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Historic moment: EU Referendum

Historic moment: EU Referendum

Old Aug 4th 2016, 6:36 am
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Default Re: Historic moment: EU Referendum

Originally Posted by amideislas
We don't need no stinking facts. I know what I want to know, and they ain't it.
I don't know what I want to know and you (or anybody else) cannot tell me because you (or anybody else) doesn't know.
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Old Aug 5th 2016, 6:38 am
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Default Re: Historic moment: EU Referendum

My own guess is this.

The visa requirements to leave and return to Spain for UK expats will be either non-existent, or very light post-Brexit. Because the Spanish government will not want their economy damaged by imposing the type of visa restrictions that the UK will demand from most other countries post-Brext, so there will be an agreement between the UK and Spain on this.

However, I doubt if the UK state pension will uprate with prices or wages for people living in Spain. (It also currently guarantees an annual uprating of 2.5 percent, but that is now under review in the UK.) It will become a frozen pension regime country.

So relative to the UK state pension in England, it will decrease more and more in value over the years. They have already stopped people, from last year, getting the Winter Fuel Payment in Spain or Portugal (among others).

Because the exchange rate of the pound to the euro makes it more disadvantageous for UK people to buy euros, it will hit tourism in Spain. For example, the rate before June was about 1.25. It is now hovering about 1.17. They also claim air fares might go up. This means things like property prices in the tourist areas of Spain will drop with a decline in demand.
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Old Aug 5th 2016, 8:04 am
  #183  
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Default Re: Historic moment: EU Referendum

Originally Posted by ukthesis
My own guess is this.

The visa requirements to leave and return to Spain for UK expats will be either non-existent, or very light post-Brexit. Because the Spanish government will not want their economy damaged by imposing the type of visa restrictions that the UK will demand from most other countries post-Brext, so there will be an agreement between the UK and Spain on this.

However, I doubt if the UK state pension will uprate with prices or wages for people living in Spain. (It also currently guarantees an annual uprating of 2.5 percent, but that is now under review in the UK.) It will become a frozen pension regime country.

So relative to the UK state pension in England, it will decrease more and more in value over the years. They have already stopped people, from last year, getting the Winter Fuel Payment in Spain or Portugal (among others).

Because the exchange rate of the pound to the euro makes it more disadvantageous for UK people to buy euros, it will hit tourism in Spain. For example, the rate before June was about 1.25. It is now hovering about 1.17. They also claim air fares might go up. This means things like property prices in the tourist areas of Spain will drop with a decline in demand.
Could be true. We shall see. I suspect little will actually change, simply because Britain can't afford it.

I know the peninsula enjoys a lot of British tourism, but in my patch, British tourism accounts for only a small fraction of the big picture. The vast majority of tourism here is from continental Europe. And generally speaking, Europeans exhibit a willingness to spend a bit more than their British counterparts. So I doubt declining British tourism would have much effect in my patch. Especially considering that there's already not enough accommodation to meet demand.

And well, WFP is rather meaningless here, except to get a new iPad or something, courtesy of British taxpayers.
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Old Aug 5th 2016, 10:19 am
  #184  
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Default Re: Historic moment: EU Referendum

Originally Posted by amideislas
Could be true. We shall see. I suspect little will actually change, simply because Britain can't afford it.

I know the peninsula enjoys a lot of British tourism, but in my patch, British tourism accounts for only a small fraction of the big picture. The vast majority of tourism here is from continental Europe. And generally speaking, Europeans exhibit a willingness to spend a bit more than their British counterparts. So I doubt declining British tourism would have much effect in my patch. Especially considering that there's already not enough accommodation to meet demand.

And well, WFP is rather meaningless here, except to get a new iPad or something, courtesy of British taxpayers.
I got my pensions statement recently. Key points to me with 30 qualifying years (the min needed for a full pension - old system).

The new pension needs 35 years, but they will work out the amount on both and I get the higher of the two.

There is no index linked increases for non-UK residents out of the EU, unless there is a treaty/agreement. We have some with other countries, but as part of the EU it was not needed. So we will need to negotiate that as part of Brexit/article 50.

For a bit of fun, for those rushing to get nationality see below

Jon
Attached Thumbnails Historic moment: EU Referendum-nationality.jpg  

Last edited by Jon-Bxl; Aug 5th 2016 at 10:26 am. Reason: typo
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Old Aug 6th 2016, 9:29 am
  #185  
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Default Re: Historic moment: EU Referendum

Originally Posted by Jon-Bxl
I got my pensions statement recently. Key points to me with 30 qualifying years (the min needed for a full pension - old system).

The new pension needs 35 years, but they will work out the amount on both and I get the higher of the two.

There is no index linked increases for non-UK residents out of the EU, unless there is a treaty/agreement. We have some with other countries, but as part of the EU it was not needed. So we will need to negotiate that as part of Brexit/article 50.

For a bit of fun, for those rushing to get nationality see below

Jon
I would think that there may be an agreement that was superseded by both joining the Common Market all those years ago since even in Francos days people used to retire from UK to Spain (some may even be still alive) and you did not hears complaints from them as you do from Australia etc.
Also there are many reciprocal agreements with for example USA but not Canada and Far East countries but not Australia so I feel if BREXIT actually happens an agreement will be quickly concluded since it will also affect Spanish pensioners in UK and they will also protest to their government.

PS. You are to young to have 35 years in 😉

Last edited by EsuriJohn; Aug 6th 2016 at 9:32 am.
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Old Aug 6th 2016, 11:17 am
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Default Re: Historic moment: EU Referendum

Yes, but I wonder how many Spanish pensioners live in the UK. I would imagine that only a fraction of the number of our pensioners in Spain. This could mean that Spain feels under little obligation to conclude reciprocal agreements in the matter of Spanish health care and the UK state pension.

I would certainly expect the UK state pension to be frozen, since I know that this is the situation in most countries of the world. Brits living in places like Australia, Canada and New Zealand have never had uprated UK state pensions. There is even a website devoted to this standing complaint of theirs for many years. I think that any Brexit arrangements will not mean uprated pensions, at least.

Maybe the health care services available to Brits in Spain will be next in line for a "review, after the state pension.

The other point is that there are a lot of other nationalities living in Spain. I went to Costa Brava and the big element now is Russian speakers. I saw few Brits. So the Spanish government could ask why should they give "preferential" cover to Brits when most of the tourist dollars spent in Spain is from non-British residents. Many or most of whom are still paying to be in the EU club and so will expect to get a better level of protection than those outside it (like the UK).
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Old Aug 6th 2016, 12:22 pm
  #187  
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Default Re: Historic moment: EU Referendum

Originally Posted by EsuriJohn
I would think that there may be an agreement that was superseded by both joining the Common Market all those years ago since even in Francos days people used to retire from UK to Spain (some may even be still alive) and you did not hears complaints from them as you do from Australia etc.
Also there are many reciprocal agreements with for example USA but not Canada and Far East countries but not Australia so I feel if BREXIT actually happens an agreement will be quickly concluded since it will also affect Spanish pensioners in UK and they will also protest to their government.

PS. You are to young to have 35 years in 😉
Aaah John you silver tongued man!! Thank you!

Had I not retired those years ago, I would easily have had 35 years. I now have to decide if it is worth it to buy voluntary NI contributions to make it 35 and cover some of my retirement already started , with no NI contributions made.

I also have to enquire if I can pay for previous years, which is cheaper, as NI went up each year. If I can go back a bunch of years it will be better. The UK did that before, and gave an extended 'amnesty' to buy old NI. I hope as they have a new pensions rule and also added 5 years, that it will still be possible to do that 'amnesty'. Or if I will have to buy 5 years at todays rate, more expensive.

So its a simple spreadsheet exercise and the index linking will be a major part of that calculation. Without it (meaning we couldn't agree a treaty) we will all lose that really important index linking. It may even make it financially useless to buy more NI. Maybe I will have to wait to see if a treaty is made and then buy NI to make it up to 35 years.

I have a feeling though that this will work out. We both mentioned in our posts that there are agreements in place in non-EU countries. But I need to contact HMRC (now that they have delivered my pension statement) regarding the NI voluntary payments and the rules and timing of buying more. Once I know the cheapest cost for +5 years, the spreadsheet will tell me whether I buy or not... or wait to see what happens re the treaty.

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Old Aug 6th 2016, 9:38 pm
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Default Re: Historic moment: EU Referendum

Originally Posted by ukthesis
Yes, but I wonder how many Spanish pensioners live in the UK. I would imagine that only a fraction of the number of our pensioners in Spain. This could mean that Spain feels under little obligation to conclude reciprocal agreements in the matter of Spanish health care and the UK state pension.
What difference does the number of pensioners make? The UK pays Spain for each and every state pensioner an amount equivalent to the per capita cost of health care in Spain - that's about €3500 per person per year.

Spain would pay slightly more for each Spanish pensioner in the UK as the costs are higher in the UK.

It's a very simple arrangement and I can see no logical reason why it would not continue.

If the UK did not continue the arrangement then all those UK pensioners could get full NHS treatment in the UK just by flying back for the duration of the treatment which would work out more expensive for the UK.

Last edited by Fred James; Aug 6th 2016 at 9:42 pm.
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Old Aug 7th 2016, 7:58 am
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Default Re: Historic moment: EU Referendum

Originally Posted by Fred James
If the UK did not continue the arrangement then all those UK pensioners could get full NHS treatment in the UK just by flying back for the duration of the treatment which would work out more expensive for the UK.
But that recent change re those on state pension is I believe for expats living in the EU? So if we leave the EU will that still stand? I would think probably not as expats outside Europe would surely call a foul? In addition of course that is fine for conditions where you are able to fly back and sort it out in the UK but not much use for instances requiring immediate treatment.

Last edited by Rosemary; Aug 7th 2016 at 8:21 am. Reason: corrected quote
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Old Aug 7th 2016, 10:47 am
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Default Re: Historic moment: EU Referendum

I doubt that it would apply to new applicants as presumably the S1 form would cease to exist as it is an EU form. However, those that already have cover might be treated differently.

You also have to note that existing treaty rights cannot be taken away retrospectively (in theory). They are called "acquired rights" and are covered by the Vienna Convention on Treaties.

There was an interesting article published before the referendum

Emigration: Why British expats have nothing to fear from Brexit - Telegraph
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Old Aug 9th 2016, 7:59 am
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Default Re: Historic moment: EU Referendum

They may well be treated differently as you say Fred. However the link relates to the freedom of movement rather than acquired rights re health care from how I read it. Personally I think that yes it would be great for current expats to continue to get their free health care if it happens. However that would be grossly unfair to those expats or future expats that because below state retirement age have not yet got free health care. I think that would leave some feeling quite bitter and unjustly dealt with. I suppose we must just wait and see what the outcome is .
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Old Sep 1st 2016, 12:32 pm
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Default Re: Historic moment: EU Referendum

Good to see no 2nd referendum if and article 50 will not be triggered this year.

Quote from BBC

The prime minister has said the UK government will not trigger Article 50 - the official mechanism for beginning the process of leaving the EU - until the start of 2017 at the earliest.
From that moment, discussions over the terms of the UK's exit will conclude in two years unless all 28 members of the EU agree to extend them

Government to 'push ahead' with Brexit - BBC News
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Old Sep 17th 2016, 7:07 am
  #193  
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Default Re: Historic moment: EU Referendum

As I mentioned in a previous post, I was very unhappy with both sides in the pre-referendum campaigns and the scare tactics etc. Overall IMO I felt that Remain, on balance, were the worse. Since then we haven't e.g seen an immediate emergency austerity budget, and yes the pound has fallen (helping our exports). We also recently announced record employment numbers.

So I don't think we have (yet) felt the scary stuff. But for the moment Remain overplayed their hand, IMO, and I suspect the voters felt that in advance. The immediate 'shock' they told us would happen, hasn't.

I also mentioned (IMO) that it would get worse before it got better, and I think the triggering of Article 50 next year will kick of some tough times. Also in politics/economy there is quite a long lead-time, and I ignore all the knee-jerk reactions post 23/6.

Well according to the BBC yesterday they announced that the EU elite are in another interminable set of meetings and are discussing the serious impact of losing the UK's funding - the SECOND largest (nett) IN-payer in the EU.

The Brexit campaign were finagling the 350m number and Remain correctly said that was a gross outlay, but ignored the input we get from the EU.

Well now we know. According to the BBC yesterday, on the breakfast show they had the numbers and some charts etc....

+ The EU will have to fund a 10 billion Euro 'shortfall' (rounded)
+ Germany may have to increase their contribution to 25%

So we are entering negotiations with this chunk in the 'plus column'. 10bn = Roughly 200m a week.

In the 'minus column' will be the costs of the trade deals, fallout, costs of new border controls - etc. etc. A very complicated and potentially costly negotiation

The fallout will be large as we have some very miffed elites, on the other side of 'the table', who feel we have 'snubbed' them. They are not used to that!
Doubly as they will lose this SIGNIFICANT money from us, for them to play with.
Triply as their home countries will be asked to pay more. (Those countries that pay in that is, the minority of EU members)

Or (quadruply?) maybe they will be asked to CUT cost, something the EU finds 'difficult' as even in financial crisis funding increased. I wont go into the whole messy debate about EU account audits, financial transparency etc etc.

(Quintuply?) The majority voting-block of EU countries i.e the net receivers of money will put a LOT of pressure to maintain and maybe even increase the money they get... perhaps. I doubt they will ask for less!

It's general election prep for some big players i.e Germany/France. Tricky times. But on the other side of the table we will have some very angry people - under all sorts of pressure! Making open/friendly negotiations hard to envision!

Either way a LOT of pressure on them too - on their side of the table.

So tough times ahead... and I agree with Remain .... uncertain times ahead. And as we all know, markets hate uncertainty, business are wary of investing in uncertain times etc.

But the correct fears of this unavoidable uncertainty - were not enough for me personally. I feel that we would need to 'put up' with the bad (rough vs smooth) to get to the overall good ... in time. And I have confidence in our ability to finally come out better off with control of our democracy in our hands.

But its just my opinion, no-one knows the future, and we had to make a choice in a time of fear campaigns on both sides. We had to choose based on personal situation and a 'prediction' of what we guessed the future would hold.

Lets see - no 'voter regret' from me, though confident overall, I admit to being a tad nervous about post Article 50... and the next 2-3 years of uncertainty.

Jon

PS I also wonder about the impact of the US elections, where IMO the people are choosing between 2 'evils'. (Figuratively) Better the 'devil' you know?? That could affect the whole discussion a lot... more uncertainty!

Last edited by Jon-Bxl; Sep 17th 2016 at 7:33 am.
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Old Sep 17th 2016, 8:05 am
  #194  
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Default Re: Historic moment: EU Referendum

The whole thing was made a shambles mostly by the media who instead of employing old fashioned journalism just sat at their computers and waited for the press releases to come in and then printed them. Unfortunately this is still happening with regular sensationalism. The latest is the farmers are worried. I suspect that farmers will still receive subsidies only this time paid by the Uk bu the money will not be propping up the CAP and the dreadfully inefficient farming practices of other countries. It's not really that long ago when an investigation into olive subsidies in Italy discovered that the EU was paying Italian olive growers for production on areas of land that amounted to twice the size of Italy. At least the uncertainty is now over on both sides. The Brexit side will take back it's sovereignty, stop paying in vast amounts of money and finally start accepting people into the country that the country wants and not just because they hold a EU passport. On the other side, Juncker will go ahead with his plans to have an EU Miltary force (with conscription?) and everyone will have an EU tax number - I wonder where that will lead. His presidential decree that negotiations cannot start until Article 50 is invoke is, I think, likely to be overturned in the courts and then the grown ups will be able to start talking openly. Not that talks aren't happening already it's just that they aren't telling him or the Press.
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Old Sep 17th 2016, 12:20 pm
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Default Re: Historic moment: EU Referendum

Originally Posted by Jon-Bxl
and yes the pound has fallen (helping our exports).
The only problem with that is it makes paying back the £4.8 trillion (and rising) national debt a tad more difficult.
The United Kingdom National Debt Clock 2016 Counter >> nationaldebtclock.co.uk
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