bigglesworth

Ah - if only I knew? If you have a lot of dosh you use professional advisors. For the rest of us, unfortunately this is a decision we all have to make individually.
You can take a little bit of the uncertainty out of it by monitoring it, which I am sure all do. But memory plays strange tricks.
It is far better to keep a record, in pictorial form, (by which I mean not just rows of figures).
You can buy these charts from currency trading brokers, and I imagine HiFX and the like might provide them if you paid. If however you want to, this is how to do it yourself. (And it whiles away those long winter nights!)
Go to the local stationers and get a sheet of students graph paper.
Number the vertical axis from say .80 all the way to 1.30.
Mark the horizontal axis for either days or weeks.
Every day (or week) note the highest price (1.0660), the lowest price (1.0560) and the closing value (1.0630). Mark a vertical line from 1.0660 to 1.0560.
This gives a visual record of the trading range. When the Euro moves to where it is at the cheaper end of that range, you might want to transfer more than usual.
When it is at the expensive part , do a little less.
Here is one of the important bits.
IF IT BREAKS OUT OF THE RANGE, WATCH AND WAIT.
There is not telling how far it can go (This is the situation we are in at the moment).
Now what about the closing prices? Ask one of the currency trading forums what look like the popular averages. Perhaps 10 and 42 day.
Draw EACH of them as a point on the same graph. (In different colours). And join them up.
Then you have a visual representation of the short term trend and the longer term.
Normally they will run in parallel. What you watch for is when they cross. This tells you that a short term trend has overtaken a longer term one, and a real change in sentiment may be about to occur.
Hope this helps. But please remember, these are just a guide. They are NOT foolproof, and not 100 percent reliable by any means. But they can help.
With any luck more knowledgeable people than I can add a bit more.

Splatt

Some good pointers Biggles, but graph paper is so last century!

Here are some of the sites I use to track forex:
http://forex.tradingcharts.com/quote...ish_pound.html
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/f...elve_month.stm
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?d=t&s=GBPEUR=X

You can get into it to an incredible degree. You can customise graphs to show candlestick charts, moving averages, compare against other currencies, trend lines etc etc. Don't forget there are people who make their living trading currency so don't expect to find a magic formula that tells you how it's going to move.

In my view the pound has been oversold and any further economic weakness from uk data is already priced in. We are also due to start seeing a glut of bad data from the Eurozone so that should work in the pounds' favour.

Ste.

bigglesworth

Oh I do agree, Splatt, but some of us ARE last century! And I hate candlesticks, stochastics etc. And need to keep my laptop for simple tasks as I can engineer the blue screen of death just by looking at the damn thing! Simple is as simple does!
Yes I too think the pound is well overdone, (can always go further we all know that) but in the mid to long term will do ok. And there is a host of bad info to come out of the Eurozone.
As to the Euro itself, well unless the ECB and the Commission get a move on, it really could disintegrate. I cannot see any advanced economy allowing 30 percent unemployment, and unless they relax very substantially that is what is going to occur in ClubMed.

Casa Santo Estevo

After the resent storms here in Galicia you will need all of them as a back up. (we was without paower for nearly 24 hours).
http://www.lavozdegalicia.es/galicia...03_7484348.htm
and they say more is on the way!

Sorry about the highjack

bigglesworth

Rocky Balboa

Graph paper???

http://futuresource.quote.com/charts...ium&b=LINE&st=

bigglesworth

Yes, I am a dinosaur.
And I still use pen and paper, think CD players are modern and use a stove rather than a microwave.
It is not that I am a technophobe, actually the opposite. It is technology that should be frightened of me, given how quickly I can make it malfunction.

Rocky Balboa

Well if you can navigate a forum like this you aren't doing too badly so don't put yourself down.