What does the post COVID19 future hold for us in Spain ?
#46
Re: What does the post COVID19 future hold for us in Spain ?
Just to put it in perspective, Spain has so far had around 10,000 covid-related deaths during the first quarter of the year.
In 2018 Spain had 475,000 deaths from the usual causes - so one would expect "normal" deaths for the first quarter to be around 120,000.
This gives Covid producing an extra 8% deaths ytd, some of whom will be those who already may have passed in the quarter anyway due to poor health.
This does not mean that the direction of Covid deaths will not increase significantly (or indeed reduce significantly) - just some current numbers to put against the position that house prices might go down due to many being for sale from those who have passed.
In 2018 Spain had 475,000 deaths from the usual causes - so one would expect "normal" deaths for the first quarter to be around 120,000.
This gives Covid producing an extra 8% deaths ytd, some of whom will be those who already may have passed in the quarter anyway due to poor health.
This does not mean that the direction of Covid deaths will not increase significantly (or indeed reduce significantly) - just some current numbers to put against the position that house prices might go down due to many being for sale from those who have passed.
#47
BE Enthusiast
Joined: May 2013
Posts: 613
Re: What does the post COVID19 future hold for us in Spain ?
Just to put it in perspective, Spain has so far had around 10,000 covid-related deaths during the first quarter of the year.
In 2018 Spain had 475,000 deaths from the usual causes - so one would expect "normal" deaths for the first quarter to be around 120,000.
This gives Covid producing an extra 8% deaths ytd, some of whom will be those who already may have passed in the quarter anyway due to poor health.
This does not mean that the direction of Covid deaths will not increase significantly (or indeed reduce significantly) - just some current numbers to put against the position that house prices might go down due to many being for sale from those who have passed.
In 2018 Spain had 475,000 deaths from the usual causes - so one would expect "normal" deaths for the first quarter to be around 120,000.
This gives Covid producing an extra 8% deaths ytd, some of whom will be those who already may have passed in the quarter anyway due to poor health.
This does not mean that the direction of Covid deaths will not increase significantly (or indeed reduce significantly) - just some current numbers to put against the position that house prices might go down due to many being for sale from those who have passed.
#48
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 5,622
Re: What does the post COVID19 future hold for us in Spain ?
What you quote makes a lot of sense. However I think once this is sorted out or at least under control there will be other factors that affect how people view living abroad. Will they still have their job? Worry re similar happening again and healthcare or issues of being far away from families and unable to travel. You only have to look at how many demanded rescuing by UK government from far flung exotic places, no doubt not all would be tourists. This will have many affects on movement both permanent and temporary for some period of time . House prices everywhere stand to be a factor everywhere not just Spain.
#49
Just Joined
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Joined: Jul 2016
Posts: 20
Re: What does the post COVID19 future hold for us in Spain ?
I keep an eye on the UK forums re: overseas travel. Most says "No" for the foreseeable future, naming Rhyl and Skegness as the desirable points if any travel past COVID19.
Also, it is worth remembering that the first COVID19 in Spain came from the small Island of La Gomera. Tenerife followed next soon, so the rest of Spain.
To add the current disturbing figures of deaths and the new cases from Spain: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Also, it is worth remembering that the first COVID19 in Spain came from the small Island of La Gomera. Tenerife followed next soon, so the rest of Spain.
To add the current disturbing figures of deaths and the new cases from Spain: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
#50
Re: What does the post COVID19 future hold for us in Spain ?
I don't see travel getting going again until you can be instantly tested at the airport of departure and arrival, traveling in an airplane with one contagious person will start the cycle all over again. The EU has shown that freedom of movement isn't that free if one state feels threatened by the other and the UK will be out at the end of the year with knock-on effects for Brit's. Total mess for people in the process of selling their house in the UK because they don't know where they will be once the sale goes through - no travel allowed, all the hotels in Spain (and UK!) closed again, etc. UK house prices, may go up in some areas barely affected by coronavirus and down in those heavily hit, people will be still living under the threat of a repeat cycle. Interestingly, Sterling has recovered from its recent lows, if the UK recovers first then it may have some business advantages and we have a strong govn with a decent majority for the next four years.
BTW I recommend taking 2000mg of Vitamin C four to five times a day to fight off the virus.
BTW I recommend taking 2000mg of Vitamin C four to five times a day to fight off the virus.
PS 2000mg of Vit C will likely give you the Jaipuri Jitters so stock up on toilet role.
#51
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Joined: Oct 2019
Location: Aussie nomad with no fixed abode
Posts: 236
Re: What does the post COVID19 future hold for us in Spain ?
#52
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Joined: Jul 2016
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Re: What does the post COVID19 future hold for us in Spain ?
Had a look at the Idealista Spanish property global site.
It shows the drop of the prooerty prices in Fuerteventure for some properties as far as -36%.
Spoke to the local agent. She said the trend started right after the Brixit and the properties prices dropped around -10% even then.
It shows the drop of the prooerty prices in Fuerteventure for some properties as far as -36%.
Spoke to the local agent. She said the trend started right after the Brixit and the properties prices dropped around -10% even then.
#53
Re: What does the post COVID19 future hold for us in Spain ?
I have a friend who is CEO for a large 4* hotel near Malaga. Always full in the summer months and open all year round. He tells me they are planning for not being open this year at all.
#54
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Joined: Jul 2016
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Re: What does the post COVID19 future hold for us in Spain ?
That is exactly what I was told by the lesser yet still competent level people from the mainland.
A friend of my wife sold the flat in the mainland Spain for 180K last year. Now that property is being marketed by the new owner for ...120K, with no success.
Fuerteventura has been offering up to -36% on some properties while La Palma (Island) has so far has been offering "only" up to -15%.
A friend of my wife sold the flat in the mainland Spain for 180K last year. Now that property is being marketed by the new owner for ...120K, with no success.
Fuerteventura has been offering up to -36% on some properties while La Palma (Island) has so far has been offering "only" up to -15%.
#55
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Joined: Oct 2019
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Posts: 236
Re: What does the post COVID19 future hold for us in Spain ?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/guymart.../#5dc6476b3a41
"In a television interview on April 17, Spanish Labor Minister Yolanda Díaz described the the bleak travel landscape faced by the already-beleaguered Spanish economy by giving voice to what many sensed but had not quite wrapped their arms around, namely, that Spain's tourism sector, which has contributed in excess of $200 billion annually since 2018 to the GDP, will effectively be shuttered until the end of 2020. Specifically, she said in the interview that the earliest that a revival of the badly-hit tourism and leisure sectors could be contemplated would be by the end of the year."
#56
Re: What does the post COVID19 future hold for us in Spain ?
IMHO.i think there will be a lot of pain coming for the ordinary citizen of Spain ,This virus is an absolute disaster for us all and will be played out in the future.To be fortunate not to have a death in the family will be a blessing but to face that and a very uncertain future will take great strength and heart.And i hope when history is told we have come through all this pretty well and most of us will solider on.Good health to all
#57
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Joined: Oct 2019
Location: Aussie nomad with no fixed abode
Posts: 236
Re: What does the post COVID19 future hold for us in Spain ?
IMHO.i think there will be a lot of pain coming for the ordinary citizen of Spain ,This virus is an absolute disaster for us all and will be played out in the future.To be fortunate not to have a death in the family will be a blessing but to face that and a very uncertain future will take great strength and heart.And i hope when history is told we have come through all this pretty well and most of us will solider on.Good health to all
And on Monday, the Bank of Spain asked for a gradual, mid-term adjustment plan to be introduced once the worst of the pandemic has passed. This plan, which should have broad political backing to convince the markets, would probably involve spending cuts and tax hikes."
from:
https://english.elpais.com/spanish_n...ger-slump.html
#58
Account Closed
Joined: May 2020
Posts: 0
Re: What does the post COVID19 future hold for us in Spain ?
Hi,
Spain has a record as long as its arm for short-term boom-bust bubbles, grab-it-and-run wealth extraction, a class system based on how much money you have (regardless of how you obtained it), exploitation of the so-called working and middle classes, taking but not giving, a punitive system that financially punishes the poor and rewards the wealthier, a spend it today and act like there's no such thing as tomorrow beach bum attitude, shameless graft and scamming is seen as being hyper-intelligent, an everything is black or white but there is no rainbow of colours inbetween mentality, and so on.
This country was ruined financially years ago, since then it's been an ever decreasing circle of wishful more for less. If you actually integrate into Spanish society, you see this country has a grim future - who can you steal from/exploit/crush when you ransacked the till yesterday? Not enough money goes in to sustain the dynamic here as noone wants to pay taxes and salaries are maybe 1/4 to 1/2 what they need to be compared to cost of living, price of goods, price of real estate.
It was telling that after Brexit, a good few Brits in Tarragona put their houses/fincas up for sale and went back to the UK.
The Socialist government and Podemos, etc. may have good plans, but in a country ruled from behind the scenes by old-fashioned kleptos and narcos, I wouldn't expect much to change.
My convoluted point is that unless there's a major paradigm shift and radical change of hearts and minds here, post-Coronavirus will be more of the same shambolic, blinkered Spanish approach to things but far worse with the incipient next hard recession that will be a bit of a whirlpool. Prices up, wages down. Innovative taxation schemes dreamt up shamelessly (e.g. a tax for smiling too often wouldn't surprise me by now). Expect new ways to get hands on what's yours 'legally'.
I wish I could have a more positive outlook.
Spain has a record as long as its arm for short-term boom-bust bubbles, grab-it-and-run wealth extraction, a class system based on how much money you have (regardless of how you obtained it), exploitation of the so-called working and middle classes, taking but not giving, a punitive system that financially punishes the poor and rewards the wealthier, a spend it today and act like there's no such thing as tomorrow beach bum attitude, shameless graft and scamming is seen as being hyper-intelligent, an everything is black or white but there is no rainbow of colours inbetween mentality, and so on.
This country was ruined financially years ago, since then it's been an ever decreasing circle of wishful more for less. If you actually integrate into Spanish society, you see this country has a grim future - who can you steal from/exploit/crush when you ransacked the till yesterday? Not enough money goes in to sustain the dynamic here as noone wants to pay taxes and salaries are maybe 1/4 to 1/2 what they need to be compared to cost of living, price of goods, price of real estate.
It was telling that after Brexit, a good few Brits in Tarragona put their houses/fincas up for sale and went back to the UK.
The Socialist government and Podemos, etc. may have good plans, but in a country ruled from behind the scenes by old-fashioned kleptos and narcos, I wouldn't expect much to change.
My convoluted point is that unless there's a major paradigm shift and radical change of hearts and minds here, post-Coronavirus will be more of the same shambolic, blinkered Spanish approach to things but far worse with the incipient next hard recession that will be a bit of a whirlpool. Prices up, wages down. Innovative taxation schemes dreamt up shamelessly (e.g. a tax for smiling too often wouldn't surprise me by now). Expect new ways to get hands on what's yours 'legally'.
I wish I could have a more positive outlook.
#59
Forum Regular
Joined: Oct 2019
Location: Aussie nomad with no fixed abode
Posts: 236
Re: What does the post COVID19 future hold for us in Spain ?
Hi,
Spain has a record as long as its arm for short-term boom-bust bubbles, grab-it-and-run wealth extraction, a class system based on how much money you have (regardless of how you obtained it), exploitation of the so-called working and middle classes, taking but not giving, a punitive system that financially punishes the poor and rewards the wealthier, a spend it today and act like there's no such thing as tomorrow beach bum attitude, shameless graft and scamming is seen as being hyper-intelligent, an everything is black or white but there is no rainbow of colours inbetween mentality, and so on.
This country was ruined financially years ago, since then it's been an ever decreasing circle of wishful more for less. If you actually integrate into Spanish society, you see this country has a grim future - who can you steal from/exploit/crush when you ransacked the till yesterday? Not enough money goes in to sustain the dynamic here as noone wants to pay taxes and salaries are maybe 1/4 to 1/2 what they need to be compared to cost of living, price of goods, price of real estate.
It was telling that after Brexit, a good few Brits in Tarragona put their houses/fincas up for sale and went back to the UK.
The Socialist government and Podemos, etc. may have good plans, but in a country ruled from behind the scenes by old-fashioned kleptos and narcos, I wouldn't expect much to change.
My convoluted point is that unless there's a major paradigm shift and radical change of hearts and minds here, post-Coronavirus will be more of the same shambolic, blinkered Spanish approach to things but far worse with the incipient next hard recession that will be a bit of a whirlpool. Prices up, wages down. Innovative taxation schemes dreamt up shamelessly (e.g. a tax for smiling too often wouldn't surprise me by now). Expect new ways to get hands on what's yours 'legally'.
I wish I could have a more positive outlook.
Spain has a record as long as its arm for short-term boom-bust bubbles, grab-it-and-run wealth extraction, a class system based on how much money you have (regardless of how you obtained it), exploitation of the so-called working and middle classes, taking but not giving, a punitive system that financially punishes the poor and rewards the wealthier, a spend it today and act like there's no such thing as tomorrow beach bum attitude, shameless graft and scamming is seen as being hyper-intelligent, an everything is black or white but there is no rainbow of colours inbetween mentality, and so on.
This country was ruined financially years ago, since then it's been an ever decreasing circle of wishful more for less. If you actually integrate into Spanish society, you see this country has a grim future - who can you steal from/exploit/crush when you ransacked the till yesterday? Not enough money goes in to sustain the dynamic here as noone wants to pay taxes and salaries are maybe 1/4 to 1/2 what they need to be compared to cost of living, price of goods, price of real estate.
It was telling that after Brexit, a good few Brits in Tarragona put their houses/fincas up for sale and went back to the UK.
The Socialist government and Podemos, etc. may have good plans, but in a country ruled from behind the scenes by old-fashioned kleptos and narcos, I wouldn't expect much to change.
My convoluted point is that unless there's a major paradigm shift and radical change of hearts and minds here, post-Coronavirus will be more of the same shambolic, blinkered Spanish approach to things but far worse with the incipient next hard recession that will be a bit of a whirlpool. Prices up, wages down. Innovative taxation schemes dreamt up shamelessly (e.g. a tax for smiling too often wouldn't surprise me by now). Expect new ways to get hands on what's yours 'legally'.
I wish I could have a more positive outlook.
Once the health crisis ends in a year or two we are likely to see a new debt crisis with Greece (forecast to have a debt to GDP ratio of 200+%) and Italy (forecast to have a debt to GDP ratio of 150+%). Spain is in a slightly better position but it's going to be extremely hard to pay off debt with an ageing population, high unemployment and already low wages and high taxes.