought an apartment for investment. This was around 2008 when some prices were falling. He bought for 140,000 a reduction of 50,000. Bar room talk told him he had a bargain The asking price for these apartments is now around 100,000 and they aren't selling. Also he has been unable to rent it as many more are trying to do the same.

steviedeluxe

Very hard to believe predictions from the usual doomsters. They've got nearly all of their predictions wrong eg "Spain to leave the Euro", "Santander to collapse", "March - get your money out of Spain (the stock exchange is actually UP 20% this year)" etc etc.
In fact the price of used house sales actually rose a little in October by 0.7%
http://www.idealista.com/news/archiv...-tu-zona-tabla
Of course we know that could be just a blip. But anyone who gives firm predictions for the next few years? I'd no more believe them than I'd believe those who were predicting UK evacuation of British citizens from Spain.

jackytoo

No surprise there then you wouldn't believe what is in front of your eyes. There is a general consensus on this thread amongst both positives and doomsters.

JB80

I wouldn't have an issue buying now but it doesn't mean we will. If I could say with any certainty that we will still be here in 10 or 15 years then it wouldn't be a question, we'd buy.

Not having the entire amount of savings for cash upfront is something that needs to be considered too. The banks we have spoken with will only lend if you buy one of their properties no matter how much deposit or small the mortgage would be and frankly their properties are rubbish, unless they are holding the good ones back.
It's so hard to spend money here sometimes, they don't want it.

jimenato

Very true. We could all see this coming way before the crisis which only hastened and exacerbated the inevitable.

In answer to the question - no - I wouldn't buy now. The reason I wouldn't buy now is that I don't think the housing price slump is over (certainly around here) and I don't like other things that are happening in Spain either.

But then it's a matter of personal choice as well. I wouldn't have bought at any time, I like to remain mobile. I would see a house in Spain as a millstone rather than an asset. The buying/selling costs also put me off.