Spain gets ready for the crunch as pounds slides
#1
Spain gets ready for the crunch as pounds slides
In the coming weeks the full scale of the housing mortgage situation will have to be disclosed by the Spanish Banks those who have given out 110 per cent mortgages with no chance of getting their money back will go to the wall. They who are in the know say your pound will still not fare any better than it is at the moment against the euro in the next year or so. Were you hanging on for an upturn or are you at the end of your cash flow and heading home to blighty.
http://www.theplanningbusiness.com/bpicpoundeuro.htm
http://www.theplanningbusiness.com/bpicpoundeuro.htm
#2
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 835
Re: Spain gets ready for the crunch as pounds slides
In the coming weeks the full scale of the housing mortgage situation will have to be disclosed by the Spanish Banks those who have given out 110 per cent mortgages with no chance of getting their money back will go to the wall. They who are in the know say your pound will still not fare any better than it is at the moment against the euro in the next year or so. Were you hanging on for an upturn or are you at the end of your cash flow and heading home to blighty.
http://www.theplanningbusiness.com/bpicpoundeuro.htm
http://www.theplanningbusiness.com/bpicpoundeuro.htm
#3
Re: Spain gets ready for the crunch as pounds slides
Why care unless of course each time you post your classified ads are linked to piles of rock for sale.......... Papers in order.... No takers ahhh thanks to boards like this the UK punters are a little wiser thank goodness.
#5
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Joined: May 2004
Location: Guadalhorce Valley, Málaga
Posts: 1,059
Re: Spain gets ready for the crunch as pounds slides
In the coming weeks the full scale of the housing mortgage situation will have to be disclosed by the Spanish Banks those who have given out 110 per cent mortgages with no chance of getting their money back will go to the wall. They who are in the know say your pound will still not fare any better than it is at the moment against the euro in the next year or so. Were you hanging on for an upturn or are you at the end of your cash flow and heading home to blighty.
http://www.theplanningbusiness.com/bpicpoundeuro.htm
http://www.theplanningbusiness.com/bpicpoundeuro.htm
#6
Re: Spain gets ready for the crunch as pounds slides
The report is dated late June and he has subsequently had to review his forecast in light of the fact that the dollar weakened again. Also it does not take into account the current US fiasco!
Most of the forecasts I have seen from very reputable sources indicate the current exchange rate £/€ staying in the 1.25 to 1.30 band for some months but until the US sorts out its bale out plans it's anybody's guess.
Most of the forecasts I have seen from very reputable sources indicate the current exchange rate £/€ staying in the 1.25 to 1.30 band for some months but until the US sorts out its bale out plans it's anybody's guess.
#7
Forum Regular
Joined: Oct 2007
Location: Rugby
Posts: 290
Re: Spain gets ready for the crunch as pounds slides
Currently on the street in England you seem to get a maximum of 1.23 and as low as 1.17 (don't go to the Post Office!)
#8
Banned
Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 3,081
Re: Spain gets ready for the crunch as pounds slides
Pensioners are particularly affected.
And what is the sly little dig about an empty life all about?
You are on the same forum as the Posh, so dont infer we are saddos.
#9
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Jun 2006
Posts: 445
Re: Spain gets ready for the crunch as pounds slides
I see it as giving information to people that is why it is published in the first place. It is not to wind people up, and the expats are a large group of people who usually have more interest in these matter as it is closer to their hearts.
Pensioners are particularly affected.
And what is the sly little dig about an empty life all about?
You are on the same forum as the Posh, so dont infer we are saddos.
Pensioners are particularly affected.
And what is the sly little dig about an empty life all about?
You are on the same forum as the Posh, so dont infer we are saddos.
There is significant unsold property in Spain, some estimates as high as 50% of all new properties built in the last two years remain unsold. This has been bankrolled somewhere, meanwhile the list of "property developers" going bust is increasing (these are the people who probably borrowed the money). This coupled with defaults on mortgages( on properties in Spain overvalued by as much as maybe 30%) as the expats retreat to Britain accelerates due to the lack of work (probably caused by the Brit in Spain economy contracting as less Brits bring over less money as the exchange rate cripples the semi fixed income sector ( us pensioners), Somewhere along the line the true amount of bank debt must become public knowledge and then what happens??
predictions to Mystic peg please.
#10
Re: Spain gets ready for the crunch as pounds slides
I believe the real issue will be when the Spanish banks really report the true debt position,
There is significant unsold property in Spain, some estimates as high as 50% of all new properties built in the last two years remain unsold. This has been bankrolled somewhere, meanwhile the list of "property developers" going bust is increasing (these are the people who probably borrowed the money). This coupled with defaults on mortgages( on properties in Spain overvalued by as much as maybe 30%) as the expats retreat to Britain accelerates due to the lack of work (probably caused by the Brit in Spain economy contracting as less Brits bring over less money as the exchange rate cripples the semi fixed income sector ( us pensioners), Somewhere along the line the true amount of bank debt must become public knowledge and then what happens??
predictions to Mystic peg please.
There is significant unsold property in Spain, some estimates as high as 50% of all new properties built in the last two years remain unsold. This has been bankrolled somewhere, meanwhile the list of "property developers" going bust is increasing (these are the people who probably borrowed the money). This coupled with defaults on mortgages( on properties in Spain overvalued by as much as maybe 30%) as the expats retreat to Britain accelerates due to the lack of work (probably caused by the Brit in Spain economy contracting as less Brits bring over less money as the exchange rate cripples the semi fixed income sector ( us pensioners), Somewhere along the line the true amount of bank debt must become public knowledge and then what happens??
predictions to Mystic peg please.
#11
Re: Spain gets ready for the crunch as pounds slides
I thought your savings were guaranteed up to 20000 euros you can insure against non payment through sickness/unemployment etc. I am sure Fred will have some info in that regard. There is a link below re a speech on the 24th September from Joaquín Almunia European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Policy's the point of the speech is the situation of the world financial system and its effects on the European economy and gives a good insight into the present cash flow problems the world is having at present.
http://www.eyeonspain.com/blogs/cost...n-economy.aspx
http://www.eyeonspain.com/blogs/cost...n-economy.aspx
#13
Re: Spain gets ready for the crunch as pounds slides
No, I was talking to someone about mortgages and Spanish banks, and if the same could happen here as happened in the UK with B&B / Northern Rock and he said that each time a mortgage is taken out with a bank the bank has to insure it. I dont actually know if it is true but that was why, he said, that it couldn't happen in Spain
#14
Banned
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 1,094
Re: Spain gets ready for the crunch as pounds slides
No, I was talking to someone about mortgages and Spanish banks, and if the same could happen here as happened in the UK with B&B / Northern Rock and he said that each time a mortgage is taken out with a bank the bank has to insure it. I dont actually know if it is true but that was why, he said, that it couldn't happen in Spain
#15
Re: Spain gets ready for the crunch as pounds slides
Sorry, Posh, for once I cannot agree with you. Nor with the article which to me is the usual bureaucrat's plea for more regulation, more harmonisation and more power.
I certainly agree there is more pain to come. You cannot put Humpty Dumpty together again in a day. But it is very far from a US problem, nor were the causes purely American in origin.
The crisis has come about for two reasons - moronic governments across the world holding interest rates down in order to finance their own profligate ways (and not giving two hoots for the savers (primarily pensioners) they were fleecing, nor the economies such as Spain they were boosting)) and Clinton revoking Glass Steagall at the same time as Gordon decided to remodel regulation in the City. The ECB are at least as culpable as the FED.
Certainly the guys I know are mainly pretty negative on sterling - 10 years of Gordon is a moron has to be paid for. And if you think back to Healey and Callaghan, (the last time we were in this big a mess) then the correlation of a collapsing economy and a collapsing currency is hard to refute.
BUT it is an election year in USA, and a UK one is near too. After which, given the state the public finances are in (and Christ only knows how bad they will be in 12 months time) there is a better than decent chance that interest rates will go up to a level that reflects the amount these morons have increased the money supply by. (How could the world be so unlucky as to have Brown and Greenspan around at the same time?).
I certainly don't see sterling recovering - why should it? In just ten years Gordon has destroyed the stock market, the pension industry, the housing market and the banks. There isnt too much left so I would love to think there is little more damage he can do. But nobody ever went broke overestimating the stupidity of government.
But equally, Fortis tells you the huge problems in the European market are coming to the fore. Sterling could hold. And it might even surprise us against the Euro
I certainly agree there is more pain to come. You cannot put Humpty Dumpty together again in a day. But it is very far from a US problem, nor were the causes purely American in origin.
The crisis has come about for two reasons - moronic governments across the world holding interest rates down in order to finance their own profligate ways (and not giving two hoots for the savers (primarily pensioners) they were fleecing, nor the economies such as Spain they were boosting)) and Clinton revoking Glass Steagall at the same time as Gordon decided to remodel regulation in the City. The ECB are at least as culpable as the FED.
Certainly the guys I know are mainly pretty negative on sterling - 10 years of Gordon is a moron has to be paid for. And if you think back to Healey and Callaghan, (the last time we were in this big a mess) then the correlation of a collapsing economy and a collapsing currency is hard to refute.
BUT it is an election year in USA, and a UK one is near too. After which, given the state the public finances are in (and Christ only knows how bad they will be in 12 months time) there is a better than decent chance that interest rates will go up to a level that reflects the amount these morons have increased the money supply by. (How could the world be so unlucky as to have Brown and Greenspan around at the same time?).
I certainly don't see sterling recovering - why should it? In just ten years Gordon has destroyed the stock market, the pension industry, the housing market and the banks. There isnt too much left so I would love to think there is little more damage he can do. But nobody ever went broke overestimating the stupidity of government.
But equally, Fortis tells you the huge problems in the European market are coming to the fore. Sterling could hold. And it might even surprise us against the Euro