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Ivanmax is back (Spanish housing bubble)

Ivanmax is back (Spanish housing bubble)

Old Feb 2nd 2011, 9:04 pm
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Default Ivanmax is back (Spanish housing bubble)

In September 2005 I wrote the following message:

I am Spanish and lived in Britain for five years (went to college there). My advice:

DON´T, DON´T, DON´T BUY PROPERTY IN SPAIN!!!

We got a huge housing bubble here and it is about to burst. If you want to invest in property go to Croacia (nice weather and people), Turkey or anywhere else.

There is a huge housing problem in my country and things are going to get very nasty in the next years. If you buy a property in Spain you will be losing money and I suppose you don´t fancy that do you?

By the way, I bought a nice massionete in Southampton in 1999 for 52000 pounds. The same kind of property here cost about four times the price and it is built with the crappiest materials in the Earth (the guys who build the houses in Spain only care about making money quickly).

Buy yourself a house in my beautiful country and you regret having done it in less than two years. Prices are going down for sure. It can not be otherwise in a country where the average salary is 600 pounds (monthly) and a one bedroom flat can go easily for 250000 pounds.

Take my advice and put your money somewhere else.

A nice Spanish man,

Iván.


It seems everything I predicted has happened. Housing prices in Spain have fallen enormously in the last five years, and Spain is about to go bankrupt. The unemployment rate is over 20% (43% among young people). Believe me now when I tell you things are going to get a lot worse. House prices are going to keep on going down and down and down...just because nobody can afford to by a house in Spain at the moment and because there are over 1.5 million houses on sale.

Wait and see.
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Old Feb 2nd 2011, 9:08 pm
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Default Re: Ivanmax is back (Spanish housing bubble)

Ever the optimist!
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Old Feb 2nd 2011, 9:10 pm
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Default Re: Ivanmax is back (Spanish housing bubble)

Well, if you were a 35 year old guy living here you wouldn´t be very optimistic, believe me!
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Old Feb 2nd 2011, 9:19 pm
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Default Re: Ivanmax is back (Spanish housing bubble)

Originally Posted by ivanmax
Well, if you were a 35 year old guy living here you wouldn´t be very optimistic, believe me!
Well done ivanmax

Did you put your money where your mouth is and make a lot of money out of the economic problems and housing crash?

If not, why not?
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Old Feb 2nd 2011, 9:26 pm
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Default Re: Ivanmax is back (Spanish housing bubble)

The property crash in Spain was easily predictable and prices have indeed fallen by at least 30% since 2005 and will probably fall further, though nobody knows for certain.

But Spain has got something going for it unlike any other destination in Europe for expats especially; climate, friendly people and a stable, democratic government. People will always flock to Spain for those reasons.

And since the Middle East is now in turmoil, unfortunately, even more people will be heading to Spain for holidays or to live permanently. And the Spanish economy will recover in due course, the positive signs are already there.
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Old Feb 2nd 2011, 9:28 pm
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Default Re: Ivanmax is back (Spanish housing bubble)

I never tried to make money out of this. The aim of the first thread was to help people realize they could make the biggest mistake of their lives if they borrowed money to buy real state in my country and use it as an investment. As I said several times over the first thread:

If you got the money and you don´t mind prices dropping do buy yourself a nice house in Spain. Great people, great weather, great food and drink and freedom to do almost everything you want as long as you don´t harm anybody else. What else can you desire?

The Spanish economy will for sure recover sometime. The thing is that won´t be happening at least until 2020. And until then house prices will keep on dropping.
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Old Feb 2nd 2011, 9:34 pm
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Default Re: Ivanmax is back (Spanish housing bubble)

Originally Posted by ivanmax
In September 2005 I wrote the following message:

I am Spanish and lived in Britain for five years (went to college there). My advice:

DON´T, DON´T, DON´T BUY PROPERTY IN SPAIN!!!

We got a huge housing bubble here and it is about to burst. If you want to invest in property go to Croacia (nice weather and people), Turkey or anywhere else.

There is a huge housing problem in my country and things are going to get very nasty in the next years. If you buy a property in Spain you will be losing money and I suppose you don´t fancy that do you?

By the way, I bought a nice massionete in Southampton in 1999 for 52000 pounds. The same kind of property here cost about four times the price and it is built with the crappiest materials in the Earth (the guys who build the houses in Spain only care about making money quickly).

Buy yourself a house in my beautiful country and you regret having done it in less than two years. Prices are going down for sure. It can not be otherwise in a country where the average salary is 600 pounds (monthly) and a one bedroom flat can go easily for 250000 pounds.

Take my advice and put your money somewhere else.

A nice Spanish man,

Iván.


It seems everything I predicted has happened. Housing prices in Spain have fallen enormously in the last five years, and Spain is about to go bankrupt. The unemployment rate is over 20% (43% among young people). Believe me now when I tell you things are going to get a lot worse. House prices are going to keep on going down and down and down...just because nobody can afford to by a house in Spain at the moment and because there are over 1.5 million houses on sale.

Wait and see.
I always said the same thing, about England too. You only have to do the maths
Leaving out creditcard bills etc look at salary in 1/3rds
1/3 for housing, either rent or mortgage repairs to building etc
1/3 for local taxes and utilities gas electricity water etc
and 1/3 for food etc and luxuries if you earn a lot.

If the 1/3 for housing doesn't cover your housing you're overstretched already and everything else can fall down like a pack of cards.

if you only earn 600 euros a month, you only have 200 for housing!
Only those who own their houses outright can get through these hard times unscathed.
If you're thinking of buying a house in Spain, make sure your total housing costs don't exceed 1/3 of your income. Preferably of one of a couple's income. Because you never know when the other one will lose a job/a client/ their health.
I know this. because I've ridden the housing boom twice, but got it a bit wrong this time around partly because of the fall in the £!
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Old Feb 2nd 2011, 9:36 pm
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Default Re: Ivanmax is back (Spanish housing bubble)

Originally Posted by HBG
The property crash in Spain was easily predictable and prices have indeed fallen by at least 30% since 2005 and will probably fall further, though nobody knows for certain.

.
Well on the Costas, I agree we've seen at least a 30% drop, but in the major cities probably only half that.

But I agree with the general sentiment, house prices in Spain are going to keep dropping. I think they'll reach bottom around 2013-14 and then stay there for a good 5-10 years

The good news is I am starting to see good properties I would consider buying in the North, though definitely not in the South where most things on the Costas seem to be badly made.

On the Costas I am expecting prices over the next few years to reach fully 33% of what people were asking in 2005. Yes, one third of peak prices!
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Old Feb 2nd 2011, 9:42 pm
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Default Re: Ivanmax is back (Spanish housing bubble)

Two doom monger threads about Spanish housing market ..........

Must be a conspiracy.

Viewing appointments for Brits is up almost everywhere. Buyers seeking advice on financing in both UK and Spain to buy a property in Spain is up as well.

Lets hope Ivanmax is bombarding Spanish forums with solutions to the Spanish unemployment problem.
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Old Feb 2nd 2011, 9:53 pm
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Default Re: Ivanmax is back (Spanish housing bubble)

I know a well established Real Estate agent of many year in the Ayamonte area who had his best year ever just gone selling property.
Selling mainly to the Spanish obviously @ heavily discounted prices
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Old Feb 2nd 2011, 9:56 pm
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Default Re: Ivanmax is back (Spanish housing bubble)

The solution to the unemployment rate would be stopping relying on the housing market and start investing on new technologies, alternative energies and R&D. There are millions of university graduates in Spain who can´t find a job, because not much brains are needed to lay bricks. But what is the Spanish government doing? Cutting corners on education and research. That´s why I believe things are bound to get worse.
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Old Feb 2nd 2011, 10:06 pm
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Default Re: Ivanmax is back (Spanish housing bubble)

Originally Posted by ivanmax

There are millions of university graduates in Spain who can´t find a job,

Millions?

you sure like to exagerate!
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Old Feb 2nd 2011, 10:17 pm
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Default Re: Ivanmax is back (Spanish housing bubble)

If you can read Spanish check that piece of news:

http://www.publico.es/dinero/276949/...-paro-de-la-ue

12% of the Spaniars with a degree are unemployed. If we consider 39% of those between 25 and 34 finish a degree in Spain, I believe saying millions of university graduates are unemployed in Spain is not an exageration. And you must also take into account many university graduates are carrying out very badly paid jobs which are not related to what they studied.

Last edited by ivanmax; Feb 2nd 2011 at 10:19 pm.
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Old Feb 2nd 2011, 10:21 pm
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Default Re: Ivanmax is back (Spanish housing bubble)

Originally Posted by ivanmax
The solution to the unemployment rate would be stopping relying on the housing market and start investing on new technologies, alternative energies and R&D. There are millions of university graduates in Spain who can´t find a job, because not much brains are needed to lay bricks. But what is the Spanish government doing? Cutting corners on education and research. That´s why I believe things are bound to get worse.
I have to agree With Ivan (up to a point). Spain is so well placed to take advantage of alternative technologies, even to export solar power at certain times of the year, certainly to be self sufficient. Spain should be leading the way here. But even Spain is importing Chinese solar panels and batteries etc... Guess from where;-) Industry may be a dirty word. It may be dirty in fact. But without industry we're just giving the other side of the world all the 'muck'.......... and all the 'brass'
We should be using those young brains to invent solar accumulating tiles for every patio/roof etc. Then we should be manufacturing them. It's been too easy to sit back and use the sun only to attract tourists and retirees.
Spain has everything a financially successful country needs except belief in technology, and tenacity at the top. I like Zap...and I don't like Ratboy at all. But Spain needs to decide if it's really playing with the big boys or if it's got everything it needs already.
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Old Feb 2nd 2011, 10:27 pm
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Default Re: Ivanmax is back (Spanish housing bubble)

Originally Posted by angiescarr
I have to agree With Ivan (up to a point). Spain is so well placed to take advantage of alternative technologies, even to export solar power at certain times of the year, certainly to be self sufficient. Spain should be leading the way here. But even Spain is importing Chinese solar panels and batteries etc... Guess from where;-) Industry may be a dirty word. It may be dirty in fact. But without industry we're just giving the other side of the world all the 'muck'.......... and all the 'brass'
We should be using those young brains to invent solar accumulating tiles for every patio/roof etc. Then we should be manufacturing them. It's been too easy to sit back and use the sun only to attract tourists and retirees.
Spain has everything a financially successful country needs except belief in technology, and tenacity at the top. I like Zap...and I don't like Ratboy at all. But Spain needs to decide if it's really playing with the big boys or if it's got everything it needs already.
Don't presume to know enough about the politics, but the solar stuff (and retro-installations might make some of the houses a more attractive buy too....)
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