Spanish economy
 

As a thread has been closed in relation to this topic, and the topic is worthy of discussion, I'd like to start another.
A few differences here though as we're all aware of the difficulties facing Spain. The difficulties facing eachother and I hope, we can all respect the facts you might present.
On a sour note, I believe from the stats I've been reading that Spain will make a full recovery by 2020. Back to where it was pre recession. On a positive note, 6 years isn't a long time! (Unless you're 90 years old and full respect to you)
We are also fully aware of the poverty that exists and how desperate many people living in Spain have become. Some have hit the darkest depths of despair and ended their own lives!
I don't want to distract from that but want to highlight the fact that there are many positives appearing in the economic climate. The recession would seem to have sorted the wheat from the chaff.
The businesses left standing have made the necessary cuts/changes/effiecincy drives, in order for them to survive, and the country has now recorded 3 quarters of growth.
For those of us living here, my experience is seeing positive changes. I'm hearing from the agents, speaking with the business owners, and yes, still seen the beggar outside SuperSol but ultimately, the "vibe" I'm feeling is a good one.
My own business had it's 1st birtday last week! I kid you not, it was a tough year but I'm not even sure the business would have stood a chance in the UK! For me, Spain is a land of opportunity, a beautiful land and as I say, things seem to be looking up!
Why wouldn't you invest in such a wonderful country if you were prepared to invest at all?
Posted with best intentions!

Re: Spanish economy
 

I respect your good intentions and opinions and while I may not always agree with them, I hope this thread goes a bit better than the last.

Just curious to know on what evidence you base your estimate regarding another six years to get back to normality and what would you regard normality to be in respect of the unemployment rate for example, similar to that back in early 2007 for instance ?

Re: Spanish economy
 

Good intentions indeed.
I was discussing this issue over the weekend with a good friend of mine. He actually works for a London Bank. So I can't say it's my estimate but his or his banks estimate, hence my comment about it being simply my understanding.
Spain has never been one of Europes leaders in respect to employment but my reference to 6 years would take us back to before the crash. If my foggy memory serves me well, I'm talking about figures Oct 2007....which is a bloody long way from where we are now ;)

Re: Spanish economy
 

I believe the unemployment figures in early 2007 were in the region of 7%.
That means, all factors considered, an improvement of about 20% would be needed to get back to the 2007 figures by 2020, and you refer to that as a "sour note" ? :confused:

I would call it an economic miracle and far from being a sour note I think the Spanish would already be out dancing in the streets if they could believe that.
I've seen various figures bandied about from ten years to twenty years to sometime never.

The thing is that despite new employment being provided during the past two years the overall jobless figure has not improved. Bankruptcies have continued to far outnumber new start-ups and the number of permanent long term jobs even now is still continuing to decrease.

Whilst I do believe the situation will surely improve from now onwards, I doubt if it will be anything other than painfully slow, with Spanish workers continuing their trend to look abroad for work and the ever thriving black economy combined with Govt.regulations, also making any rapid improvement virtually impossible.

Re: Spanish economy
 

These type of threads always seem to have a kind of desperation to them. Someone's opened a blah blah business etc. tourism is up, people are spending more. Not sure what difference it makes to the average expat who is either retired or running a business patronised by other expats. Unless you are trying to sell your Spanish property surely the slump is good news, prices staying low, cutting each others throats for the cheapest menu del dia.

Re: Spanish economy
 

Don't see it that way myself J2.
Living in a Spanish area I'd rather see a Spain back on it's feet again and a smile back on all the faces.

They've even put signs up in some local Spanish bars to the effect, "Please don't talk about the Crisis in here"
Actually it's heated dispute after dispute, with tempers getting very frayed, as to which govt has been most responsible for the present pickle and unfortunately none of them showing the faintest optimistic inclination of looking through the rose tinted expat specs we often see on here.

Re: Spanish economy
 

However , this is a brand new thread to discuss the topic of the Spanish economy, so let's move forward with this rather than looking back to old failed threads.

I shouldn't need to write this but I will. All POVs are valid & that is also regardless of where the poster lives in the world.

For my own part, I am hoping it will be an interesting and enlightening thread to read. I am far away on the other side of the world, but the recovery, or not , of EU countries is in my sights also as we may well not stay at the bottom of the world forever.

Re: Spanish economy
 

Australia and NZ have spent too many decades hanging on to the shirt tails of Mother England and to a small extent Europe. It is only recently they have really started to realise how large the markets are for their goods on their own doorstep and just down the road. They are getting less and less introverted and looking out over the Pacific Rim and seeing the potentials for the future and the part they can play in that future.

But - Europe has a major part to play in the World and the long term stability of Europe as a whole and the individual countries such as Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece who have experienced difficulties play a major part in that. Europe is a large importer from the Pacific Rim - with a defunct Europe there will be no trade for the Far East and they will also suffer more than they are doing.

To my mind whilst people have the right to comment, the simple fact that expats in Spain have the interest in the local economy, the way things are improving, is surely a good thing. It makes my heart sink to continually find people have trawled the world's newspapers to find a single negative comment and want to blow up the efforts of others.
If this was a company it would be dead because of the negativity. You have to bite back on the negativity and think positively for now and the future or there will be none.

and having people who have half the forum on Ignore and refuse to respond to comment is an abuse of the privilege of using BE.

Re: Spanish economy
 

Yet you are living in an area that still has growing unemployment....last month another 10,500 people lost their jobs in Andalucia so getting vibes from Agents isn't an indicator. They have been claiming green shoots for 5 years. I am pleased your business is doing ok but it is "out of the box" and (I think) your wife is Spanish. Most expats businesses aren't around after 3 years or they have sold on to another sucker.

Re: Spanish economy
 

Is unemployment still growing in 2014 J2?
I´m not sure it is though will stand corrected.
Forecasts for 2014:
"Tourism has always been a strong industry for the region, and will continue to be so throughout 2014 and beyond. And with foreign investment in Spanish property topping €6 billion for the first time since 2004 – according to figures released this month by the Bank of Spain – the Costa del Sol’s property market is looking as rosy as ever." which kind of confirms what local agents are saying.

BBVA report 1st Q 2014: "[I]The Spanish economy is growing and, for the first time since the onset of the crisis, the risks are to the upside.
Exports will continue to lead growth supported by progress in developed economies and geographical diversification.
New credit is growing, particularly for companies, which will help to consolidate the recovery."

And from EURES: "According to a report published by Economic Analysts of Andalusia in October 2013, the regional GDP of Andalusia is estimated to grow by 1.1% in 2014, two tenths more than the expected increase in Spain. In 2014, all productive sectors, except construction, are expected to grow. The agricultural and industrial sectors are expected to increase activities, while the progress in services will be driven by increased tourism." ... which kind of falls in line with what business owners are starting to suggest.

Like I said, this is what I´m seeing/hearing/reading, so please rest assured there is no "desperation" in this thread.

Re: Spanish economy
 

As I said unemployment is growing in ANDALUCIA, another 10000+ joined the jobless last month pwhich is where you live and are talking about recovery.

We can all start the endless quoting again...some link to obscure websites of their mates who network to talk up Spain, quite a few examples on the closed one. A couple of "star":D positive posters have now gone over to the happy clapping forum and become cheerleaders there, one making hundreds of posts per month:lol: maybe this forum wants to mirror it and have a sort of British expats pat each other on the back;)

Back to topic

An article with a very optimistic headline today in El Pais saying that Brussels has raised Spain's growth, reveals in the small print that they also predict public sector debt will rise to over100% this year and worse, 104% next year. They also state that the 1% growth rate this year will scarcely make any difference to unemployment.

Re: Spanish economy
 

It's all about balance. Some posts show a glimmer of good news and turn it into something more positive than is really the case.
Similarly bad news is turned into showing Spain is about to collapse when that is also far from the position.
Is that any different to what newspapers do to promote their views?

Providing the posts do not degenerate into a slanging match at least a balance of views gives the undecided to form an opinion not based on one sided posts.

Also this des not relate just to comments in respect of Spain, it is in many threads including the anti Uk bias shown by some posters.

Re: Spanish economy
 

I wasn´t aware that the BBVA report, and the EURES reports where what you´re calling "obscure websites"?
I was trying to find information to back up your comments ref unemployment 2014, and came across the others. Both poised at the top of Google!
It´s no wonder with paragraphs such as your first "discussion" is often so difficult whereby you simply insult someone by refering to them as the third person. :thumbdown:

Re: Spanish economy
 

johnny the main reason for my comment is that certain people think that their past years in Spain during the boom give them the right to slag off the country, the people and also the expats now living here. They also take great delight in telling the forum (and the world watching outside) that those who do feel positive about the future for this country, its future and the British Expats here, are Know Nothings and have no experience of Spain, the World and life in general.

In fact from what I have seen it is becoming harder and harder for them to find links to negative stories and are getting their fuel from the most outlandish of places.
But then as you say, there is possible and anti-UK element to certain others postings. Usually this is to bolster their reasons for leaving the country. Yes it's fine that the sales of £1million houses is increasing exponentially. But that isn't a true litmus test of the commercial state of the UK, which is itself fragile.

But the one thing I feel sorry about is the heavy personal abuse that has been levied at one of our compatriots. This started to reach outside the forum - a place none of us should go. I did not think that we had such bullies on this forum.

However, we have a new thread and need to forge ahead for the good of BE, BES and also for Spain. If the 1million expats (or whatever the figure is) feel positive about living here then that is good for the country. Many of us are nett spenders, taking little or nothing from Spain except the warmth and friendliness of the people as well as the warmth of their climate.

rgds

Re: Spanish economy
 

When a poster declares something on the Spanish economy, I generally try to find sources backing it up. Be it good news or bad. More often than not, I´m finding reasons to be positive.
I don´t see any benefit in not writing the truth as I see it.