lee8

Joaquin Aurioles who is a professor of Economics at the University of Malaga has just released a book entitled the "The economy of the Province of Malaga", it analysed the current and future structure of Malaga`s economy.

Since 1994 Malaga or the Costa Del Sol has seen increases in tourism and construction far greater than any other European region.

Many immigrants from other provinces and countries flocked to the region in search of jobs for which there were plenty.

Many called it Paradise, but since paradise is a concept and concepts change, the Estate agencies have slimmed, the constructors have left and the workers are now unemployed.

Malaga has in the past been lucky that it relied on two sectors that have been growing since 1994, but at the cost of more productive industries.

This reliance and dependence may well cost the region dearly in the future, with current Tourism figures showing a down turn in demand in the region, it may result in one of Europe`s poorest regions.

Last months unemployment figures showed an increase of 4,989 the largest increase in a decade, leaving 6 out of ten Andulucians who lost there jobs last month are from Malaga province.

It was also the fifth consecutive month the figure has increased.There are currently 100,000 people dependant on the construction industry in Malaga alone.Malaga also has Spains worst level of employment, the region has 92% of people on tempory contracts.

pete_l

It's called FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt) and has been used as an underhand method of selling things for over half a century.
Maybe the guy's right - probably he's wrong. Either way the only thing we can say for sure is that he'll sell more books than if it was titled
Malaga Economy, boom time

lee8

He`s not alone Unicaja bank have also backed the books predictions, many trade Unions are warning of the 2 sectors have reduced significantly for the first time in 15 years including Antonio Herrera of the CC OO one of the countries top trade unions, this along with the world banks predicting less growth than we`ve enjoyed previously will result in less growth in the industry that Malaga has relied on.

SoJohn

Interesting! I imagine that is causing big problems along with the increased cost of living.

Pete has a point though. I don't think he would sell many books if the subject was on a more positive note.

Doom and gloom sells. He is hardly impartial

lee8

Its an economical reference work, you won`t find it in great demand outside of University sources, he`s not done it to make money, just used to research on campus and within the Financial/business sectors.

I doubt he`s goin to be the next Cervantes.

SoJohn

Sure, but why not release a paper or report. If he's not in it for personal gain, why release a book?

I'm not saying he is wrong or right but you have to admit, he has a vested interest.

Econ

I think if you are out and about on the ground 'certainly in the south' this will have been clear to see coming for a while.

One of the most disappointing things is the amount of investment in the south of Spain 'in Spain in general' and not a lot has been done with the money, nothing in respect to the future, it has generally all been take. Money should have been ploughed back in, to create other types of industry for when this time would eventually come, not only here but in the north as it will come there also. The unemployed here will go back to their home towns in the north when not getting work here which will also create work problems there if not already.
Very little of any of the gains has even been spent on creating a proper infrastructure to cope with the amount of people and traffic with occupancy as it is now... never mind if if where higher, politicians where too busy digging holes in the ground to hide it all.

I can't remember the guys name but a Dutch industrialist warned about this some years ago 'lack of local reinvestment in Spain by local government and industry that is', if I can find anything on him I will post it.

lee8

Many non Spaniards have commented on the situation in Southern Spain, the North is far more secure or as secure as any other Euro zone economy but the south has seen lots of dependence on the construction front followed behind by tourism.

Now Spain will have to compete with the Emerging Markets within Europe such as Turkey who many investor`s see as the next boom economy.

The Chinese tourism industry didn`t view Spain as a good investment opportunity, the current influx`s of Chinese bazaars have alot to do with the fact the Spanish govt doesn`t collect tax from them in the first 5 yrs of trading, then they get a further allowance after, many predict the bazaars will then either make themselves bankrupt or find a loop hole and start the 5 yrs cycle again.

Econ

Yes, but wait until the problem gets worse in the south and many that came from the north start returning looking for work there.

You know... I really don't know about Turkey, I may be wrong but I just can't see it as a major European destination myself 'therefore a boom economy!', certainly not anywhere near what Spain, Portugal and France where or are, I think many of them would spread into the rest of Europe than us go there.

Could never work this one out myself, the Spanish government do more for the Chinese than they do for their own citizens trying to start a business.

The film industry is a classic example... Spain is loosing hundreds of millions from the film industry every year, international productions used to flock here in their droves but now things are too expensive so they only get a fraction of those productions from what they did even 5 years ago, some tax concessions there would bring a lot of that work 'and money' back... even the British government have seen the money this brings in 'not before their time mind you'... Maybe the PSOE is secretly run by the Chinese

lee8

Morgan Stanley and the Grant Thornton International Business Report list Turkey in the top Four current world Emerging Markets, the other three were Mexico,Indonesia and Pakistan.

It`s not for sure how strong Turkey could get, but its a better bet than most other European countries for second home property investment.

Having said that I doubt as many Expats will view Turkey in the same way they view Spain, that being an easy place to relocate or purchase in.

Econ

OK, maybe Turkey will be boom * for the Turkish * but I really don't know if it would much beyond that... but then again... who knows?

Beachcomber

A Spanish friend who works as a bricklayer for a local builder has been laid off and has been told by his employer that there will be no more work, at least until the general election, and that if the socialists win that's it for the foreseeable future.

Not only that but he owns a plot of land with an old campo house on it which has been passed down through the generations through which the Junta de Andalucía has decided to put a motorway and the centre of which is to be expropriated for the grand sum of €1,29 per square meter. This means that he will get about €2,500 and two useless strips of land either side of it.

Needless to say he will not be voting PSOE again but the worrying thing is that he has threatened to take his wife and his family to the house and commit mass suicide rather than hand it over voluntarily.

The socialists have not only ruined the economy and the ethos and spirit of the country but also the lives of many people who are in a similar situation and after nearly twenty five years of living in Spain I shall seriously be considering my options if they are not booted into touch in March.

Econ

I hope your friend doesn't... I know Spanish people who have been in the same position 'building the A7' and they also got a pittance for what would have been very valuable land 'non catastro valuation';

It really angered me when they where elected 'my Spanish wife cried for 2 days...! i'm not joking.', I just couldn't understand why the voters had been so * stupid * or maybe cowardly to vote PSOE and was very disapointed in the Spanish voters for doing this, but... sadly there is a high chance they will get in again!

Polls showed 80% against Zapatero but 40% would vote PSOE again! (OK this could change before the elections )

Look how long Blair lasted - Vote buying, Zapatero has had this as a priority since he got in and is still convinced that he can take more to buy more. Who is advising him? you couldn't invent the stuff he comes up with. :curse:

Funny, I actually talked with the Mrs about your last comment on a couple of occasions... when it is something we would never have considered until a year or so ago, she is Spanish and I have been here going on 27 years, the problem is where do you go that's not the other side of the world? wonder what Portugal is like now?

lee8

My wife is Basque and prefers the UK to Spain, she has mixed feelings about the powers governing Spain, she as many Basques do feel that the old regimes are still strong in these modern times.Especially in a time that has seen anti Royalist views expressed in the media as never before, at least until the King told Chavez to "Shut up" you could almost feel the opportunity was staged.

Econ

The UK has major problems with it's politics also so nothing to gain there.

Old regimes are in the Spanish blood and will be for a long time to come, I also think some Spanish can carry too big 'very big' chip on their shoulder from the past, the past is the past and some things need to be pushed away to move on... difficult as it may seem or be for some! Why waste so much energy trying to retaliate on the past when the people responsible are no longer here or have any power, so much can be gained using that energy towards the future?

Yes, the UK started going through this years ago, a lot of this is the fault of the media (or us for letting the media away with it), it is a media world now and scandal means money so it seems to be accepted for the media to go out and create hurt for business. It doesn't help when respect seems no longer an important part of education for many in this day and age.