britishbull

Just read Place in the Sun Magazine, currency experts reckon the pound will end up somewhere between 1.18 and 1.28 Euro this year, the former more likely. Very unlikely we will get back to 1.40 and fifty-fifty on Greece leaving but the Euro will survive.

Personally I was hoping for something in the 1.30-1.40 range but you never know something really weird might happen to either Sterling or Euro or both.

bobd22

I would think the pound will probably dip on Thursday as it is expected they will commence QE again also possibly reduce interest rate even further? Although I have read that the experts doubt the interest rate will be reduced. Of course they is also speculation that ECB will reduce interest rate themselves and do their own covert QE. Will that balance out?
Thing is when you look at the trouble the Euro is in at the moment, has been for a while and predicted to stay in the doldrums, the pound is far from strong when it can't get above 1.25. I would think that range seems reasonable possibly a bit on the high side at the top end. Last thing the UK Government or Bank of England want is a strong pound.

Bri and Katee

You both overlook the euro has been held artifically high for the last 4 years, when commonsense said it should have devalued like the pound. As for sterling being low and in the doldrums, you just need to take a look at the bbc currency page....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/m...3/intraday.stm

The graph is set to euro because that is what I am interested in. But scan down the page to the list of currences. Today they are red (sterling losses) but for weeks now that has been green, ie sterling doing better than all those currencies listed. Reasons for it being red today? yep qe coming up this week, good old Merv the swerve talking it down to reduce the qe needed and of course the latest bank scandals.

But hit the 12 month button on the graph, no matter how bad the news each week or month, sterling takes a hit but then climbs back again.

So something is going the right way!

britishbull

maybe but if you look at a five year graph for sterling against most currencies it will make you weep

Bri and Katee

Well all I can say is when we bought 7 years ago exchange was 1.52€ to the £. We wept paying the mortgage when sterling almost reached parity in 07-08. So any move upward, albeit slowly but surely is a bonus to us and many more!

If it can reach somewhere close to a rate of 1.40€ by December 2013 when we have to pay off the outstanding loan on our home we'll be happy.

bobd22

I thought that hoping for just 1.20 when I paid our mortgage off at end of last year no chance!!! couldn't have been where it is now then could it. As for parity well i had a regular exchange set up at that time can't remember exact date but it was the very day that the £ hit it lowest against the Euro i got .97 Euro for my pound!!!!!!! it was at that point that A. I got very worried and B. I deeply regretted not fixing the rate at 1.37 I was offered just after taking out the mortgage, thinking it will go up and down. As for the Euro being kept artificially high well their interest was 0.5% higher than ours so I would say it was our government BOE saying Eurozone could take the strain. Be interesting to see what happens if we do QE and they also reduce their interest rates.

By the way blame all this financial crisis on me I'm sure it was me buying in Spain that caused as it went downhill rapidly from the point I did, along with my bank balance! lol

britishbull

Christ, that must have been frightening having a loan in Euro with Sterling seeming to be on a downward spiral. I merely ended up with all my cash in Sterling just after it crashed, no loans and ended up buying a house in Blighty with a hefty discount from its high point. Not the end of the world but not where I want to be. Sterling at £1.25 and Spanish property crashing on down isn't a bad place to be, I guess. History says that both property and currencies correct over time so have to sit back and enjoy what we can get out of it.

bobd22

It was frightening. I remember one day watching it start plummeting from around 1.25 next all in a day, next time i looked 1.23 then 1.20 then 1.18 I gave up looking then. Got that worried when I got that really bad exchange as I say it was bang on the very lowest but was pre set, I thought couple more centimos and I am well and truly up that smelly creak with no paddle. Luckily it has picked up and as you say they do tend to correct themselves. Only thing though a lot of things are happening these days that totally buck the trends of the past. Mind at least having paid it off I can now sleep on a night lol

bobd22

I see that since the BOE announced further QE at lunch time £ as strengthened slightly v Euro. Off course the ECB reduced interest rates, so it would seem that the money people prefer QE to interest rate cuts. In that case standby for Merving King to drop UK interest rate.

Lynn R

I got it wrong yet again as I transferred some money yesterday in the expectation that the pound would fall because of the additional QE. It didn't. Thank God I never tried a career as a currency dealer.

bobd22

Lynn just make an exchange about a week after me that should help as it always goes up after I have moved some money.

Lynn R

OK, just let me know when! I will do the same for you - maybe we can split the profit we make as a result! Mind you half of not a lot will be not a lot.

britishbull

You need to watch sterling against other currencies as well as the Euro so that you can see the happy point when Euro is falling and Sterling is rising against the other currencies as well not just the Euro

bobd22

Yes of course you are right re that point to actually asses the strength of the pound, both the pound and Euro fell yesterday re other currencies it was just that the Euro fell more than the pound. I am now in the nice situation of transferring by choice not need.

Domino

why should I worry about the Sterling to Malaysian Ringit rate when the only currencies we need to worry about are £ $ €