Cape Blue

Just to put it in perspective, Spain has so far had around 10,000 covid-related deaths during the first quarter of the year.

In 2018 Spain had 475,000 deaths from the usual causes - so one would expect "normal" deaths for the first quarter to be around 120,000.

This gives Covid producing an extra 8% deaths ytd, some of whom will be those who already may have passed in the quarter anyway due to poor health.

This does not mean that the direction of Covid deaths will not increase significantly (or indeed reduce significantly) - just some current numbers to put against the position that house prices might go down due to many being for sale from those who have passed.

chopera

Yes I don't think the increase in number of deaths will have a huge effect on house prices. It's more the reduced amount of money in the economy.that'll have an impact, as well as people's confidence being knocked. Even those who still do have jobs at the end of this might be more reluctant to take out large mortgages if they think their businesses or employers might still be at risk. On the other hand it might still turn out that this is overblown and all that money governments have been handing out wasn't necessary and people will go straight back to work in a month or so. However I think that scenario is unlikely, especially in Spain. We might have a better idea when the first antibody test results start coming in.

bobd22

What you quote makes a lot of sense. However I think once this is sorted out or at least under control there will be other factors that affect how people view living abroad. Will they still have their job? Worry re similar happening again and healthcare or issues of being far away from families and unable to travel. You only have to look at how many demanded rescuing by UK government from far flung exotic places, no doubt not all would be tourists. This will have many affects on movement both permanent and temporary for some period of time . House prices everywhere stand to be a factor everywhere not just Spain.

ea8

I keep an eye on the UK forums re: overseas travel. Most says "No" for the foreseeable future, naming Rhyl and Skegness as the desirable points if any travel past COVID19.

Also, it is worth remembering that the first COVID19 in Spain came from the small Island of La Gomera. Tenerife followed next soon, so the rest of Spain.

To add the current disturbing figures of deaths and the new cases from Spain: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

bob_bob

I take it you have no idea that vitamin C is a water soluble vitamin and the body only stores a certain amount and the rest is flushed out in your urine? You pissing your money away paying for the supplement and if you have a balanced diet you don't need to take extra Vit C.

PS 2000mg of Vit C will likely give you the Jaipuri Jitters so stock up on toilet role.

m2m2012

Good article here:

https://english.elpais.com/spanish_n...-in-spain.html

ea8

Had a look at the Idealista Spanish property global site.

It shows the drop of the prooerty prices in Fuerteventure for some properties as far as -36%.

Spoke to the local agent. She said the trend started right after the Brixit and the properties prices dropped around -10% even then.

Patrick2976

I have a friend who is CEO for a large 4* hotel near Malaga. Always full in the summer months and open all year round. He tells me they are planning for not being open this year at all.

ea8

That is exactly what I was told by the lesser yet still competent level people from the mainland.

A friend of my wife sold the flat in the mainland Spain for 180K last year. Now that property is being marketed by the new owner for ...120K, with no success.

Fuerteventura has been offering up to -36% on some properties while La Palma (Island) has so far has been offering "only" up to -15%.

m2m2012

What a disaster.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/guymart.../#5dc6476b3a41

"In a television interview on April 17, Spanish Labor Minister Yolanda Díaz described the the bleak travel landscape faced by the already-beleaguered Spanish economy by giving voice to what many sensed but had not quite wrapped their arms around, namely, that Spain's tourism sector, which has contributed in excess of $200 billion annually since 2018 to the GDP, will effectively be shuttered until the end of 2020. Specifically, she said in the interview that the earliest that a revival of the badly-hit tourism and leisure sectors could be contemplated would be by the end of the year."

el collado kid

IMHO.i think there will be a lot of pain coming for the ordinary citizen of Spain ,This virus is an absolute disaster for us all and will be played out in the future.To be fortunate not to have a death in the family will be a blessing but to face that and a very uncertain future will take great strength and heart.And i hope when history is told we have come through all this pretty well and most of us will solider on.Good health to all

m2m2012

"First it was the Fiscal Authority, the agency that monitors the public accounts, that said it will take a decade of adjustments to make up for public-debt levels that could soar to 124% of GDP by 2021.

And on Monday, the Bank of Spain asked for a gradual, mid-term adjustment plan to be introduced once the worst of the pandemic has passed. This plan, which should have broad political backing to convince the markets, would probably involve spending cuts and tax hikes."

from:
https://english.elpais.com/spanish_n...ger-slump.html

scrubbedexpat137 

Hi,

Spain has a record as long as its arm for short-term boom-bust bubbles, grab-it-and-run wealth extraction, a class system based on how much money you have (regardless of how you obtained it), exploitation of the so-called working and middle classes, taking but not giving, a punitive system that financially punishes the poor and rewards the wealthier, a spend it today and act like there's no such thing as tomorrow beach bum attitude, shameless graft and scamming is seen as being hyper-intelligent, an everything is black or white but there is no rainbow of colours inbetween mentality, and so on.
This country was ruined financially years ago, since then it's been an ever decreasing circle of wishful more for less. If you actually integrate into Spanish society, you see this country has a grim future - who can you steal from/exploit/crush when you ransacked the till yesterday? Not enough money goes in to sustain the dynamic here as noone wants to pay taxes and salaries are maybe 1/4 to 1/2 what they need to be compared to cost of living, price of goods, price of real estate.
It was telling that after Brexit, a good few Brits in Tarragona put their houses/fincas up for sale and went back to the UK.
The Socialist government and Podemos, etc. may have good plans, but in a country ruled from behind the scenes by old-fashioned kleptos and narcos, I wouldn't expect much to change.
My convoluted point is that unless there's a major paradigm shift and radical change of hearts and minds here, post-Coronavirus will be more of the same shambolic, blinkered Spanish approach to things but far worse with the incipient next hard recession that will be a bit of a whirlpool. Prices up, wages down. Innovative taxation schemes dreamt up shamelessly (e.g. a tax for smiling too often wouldn't surprise me by now). Expect new ways to get hands on what's yours 'legally'.
I wish I could have a more positive outlook.

m2m2012

In Greece this mentality also exists. A HUGE problem, it's very hard to end corruption, scams and dishonesty in country when most people consider such behaviour "part of the game".

Once the health crisis ends in a year or two we are likely to see a new debt crisis with Greece (forecast to have a debt to GDP ratio of 200+%) and Italy (forecast to have a debt to GDP ratio of 150+%). Spain is in a slightly better position but it's going to be extremely hard to pay off debt with an ageing population, high unemployment and already low wages and high taxes.

Chatter Static

Why?