missile

Interesting; It appears the strongest economy in the EU may not be as strong as Merkel would like us to believe?

Moses2013

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...n-in-bad-times

amideislas

I don't know who you are, where you live, or how many languages you speak, but I actually live in Spain and have done for a long time (and all over Europe).

​​​​​​Your narratives just read like someone who doesn't know much about it, and rather mirror the same narratives the English tabloids publish to attract a readership who craves constant reassurance that everywhere else (especially Europe) is still hopelessly inferior.

In fairness, yes, there is another global downturn underway, but that's easily predictable. And everybody will suffer to some extent.

You seem to indicate that Spain may be too weak to suffer it (although amongst the most affected by the last and worst global downturn in memory, has managed to bounce back rather surprisingly), but with brexit still looming and likely to be adversely affecting the UK for decades, you might want to also consider how the looming global economic downturn might affect a severely economically weakened UK. Perhaps by comparison, Spain might look pretty desirable.

Lastly, I can say from a position of direct inside experience, that Spain i​​​​s far from impoverished, as English tabloid readers have been traditionally led to believe. In fact, the quality of life in most parts of Spain is now exceeding many developed parts of Europe, and especially the UK. And that might help explain the rush to move here before things get too dicey.

​​/done

spainrico

I would rather be in Spain with its modern resourced health system, modern transport infrastructure (with most KMs of high-speed train track in the world apart from China), well policed, good education system, lower cost of living, better weather, high speed internet, cultural diversity (3rd on the World Heritage sites list) friendly sociable positive confident people and overall quality of life and expectancy than be in the UK even if property prices crash - (I have also experienced that in the UK) and so what - I bought a house to live in not for property speculation.

Moses2013

Good point.and a property price crash will only affect the people who speculate. As long as it's a home or you know you can afford the mortgage in the first place, it's still better than before.That's life and you can buy a pair of shoes today and tomorrow they might be half price.

Leper

There's no property crash coming. OK some Brits are sitting on their Spanish property while eyeing Brexit or NoBrexit. There is increasing interest in Spanish property from countries like Belgium, Norway and at worst prices will remain as at present.

Loafing Along

Interesting article in Invertia today reporting on the opening of the Homes exhibition:
https://www.invertia.com/es/noticias...e-plano-308320

Quick summary - what interests buyers today is purchasing from plan. This, in spite of the fact that there are still some 450,000 properties unsold from past years., a stock that has reduced every year for the past three years . Quotes the average purchaser of a principal residence ( not holiday home ) has a budget of €272.000,- Also claims that there are much "better" controls on developers so people can buy off-plan with more confidence
Overall message being the market has returned to normality..

chopera

Growth in Spain was 0.4% in the last quarter. Highest of the major eurozone economies. Personally I try not to read too much into GDP figures, but it doesn't match what the OP was suggesting.

amideislas

Here's something to lighten the mood; unscientific, but amusing:

European Countries, Ranked from Worst to First

Moses2013

People from Belgium have always bought properties and if you look at coastal areas around Alt Empordà, Baix Empordà & la Selva you'll always see them.
Especially Empuriabrava which is the largest residential marina in Europe always had Belgian buyers, but they are still only a small percentage (small country) and won't make the difference.
This thread is based on various news and reports found online and in reality every area/story will be different. Right now there are nearly 870.000 properties for sale on idealista. Mark Stücklin from Spanish Property Insight usually gives good information based on the Land Registry reports
https://www.spanishpropertyinsight.c...erty-in-spain/
https://www.spanishpropertyinsight.c...d-takes-shape/

We know that 16,209 Spanish homes were bought by foreign buyers in the second quarter of 2019, but where do they buy? This map above from the Spanish Association of Land Registrars helps answer that question. The map shows the percentage of sales in each province that involved a foreign buyer. The higher the market share of foreign buyers, the darker the red.

The market with the highest proportion of property buyers from abroad was Alicante province in the Valencia Region, home to the Costa Blanca, where 41.81% of home sales in Q2 involved a foreign buyer.

Next came Tenerife province in the Canary islands (28.91%), followed by Malaga / Costa del Sol (27.9%), the Balearics (27.49%), and Girona / Costa Brava in Catalonia (26.04%).

In many provinces in the north and west of Spain foreign buyers are almost insignificant in the market, especially in Galicia where they are less than 1% of the market in all four provinces.

steviedeluxe

It only seems like yesterday (well maybe 7-8 years ago) that the doomsters were spreading their dire warnings left, right and centre. They were advising people that things would never improve in Spain after the big crisis of 2008-2012. Instead we now find that if anything property prices have increased too much in cities like Madrid and Barcelona - as indeed have rents.
Will there be a slow down in 2020? Possibly, if tourism is hit by that virus, or any other number of possible events. But if the world economy slows, we'll probably see the big powers pump money to get things moving again.
So, it seems unlikely there will be a big crash coming. Always a possibility no doubt, but unlikely.

britishbull

The property cycle in UK is circa eighteen years, from boom to bust, the last peak in 2008 (actually prices stalled but did not dive in many areas in 2003) so next one is around 2026. You also have to take into account the currency cycles so if you can catch the Euro when it dives, say from Italian bank collapse, whilst property is also falling (or just buy something that needs renovation) then you can get a nice capital gain out of it all. Do not know the property cycle in Spain, though, but there is still plenty of value in detached houses if you do not mind some work although 2020 will be the last chance for Brits to get into EU before final Brexit exit so that will probably distort things, maybe more in the rental market.

Do agree that lots of Spain is much more pleasant than UK, with things like transport much cheaper and yet better quality. The reason for this is if you are on a modest income then tax in the UK (except for council tax) is a lot lower than in Spain which starts taxing even low income earners and not many things like tax credit. The tax base being a lot wider should mean they will survive the next recession better than the UK which will either massively devalue the pound again on the back of massive increase in debt or just collapse into anarchy (ie there is no solution that would be politically acceptable).

missile

House prices reflect the prosperity and confidence at any given time.

I don't know why you would think there is some sort of divine influence which creates a property cycle?

Many "experts" predict it is inevitable there will be another financial crash, but I don't know any who have predicted 2026?

In this turbulent world, the only things we can rely on are death and taxes.

el collado kid

Property market crash coming.Yawn,Yawn,Yawn yes there is when do not know???My only prediction the sun will rise today in spain and i will sit in this afternoon that is a certainty and tomorrow more than likely the day after too that is the only thing i can predict.Of course unless it rains which it dos happen, there is another certainty

Moses2013

Ironically our area no longer allows building on the coast and planning permission for over 15000 new properties has been suspended. Great news for the environment and I don't see prices dropping anytime soon. Other areas with over development will of course be different.