Retired in Euskadi

They are all questions to which nobody has any answer; they can lead to much speculation.

What about slightly different questions to your questions:

Should flights resume (as before)?
We all know that so many are not sustainable, yet we assume they will carry on regardless, and to hell with the environment.

Why shouldn't house prices go down?
House prices are out of reach for so many people in Europe, especially young people. Can there be a better method so that everybody benefits.

Surely, this is the moment to make us all stop and think about where we are in our societies and how we can improve them for everybody's sake. If nothing else, this minuscule, invisible thing we call a virus has brought the world to its knees for a little while.
As a Christian , I believe it's a 'message', calling us to think seriously. But that will not be terribly popular!

olivefarmer

Nice sentiments but the 1st worlds are based on capitalism. Big business ( which runs governments) will want everyone consuming and therefore spending as soon as possible.

so on your list of slightly different questions , you could add write off ALL debt and restructure society different
y. We could do away with foreign holidays, scrap all oil fuelled cars and give everyone an electric car.

mikelincs

The cat and dog have tested positive for A coronavirus, but there are many of these, and the ones they have tested for may well be a totally different virus, so please stop panicing. The common cold IS a coronavirus.

Retired in Euskadi

Yes, the 1st worlds are based on capitalism. It's a good system provided it works on fairness, but it tends to work on greed. Shareholders for example, whilst individually decent people, must ask themselves "what is my motive for buying shares?". Always, the company with shareholders sees its main aim in providing for them. So if it has to "restructure" its business, then 2000 jobs go on the nod of the head. Misery for them.
Being given electric cars may be fine, but it won't happen, and nor will it change people.
It's interesting to note with coronovirus:

• it started (one assumes) in China, a repressive society.
• it spread to Iran, also a repressive society amongst other things
• it has largely spread to "rich" nations. Africa, for now, has been spared somewhat.

Pause for thought?

olivefarmer

Capitalism works on greed not fairness. In the UK we were catapulted rightly or wrongly deep into the greed culture. Buying council houses with huge discounts and not building replacements or additional stock. I suspect a lot of retired British expats on this forum will have augmented their worst in Europe state pension with say a private pension which hinges on businesses being run efficiently.

you are spot on. It has spread to the richer nations. They are probably the ones that can participate in air travel or luxury cruise travel and spread the virus. Third world countries may not have the infrastructure to report or even detect the disease. It will be there though.

There is a good account of the Chinese closing their borders to people coming in. They are also stopping movement to Bejing. Good tactic to stop it resurfacing from more liberal countries keen to drop restrictions and get capitalism going again

EuroTrash

Pandemics may come
And pandemics may go,
Their progress we track on devices.
But what causes most anguish
(at least to the English)
Is: How will this impact house prices?

Barriej

Im not going to have a go, but please don't tar all English (Brits ) with the same brush.

I don't give a toss what happens to house prices. I don't own property in the Uk (do in Spain) and Im only interested in living in it. I don't care what its worth as I won't be selling it any time soon.

bobd22

Very true also people in the situation as post 15! One needs to be aware things will change post this crisis and no one is going to sign off a purchase believing the day after signing they will loose possibly a third of what they have paid. Everyone's situation and how they may or will be affected by this crisis differs. Obviously main thing is safety at the moment but many will be unable to ignore the impact this may have on them further down the line, hence i would imagine the purpose of original post.

britishbull

I don't see travel getting going again until you can be instantly tested at the airport of departure and arrival, traveling in an airplane with one contagious person will start the cycle all over again. The EU has shown that freedom of movement isn't that free if one state feels threatened by the other and the UK will be out at the end of the year with knock-on effects for Brit's. Total mess for people in the process of selling their house in the UK because they don't know where they will be once the sale goes through - no travel allowed, all the hotels in Spain (and UK!) closed again, etc. UK house prices, may go up in some areas barely affected by coronavirus and down in those heavily hit, people will be still living under the threat of a repeat cycle. Interestingly, Sterling has recovered from its recent lows, if the UK recovers first then it may have some business advantages and we have a strong govn with a decent majority for the next four years.

BTW I recommend taking 2000mg of Vitamin C four to five times a day to fight off the virus.

olivefarmer

I cannot see prices going up in selected areas. A recent article in the UK press suggested a minimum 10% drop in house prices. As a whole society will have less money, no doubt we will all have to pay more tax to pay for it all . True there will be a few that have made money on the crisis ( sellers of table tennis , exercise bikes, Geof Bezos,) but having been astute enough to make money they wouldn’t then waste it on overpriced housing stock.

There is no doubt that a balanced diet keeps your immune system in better shape. Not so easy to do that due to selfish idiots hoovering up veg and fruit. A friend works in a corner shop co op. Normal takings £22 to£24k running week on week at £35k . I suspect that figure would be even higher but after every delivery they are still selling out.

Lagoo

britishbull just to let you know that you can save your money! "Taking large doses of vitamin C tablets would be very unlikely to protect you from COVID-19—unless you were actually vitamin C deficient, which with a normal diet is quite rare." (From this Newsweek article New York hospitals are using vitamin c to treat some coronavirus patients).

Re house prices, it's an unpleasant thought but another reason for house price falls will be that there will be properties coming onto the market from grieving relatives and fewer people to buy them. Sorry to bring this up.

I wonder if all governments having to find a ton of money will mean they are able to stick together to tax the super-rich fairly. At the moment everyone is scared that taxing them too highly will lead them to move elsewhere and take all their money with them. But given that we have a worldwide situation perhaps even the most libertarian governments will see the need.

karlyboy

Indeed, hold back. I was talking to a Spanish broker, friend of mine, and he thinks prices will start dropping. I am waiting at least until the end of the year, and we will start to see 20, 30% drops maybe even more. However its going to get more brutal. The corona virus is basically going to bankrupt several EU countries, the US Funds hold most of the Spanish housing debt the banks sold on and my Spanish mates in the know tell me, if the US drop them, its going to be carnage. These debts were off the books since 2010 situation. Alasdair Macleod, London financial expert who follows the bullion market, just last week indicated we can expect a Eurozone and Euro crisis, and it could come as early as 1 month from now, but its coming.

People Are Right To Be Worried
Alasdair Macleod: “The answer is I think people are right to be worried. I don’t think anybody really realizes the imminence of the catastrophe which we are about to see. This crisis is not just a virus. Before that happened we were actually turning down into the contracting stage of the credit cycle. And we are seeing this. You will see that all of the payment failures — basically all of the banks will want to contract outstanding bank credit. There will be a bank crisis in the Eurozone. That will be a major, major event. And that will probably happen a month from now. There are lots of bad debts that cannot be carried by the system. So this is not going to go away whenever the virus goes away, whenever that is. So yes, I think people are right to be worried…

Given the spat this week over the Corona situation on video conference between Germany, Netherlands, Austria vs France, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece all is not well. Debt mutualisation isn't gong to happen. On top of this the EU now desperately needs a deal with the UK in this situation. So hold back because we will see multiple shock waves, and currency devaluations over the next 2 years and risks of hyper inflation as the USA heads towards 28 trillion deficit next year and the markets no longer believe in the US dollar. Already banks in the USA are refusing loans, and this will spread more. With this whole situation, jobs, income, and businesses, property will be off loaded, and people will get desperate. So hold back and wait.

Things will normalize but they won't quite be the same, people will behave differently, look at things different, not everyone but a lot of people will do things differently going forward. As for Spain, technically its already bankrupt, and this situation could well destroy its economy if it goes on too long. Italians are now turning on the EU, as are Greeks, and Portuguese. This will spread and as some analysts said this week, the breakup of the EU is already underway, it won't be the same and no one should be surprised that Germany has a a plan to bail. There are circles in Russia and China that are in the know and aware Germany has a plan to bail. It depends on a number of factors. So in all these situations, i would wait it out and buy a home end of year or into next year. Estate agents and sellers who need money or offload their debts, will get desperate! and few people will have real money due to the many situations, and credit will not be so freely given. Banks will also pressure those who own debts after the next 3 months pass as people struggle to keep up payments given the impact of what is happening now. The world is certainly going to change!

ea8

Very interesting, thank you for sharing.

britishbull

On Vitamin C, I am aware that the recommended dosage is 90mg and after 200mg a day very little ends up in the blood (it is actually quite good for UTI as its changes the PH in the bladder when passing through)... except when the body is under attack from disease, then it gobbles up what is in the blood and does take in the extra that you are ingesting... in theory anyway!

The dollar has had a long, long bull run compared to most currencies, way overdue a crash, BUT the USA is more or less self-contained if it needs to be, unlike the UK, so can survive... yep, lots of people are going to get fiscally kneecapped again!

UK property market is difficult to suss - it does have a 18-20 year boom to bust cycle - because demand is so high and interest rates are so low (at the moment). Might be a flood of properties from the elderly who have passed due to the virus and buy-to-let landlords might get hit if housing benefit is further capped (which it will be to take into account too many unemployed)... cash is probably going to be King for the next few years! The Spanish market is beyond me other than looking a bit expensive in some areas.

karlyboy

I just told a friend of mine who has 1m in dollars to move them out. I do not believe the dollar is safe, people are less believing this time in the cash cocaine this time around. Indexes are falling, and if you listen to Wealth managers who take a global view, the dollar could well fall through the floor and it risks hyper inflation. This seems to be a common view across the board. The UK economy will fight back and rise up, its in control of its own currency. Spare a thought for those pegged to the Euro, what's coming for them is going to be truly devastating. They have a budget hole to fix, they need at least 2 trillion to fund the bailout and are squabbling over 450m rescue fund, which key players refuse to turn into a debt mutualisation. All while Italy burns. My view is the US economy will try to inflate itself until the presidential election, and then we will see some serious fall outs over the next 2 years, and move into a depression beyond a recession. However this is my view, which are my own. I predicted this situation last year and moved everything from fiat currency into Gold and assets which hold value. People said I was mad, not they are calling how to do the same. It's all a bit too late now but there are still some options out there.