British Expats

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-   -   Brits Going Home (https://britishexpats.com/forum/spain-75/brits-going-home-910094/)

Loafing Along Mar 7th 2018 8:47 am

Brits Going Home
 
Interesting analysis in "El Pais" today - according to official statistics the British population in Spain has fallen by 40% over the last five years from about 400,000 to 240,000.

Explanations include more effective management of the Padron which shows many people may have left several years ago or may have died without any official notification. ALSO comment on weakness of sterling and the uncertainty surrounding BREXit

EMR Mar 7th 2018 9:42 am

Re: Brits Going Home
 

Originally Posted by Loafing Along (Post 12457772)
Interesting analysis in "El Pais" today - according to official statistics the British population in Spain has fallen by 40% over the last five years from about 400,000 to 240,000.

Explanations include more effective management of the Padron which shows many people may have left several years ago or may have died without any official notification. ALSO comment on weakness of sterling and the uncertainty surrounding BREXit

With sterling continuing to fall anyone relying on pensions and fixed incomes will certainly be feeling the pinch.
We are seeing the same in Portugal where Brits have gone from first to third place as foreign buyers of property.

lurchio Mar 7th 2018 10:39 am

Re: Brits Going Home
 
And, with respect, those who have lived 'under the radar' for years and may now be feeling the pressure a bit ahead of Brexit and isolation from Blighty, and loss of free movement at some stage. In my area the buyers have shifted from UK to French, Dutch, Belgians and some Germans. Still all going along here though, what a surprise!

Loafing Along Mar 7th 2018 10:43 am

Re: Brits Going Home
 

Originally Posted by lurchio (Post 12457834)
And, with respect, those who have lived 'under the radar' for years and may now be feeling the pressure a bit ahead of Brexit and isolation from Blighty, and loss of free movement at some stage. In my area the buyers have shifted from UK to French, Dutch, Belgians and some Germans. Still all going along here though, what a surprise!

THe curious thing for me was that as the Town Halls improve their control of the Padron instead of showing up more residents ( the "Under the radar" folks ) it has shown there are actually less.
As you know Town Hall revenues benefit from the registration so must be a bit of a blow for several municipalities.

lurchio Mar 7th 2018 11:29 am

Re: Brits Going Home
 

Originally Posted by Loafing Along (Post 12457838)
THe curious thing for me was that as the Town Halls improve their control of the Padron instead of showing up more residents ( the "Under the radar" folks ) it has shown there are actually less.
As you know Town Hall revenues benefit from the registration so must be a bit of a blow for several municipalities.

Good point, but lots of people never signed on the Padron anyway.....

bobd22 Mar 7th 2018 11:31 am

Re: Brits Going Home
 
Surely it will be down to both Brexit and weak £. It would be interesting to see how many left last time £ was under similar if not more pressure, certainly I noticed far less Brits around 2008 - 2013. I also notice how numbers picked up with the strength of £. Very difficult to choose which way to go re Brexit and not having much of a clue what will be end result. So I am not surprised, be interesting to also compare with other EU countries

Retired in Euskadi Mar 7th 2018 12:19 pm

Re: Brits Going Home
 

Originally Posted by Loafing Along (Post 12457838)
THe curious thing for me was that as the Town Halls improve their control of the Padron instead of showing up more residents ( the "Under the radar" folks ) it has shown there are actually less.
As you know Town Hall revenues benefit from the registration so must be a bit of a blow for several municipalities.

True, but it begs the question why didn't they sign up to be 'empadronado'?
Not because 'they didn't know', surely?

dougal03 Mar 7th 2018 12:33 pm

Re: Brits Going Home
 
Maybe it's because of the company I keep but loads seem to have died off!

Cape Blue Mar 7th 2018 1:00 pm

Re: Brits Going Home
 
1 Attachment(s)

Originally Posted by bobd22 (Post 12457861)
Surely it will be down to both Brexit and weak £. It would be interesting to see how many left last time £ was under similar if not more pressure, certainly I noticed far less Brits around 2008 - 2013. I also notice how numbers picked up with the strength of £. Very difficult to choose which way to go re Brexit and not having much of a clue what will be end result. So I am not surprised, be interesting to also compare with other EU countries

If we look at the sterling to euro Fx over the past ten years, the Fx has been around the current rate for all or parts of 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013.

XE: GBP / EUR Currency Chart. British Pound to Euro Rates

I can see numbers picking up when there is a strengthening of sterling due to the capital benefit for buying in euroland, not so sure about people leaving due to weakened pensions so much as that requires selling up etc or for those from 2009-2013 the rate is about the same as when they moved.

EMR Mar 7th 2018 1:22 pm

Re: Brits Going Home
 

Originally Posted by Cape Blue (Post 12457931)
If we look at the sterling to euro Fx over the past ten years, the Fx has been around the current rate for all or parts of 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013.

XE: GBP / EUR Currency Chart. British Pound to Euro Rates

I can see numbers picking up when there is a strengthening of sterling due to the capital benefit for buying in euroland, not so sure about people leaving due to weakened pensions so much as that requires selling up etc or for those from 2009-2013 the rate is about the same as when they moved.

If you moved when the pounds was much higher the cost of property and day to day living was significantly lower.
Add inflation and the fall in sterling if you are on a fixed income life is now more expensive.
When you come to sell with the additional benefit of higher prices converting your euros back into sterling should hopefully help to cover the rise in UK property prices.
I doubt that anyone looks back to 2013 but make their decisions based on their current circumstances.
It's a good time to sell if life in the sun is not for you.

bobd22 Mar 7th 2018 1:48 pm

Re: Brits Going Home
 
Maybe they didn't sell up but moved back to property they had retained in uk. Maybe they tried to sell but couldn't, i certainly know of properties that have been on Spanish market over 10 years. All i am saying is when £ was low back then and lower than today, there were noticeably less Brits around.

bobd22 Mar 7th 2018 1:49 pm

Re: Brits Going Home
 

Originally Posted by dougal03 (Post 12457914)
Maybe it's because of the company I keep but loads seem to have died off!

There is that as well!

Bridie55 Mar 7th 2018 5:03 pm

Re: Brits Going Home
 
Well I know I'll be bitched at by the few But we have some new friends in Almunecar who have moved, no going back from America and they love it been here for 6 month's. They are so better off and are renting but have no intention or want to go back. Their health insurance is half of USA. Rents are so cheap.They can't wait to go to other parts of Europe cheap flights so for some it can work but they do have other family here. So it can work for some and I love their enthusiasm even after a bad winter they still love it!

lurchio Mar 7th 2018 5:32 pm

Re: Brits Going Home
 
Where theres a true will, there is ALWAYS a way.Glad they are settled, with the right positive 'can do' attitude and a bit of 'daring do' they will find this a wonderful Country.

amideislas Mar 7th 2018 7:46 pm

Re: Brits Going Home
 
Probably a little off-topic, but perhaps related, I heard on the radio today that tourist bookings here are up 26% over last year (a record year, by the way), but there's been an 8% drop in British bookings.

I reckon that's largely due to the exchange rate. If you look at travel forums like TripAdvisor, many Brits are moaning about how Mallorca has "raised its prices". Although the prices seem to be about the same as before.

And then there's also the new enforcement programme for illegal apartment lets (large fines etc.), which has put a dent in the availability of cheap holiday apartments. British expats who own apartments here are moaning about that too. Calling it "unfair" because they can no longer let their apartment without a licence or paying tax. Many are selling up. But they were never resident in the first place, so it's not as if they're "moving back". But it would be included in the stats, I reckon.


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