Countryboy1

I appreciate this is a bit of a hypothetical/theoretical point, but I heard an item on the radio this morning that got me thinking (always a novelty!).
There was a scientist talking about climate change and he was predicting that in 50 years Scotland may have the climate of Madeira.
Now whether or not you believe in the concept of the man-made causation of climate change or even whether such change is real or not, IF such a prediction comes to pass, then many northern European countries, such as the UK, may have climates similar or close to that currently experienced in some southern countries. Focusing on Spain as an example, I wonder what the effects will be on its economy? Will many northern Europeans wish to holiday or retire to a climate which is similar to that to be found at home? If the temperatures of southern European countries rise considerably from their present averages, will many people wish to come and endure those extreme conditions? If far fewer numbers, the tourist economies will be severely hit, there will be sharp reductions in housing needs for holidays or permanent residence, affecting new building and the value of existing properties.
Those countries which currently rely substantially on their climate for their economies may face serious problems.
Of course this may be balanced to some degree by many who wish to holiday or live in another country NOT for the climate but for other reasons such as the environment and culture etc.
Just a thought though!

cricketman

The so-called scientist was talking rubbish. The latest models show that countries like Britain would get much wetter and perhaps even milder in winter. Just a 4c rise in temperature would also put most of Britain under water due to the ice caps melting, so it would never get a climate like Madeira, or it would but Britain would be the size of the peak district or Snowdonia!

Spain would get drier, certainly the lower half - and the fires seen this summer would be more frequent. Some coastal areas may be flooded

Anyway, if any of the above happened (which I think it will within 100-200 years) then the economy would be the least of our worries.

Countryboy1

I did precede much of what I said with IF, repeat IF it's to be believed. I'm a sceptic, but that was not my point. It was just to provoke thought and discussion about what COULD be the consequences. I didn't want this to descend into a "it's all rubbish" - "no it's not" debate!!
To return to your reference to fires and flooding risks. These alone may affect the Spanish economy, deterring many from visiting and living here. Fewer visitors and people wishing to live here will have a marked effect upon property values.

cricketman

Yes sure, but the consequences are much worse than that

As I said, Britain would completely disappear underwater and hundreds of millions of people in Africa and the subcontinenet would starve to death, so its a case of what happens first...

My only hope is that the current problems with the economy lead to an urgent rethink about the consumerist economy. But even then, it may be too late

Garbatellamike

:r ofl:

Garbatellamike

what unadulterated twaddle

jimenato

IF climate change has the decribed effects, where we go on holiday will be the least of our concerns...

cricketman

Some links for you

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environmen...4c-temperature

http://www.climatecodered.org/2011/0...tion-trap.html

http://natgeotv.com/uk/six_degrees/about

Now I've looked at these links, Britain would start to go under water at 4c, but it may take until 6c for the majority to be underwater

However, with a 4c increase the earth would probably only be liveable for 1 billion humans, not the 6 billion we currently have

Garbatellamike

thanks but I refer you to my earlier answer

cricketman

Yep, you know better. Why not read some respected scientific journals? Nature is a good one to start with and can be understood by a moderately intelligent person

Garbatellamike

Thank you I do quite often. If you really believe the twaddle you typed above then only one of us is moderately intelligent and the other..................

jojojojojo

The climate changes all the time, we've had 500 ice ages and their related warmings afterwards.... Since the world started its had big changes, little changes, long changes, short changes. The only thing that is certain is that man and his computer model cant predict any of them. so all a big waste of time, money and thought.

so my answer to the OPs comment would be "if my auntie had b****, she'd be my uncle!"

Jo xxx

rugbymatt

If Britain as a country disappears under water then its fair to say vast chunks of the rest of the world will be gone as well. A good percentage of Britain is over 1000 feet so if the water levels raise to that height we can say good by to most of Europe, the majority of the Eastern seaboard of America, much of India and god knows how much more of the planet!

cricketman

Yep, but humans werent around then Jo. Their expansion into Europe came with the ending of the last ice age

Pocaloca

Absolutely!

Spain has to cash in on its renewable energy potential from wind and sunshine, and sell its surplus electricity to other European countries.

All those redundant CDS golf courses and hotels can be turned into solar farms!