meseta

Personally I believe that to speak of 'Spain' in such general terms is a mistake. There are many areas and specific developments which are in demand. Of course there are areas which have a great deal of overbuilding, but if you do your homework and take your time regarding where to buy, there are still great opportunities in this lovely country.

It's also important, IMHO, to realise that many come here to live. As long as the property values don't drop, they will be content. Not everyone's sole purpose in life is to generate vast wealth from their homes !

Charles_Austin

Yeah, the thing is that if house prices go down in Madrid or Barcelona (as they surely will) everybody is gonna get very nervous and many people is gonna try to get rid of their "extra" properties to try to sell them when the prices are still good. This will flood the market and the excess in demand will make the prices go down everywhere.

I am not saying this. This has been printed on the pages of "The economist" quite a few times.

coralsoft

Google:
- We are 4º consuming of cement of the world
- In Spain the house is already more face than in Germany and Japan, paises where a currito badly paid cobra not less than 1200 and 1500 euros/mes respectively
- That being the Spaniards 9% of the population of the zone euro we have 25% of the hypothecating debt of the same zone
- the families saves at the same level that in 1965 and the companies of refinanciación has found in Spain his the particular Gilded one (even there is people which it requests credits to pay other credits, said in Intereconom?*a Radio the other night)
- 33% of the new work of 2004 of Madrid still TODAY it is without selling
- the practice mayor?*a of the baby-boom already is placed - were constructed to the last year 800,000 houses in this pa?*s. More than FRANCE, GERMANY and ENGLAND JUNTAS(!!!!!!!)
- the foreign investment in Spain is ca?*do a 98% in a year (and it continues falling) - We are pa?*s of the zone euro with greater inflation (with one cé, so that they do not get upset talibanes lingü?*sticos) and the BCE is on the verge of raising the types.
- paises Are historical precendentes of slopes of house in others at the moment (the U.S.A., England and Australia) and do some time (Germany and Japan). Some more forts than others, but LOWERED. In some zones of Spain ALREADY THEY BEGIN TO NOTICE the SLOPES, no matter how much they call "smooth corrections" and things ace * in means.

Interpret that how you will.
1 We are 4th largest consumer of cement of the world
2 In Spain the house is already more expensive than in Germany and Japan, countries where a currito badly paid cobra not less than 1200 and 1500 euros/month respectively
3 The Spanish are 9% of the population of the euro zone and have 25% of the mortgage debt of the same zone
4 Families save at the same level as in 1965 and the refinance companies have found their gold mine in Spain (there are even people who request credit to pay other debts, said in Intereconom Radio the other night)
5 33% of the new work of 2004 of Madrid is still unsold TODAY
6 the peak of the baby-boom has already hit the market
7 800,000 dwellings were constructed in the last year in in this country. More than FRANCE, GERMANY and ENGLAND together !!!!!!!
8 the foreign investment in Spain has fallen (?) 98% in a year (and it continues falling)
9 We are the euro zone country with greatest inflation and the BCE is on the verge of raising the rates.
10 There are historical precendentes of falls in house prices in other countries at the moment (the U.S.A., England and Australia) and for some time (Germany and Japan). Some stronger than others, but LOWERED. In some zones of Spain THEY BEGIN TO NOTICE THE FALLS ALREADY, no matter how much they call them "smooth corrections" and things ??? in the media.

Some of these I've seen elsewhere (6, 7, 8, 10), some seem acceptable (1, 2, 4, 5, 9). Whilst 3 may be true of the Euro zone, Spain's mortgage debt must pale considerable in comparison with the UK's, unless the statistic includes mortgage debt covering 2nd home purchases from foreigners in UK, Germany & other European countries.

Certainly some of the Spanish markets will be affected by economic and property market conditions in the countries from where a lot of foreign buyers come. This is already probably the case on many of the Costas, where massive building supply has met falls in demand because the UK market has run out of steam - there are fewer potential buyers with remortgaging potential in the UK and prices have ceased rocketing, if not fallen, in many of the market-leading areas.

I have heard tell that Madrid prices have never fallen in the past, but in these modern times of interdependency between countries and increased financial sophistication, it may be that Spanish markets follow the UK model more closely than former market Spanish behaviours. The UK market may not have fallen as noticeably as in the 89/92 crash (yet), but that slowness is explicable by the increased amount of funding available to feed the rise, greater buyer sophistication, particularly in buying extra rental property and other factors. There's been nothing to stop sentiment taking the market higher.

Likewise, if sentiment in Spain can be kept positive overall, then it may be that the market can be kept high, even if it does not continue higher. Market prices are only ever determined by the small number of properties changing hands at any point in time. If the number of properties in the market drops because sellers are withdrawing in the face of being unable to find buyers, but some buyers can be found to purchase around current prices, then it may be that prices do not actually drop.

bourgogne

i am sorry if this is a repeat of previous msgs.

yes spain is expensive, built to spanish standards, as indeed french houses are..... slow crap and shoddy. I think england had better standards in the 1930's.??

however prices in the UK will go bang real soon, government will ensure that.

i only know about france and spain prices, france is a bit more affordable but way too high for any average earner to buy ANYTHING. this is worse in spain.

however if you were lucky enough to 'cash-in' on the UK prices 2003-5 and bailed out, bought a place outright, really who cares if both spain and france are mentioning a pending burst of the bubble?? its all relative to be honest.

qaulity of life and wonderful country cannot have a price.

nostagia of everyday on the A45 gambling with death on the roads. the vandelism, the 'youths' the general decay that its hard to miss in every city or town. having an accident and being told to get a cab to the hospital as you are over 60! you'd have to drag me back in a body bag!

Charles_Austin

Well I don´t know...isn´t violence going up in Spain too?

coralsoft

No it's not.

And I'll fight anyone that reckons it is.




I'd hazard a guess that we're returning generally to more violent times. The communities that used to know each other and deal with problems internally until fairly recently in many places have grown beyond the abilities of their members to recognise everyone, have become rapidly diverse, intermingled and spread. Take away the restraint of former class-ridden times, the spread of the idea that each individual's personal feelings are the most important thing in the world and are to be satiated. The result is millions of people who have no sense of responsibility, empathy with others nor self-restraint. Depersonalised from the people around us, the slightest event is enough to trigger violence that seems random and disproportionate to everyone else.

In former times, people in a community knew who was violent and it was dealt with by a gang of community members who taught them their place, or everyone knew to steer clear. Nowadays you can be in hospital before you get a clue and the legal system is rarely able to help.

I'd hazard a guess that Spain is merely catching up as people move around the country into concentrated urban areas over the past 50 years in the same way they have in the rest of Europe over the past 100. With its history of control under Franco, and a tendency for a large informal security presence, the deterioration has been slowed, I think.

ivanmax

Jesus...do you really live in Madrid?

In case you haven´t noticed the increase in violence please ask anybody who has lived there during the las 20 or so years. Ten years ago it was a very rare thing when somebody got stabbed, mugged or shot. Nowadays the Spanish police gets more crime reports than ever. Don´t you believe it? Go to the nearest police station and ask them.

And that without taking into account the Rumanian Mobs or the new latin gangs. Have you heard of the Latin Kings or the Nietas? Well if you haven´t you don´t live in Madrid because they are becoming a big problem for the Spanish police and people is starting to be afraid of going out. By the way I was robbed 200 euros a few months ago in the tube. A nice guy cut my trousers and took out the money.

Please be a bit more realistic.

Spanishliferules

Rumanian Mobs?

Ivanmax?

Seems from where I am looking with that name you must be one of them!

ivanmax

Sorry to dissapoint you but I am a pro photographer and I was born in Spain and lived there until I was 22 and went to England to take my degree.

If any of you want proof of my identity send me a mail to

[email protected]

and I will give you the URL to my website. I don´t put the URL here because I would start getting anonimous calls from nasty Spanish Estate agents (it wouldn´t be the first time).

And finally, I´m living in Spain at the moment and I can tell you that violence has gone up as much as house prices.

ivanmax

By the way "Meseta"...What Estate agent do you work for?

meseta

Why ?

meseta

also.............


"and I will give you the URL to my website. I don´t put the URL here because I would start getting anonimous calls from nasty Spanish Estate agents (it wouldn´t be the first time). "

What have you done to have these concerns ?

bourgogne

oh come on STEVENAGE or costa del sol???????


sorry WAKE UP and sod off uk................... simple

coralsoft

ivanmax,
Were you replying to me? If so, I think your rant was misdirected, since I was not saying there hadn't been an increase in violence, but providing a possible socio-psychological explanation for it. If you only read the first 2 lines, you need to appreciate that they were a joke, rather than a denial of violence increasing.

I rarely get into Madrid centre (Pza Sta Ana area) in the evenings, and almost never into the lively non-central areas. So I wouldn't say my experience is typical of ex-pats living 'in town'. We are within the city limits of Madrid, but not really in Madrid, so whilst there's some youthful exuberance from boredom, it's way too quite for random violence. I've not heard of much crime here, either, though I've no doubt that Madrid is, as we appear to agree, getting worse.

meseta

bourgogne


"sorry WAKE UP and sod off uk................... simple"

What on earth does that mean ?