davidinspain

My point was a fairly simple one,the pound has dropped alarmingly before yet didn't prompt a mass exodus.Not too complex?

Johncarzx

There is no mass exodus. It's just another made up media story.


Euro Weekly News

bobd22

No it's not complex Dave but point is back in 2008 / 12 last time it dropped lower than now it is a fact that some (not an Exodus ) did bail out. Everyone's situation and reasoning is different.

bobd22

Let's look back to 2008 an article from then by the Guardian attached. My actual view on the article that prompted this thread is similar to John's but rather than it being totally fake it is a gross exaggeration currently. Should there be no brexit deal and £ fell to parity or below for any length of time then who knows. I honestly believe there will have to be some sort of brexit deal done and if so many "financial experts predict £ to strengthen dramatically" so it may simply be a downturn that the majority can ride out, let's hope so.

​​​​​​​https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...pain.property1

amideislas

This paper, along with our local English newspaper "Mallorca daily bulletin" do indeed subscribe to the age old English tradition of sensationalism. It helps to substantually increase circulation, which in turn facilitates higher ad placement prices.

having said that, from my perspective, and comparing to just a few years ago, the occurrence of hearing British accents amongst the tourist crowd has most certainly declined. There's always been a dominance of Germans here, and that certainly hasn't diminished, but I meet far more French, Dutch, Swedish, Norwegian, Polish, Czech, and other Europeans than ever before.

​​​​Interestingly, I also hear more north American accents than ever before, as well as many central and south Americans; Brazilians, Chileans, Argentinians, etc.

And statistically (according to our local red top), it seems there has indeed been an 8% drop in British tourism here. But that is offset a bit by the 18% increase from continental Europe and north America.

Much of the world, it appears, is enjoying a bit of an economic boom at present. Let's hope the isolationists don't screw that up too badly.

Stillgame

The gospel according to Mystic Majorca Meg from TIO.

amcinfrance

Lots of French have Spanish ancestry; their grandparents came to France in the 30's to escape the civil war, and loads were encouraged to come after the 1st world war because of the need for labour in France. That said Spain looks more attractive than France, cost of living is probably less, housing is less expensive, and the way of life appears to be far better. Macron is not liked, and the FN are gaining strength. Our village had an FN majority! The days of French villages having a restaurant etc have long gone so it makes perfect sense to return to the land their ancestors came from. The only problem is trying to sell a house in France but lots of people rent so not alway a problem.

spainrico

Interesting stuff, thanks.

Yes I knew a lot of Spanish fled Spain to France in 1939 at the end of the Civil war so yes that helps explain the influx of French being here.

Loafing Along

Does everyone come back if sterling gets stronger ?

bobd22

​​​​​​​I can't see that reasoning ? Strong pound more Euros in your pocket so unless it's for other reasons i.e health , age homesick or don't like life in Spain I would doubt it.

Loafing Along

Apologies should have been more precise - Does everyone come back to Spain if the pound gets stronger

bobd22

Got you now , I doubt it. I suppose once one realises that their finances are on a knife edge they may well decide "once bitten , twice shy". Although as many come and go from Spain to UK and vice versa for many reasons, they may return if aproblem resolves itself. Actually I would imagine concern for some currently will be weak pound and uncertainty with brexit and how to cope with unknowns if no deal. lets just hope there is a deal and those uncertainty's diminish and pound strengthens a bit.

Jon-Bxl

I think the majority of people will be really glad that the UK didn't take the Euro. Both Remainers and Leavers. (Even though at the time there were dire predictions on staying with the pound - doom and gloom. (Where have I heard all that before!).

As a result of staying with Sterling, we took a step away from Europe. We agreed the ERM ( Exchange rate mechanism) tying the pound to the Euro.. Then the real calamity hit and I remember huge interest rates and my mortgage became unpayable. I could have lost my home! That's 'doom and gloom' in reality! So we took the step move a tad further away from the EU and came out of the ERM. This meant that exchange rates were then fully variable.

Long before the referendum when I came to Spain the rates were around 1.45. The word Brexit didn't exist
Long before the referendum the rates dropped to near parity I personally remember it being 1.023. The word Brexit didn't exist

So even inside the EU (with no plans to leave - well before any referendum) we have seen huge swings in the rate. At that time of 1.02 rates, French brandy and champers were kept at about the same sterling price, for marketing reasons. So we loaded up and bought both in the UK to bring back to the continent - and in fact France!! The UK 'booze runs' to the continent stopped.

I don't think people should be leaving their homes for this reason. I understand some people have other concerns about Brexit, but FX should not be the reason to uproot families and move to another country, IMO. Even with this current uncertainty the rates haven't touched that parity that we experienced, long before Brexit.

Putting Brexit aside the rates have moved a LOT in the period of our membership... so this is a factual and experiential lesson from the past. If the referendum never happened, the rates would still be variable, and no guarantee that they wouldn't once again drop to the parity levels of the past.

Jon

PS like many on the thread, I don't believe that the headline is true

bobd22

Had the UK gone into the Euro I don't believe that there would have been a referendum. I say that because we would simply have been too entwined to get out. Just looking how complex breaking away now is without having to reinstate our own currency I think would have made it just too difficult. Without doubt part of the reasoning behind having common currency.
John I too remember both times you mention coming out of the ERM and the low £ Euro rate. As you say it was difficult both times if one had a mortgage. Unfortunately when we bought in Spain we had a mortgage for first 2 1/2 years. Within 8 months £ nosedived. In fact as you say it fell to around 1.02. My exchange to pay the mortgage was setup monthly I was offered not long after buying to set a rate but thought it will simply go up and down as always so I declned. One of my exchanges occurred automatically on the very day it hit it's lowest I seem to remember I actually got 0.98 for my pound. It certainly focussed my vision as when we bought we had got 1.43. Our mortgage was small but it certainly made a huge difference. Luckily it recovered to around 1.15 when I paid off the mortgage 18 months or so later. To be honest in those turbulent days of huge falls in exchange rate I remember every day watching it fall and fall thinking I wish we were in the Euro at least I would know what I was paying. In reality you are correct not being in the Euro is a good thing for the UK as a Nation, but at times like that unfortunately one thinks of their own situation. It is all part of life but something that certainly if anyone buys with a Euro mortgage MUST consider . Like yourself I do not believe this headline but for some the exchange rate will have dire affects of their ability to enjoy their life in Spain. Hopefully some sort of deal will be done and sterling will gain from that, I suppose it depends on individuals situations as to whether they can deal with the situation. On the plus side it has not gone as low as it did last time or indeed as predicted. Also this fall as a result of the referendum is from a lower starting point.
It is important for people buying (there has been a lot of recent posts re buying) take into account how much the exchange rate can affect both their purchase and mental well being. being.

Stillgame

I agree with your opening line. I also think that the EU would have shown more flexibility if they hadn't been convinced that the UK would overwhelmingly vote Remain - we can thank Cameron for that.
I am convinced that along with a common currency, the underlying reason behind Freedom Of Movement was also a clever ploy by the EU to water down the sovereignty of individual countries. I have yet to hear a compelling argument why FOM has to be so closely entwined with Free Trade, apart from an ideology.
The EU is a powerful and formidable organisation. It's rule book is primarily designed for it's own self preservation. It would probably take 5 years plus for a country to cleanly break from the EU and start to grow its economy again. It will be miracle if the UK succeeds - too many enemies within, apart from the EU itself.