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Search: Posts Made By: Miss Ann Thrope
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Forum: Middle East
May 26th 2020, 10:01 am
Replies: 21
Views: 2,126
Posted By Miss Ann Thrope

Re: On line baggage label, why not?

And they need to know the weight - the biggest issue on many flights: not just people trying to carry as much luggage as possible but also to ensure the fuel is adequate for the payload. And they...
Forum: Middle East
May 22nd 2020, 6:34 pm
Replies: 445
Views: 55,892
Posted By Miss Ann Thrope

Re: Lockdown

The breakdown is in the ONS data if you dig - something to keep you occupied over your solitary Eid!
Forum: The Sand Pit
May 21st 2020, 2:19 pm
Replies: 5
Eid
Views: 1,024
Posted By Miss Ann Thrope

Re: Eid

This will be the 15th Eid that I have been with my Omani partner (jeeeeezus....) and the first that we will actually spend together as he is stuck here in the UK, where it will be just another...
Forum: Middle East
May 21st 2020, 2:06 pm
Replies: 445
Views: 55,892
Posted By Miss Ann Thrope

Re: Lockdown

Sweden's death rate is at least 6 times higher than any of its immediate neighbours. Worse in some cases. That's not emotional, that's data. Denmark, Finland and Norway are all also export-led...
Forum: Middle East
May 21st 2020, 2:00 pm
Replies: 445
Views: 55,892
Posted By Miss Ann Thrope

Re: Lockdown

Sorry, just for the record, the most egregious error versus the ONS numbers was in the proportion of deaths that you attributed to care homes.
Forum: Middle East
May 21st 2020, 11:43 am
Replies: 445
Views: 55,892
Posted By Miss Ann Thrope

Re: Lockdown

There is a live example: Sweden versus its immediate neighbours. Of course it's foolish to extrapolate from a single data point but this one available example very much contradicts the economic...
Forum: Middle East
May 19th 2020, 1:52 pm
Replies: 445
Views: 55,892
Posted By Miss Ann Thrope

Re: Lockdown

Not sure where you got that breakdown as it's completely wrong, aside from the awful arithmetic.

And surprise, surprise, as thoughtful observers have been anticipating, it turns out that the...
Forum: Middle East
Apr 13th 2020, 9:56 am
Replies: 445
Views: 55,892
Posted By Miss Ann Thrope

Re: Lockdown

Good luck mate. Something tells me you'll land on your feet whatever way it goes. Surely BritishExpats owes you a tidy sum for keeping the ME forum going singlehandedly for the last 5 or 6 years...
Forum: Middle East
Apr 13th 2020, 9:52 am
Replies: 445
Views: 55,892
Posted By Miss Ann Thrope

Re: Lockdown

It's a good article thanks and confirms that the case for social controls is irrefutable. As it says, far more cogently than I could manage (my emphasis):

"Nevertheless, the gap between what...
Forum: Middle East
Apr 8th 2020, 11:33 pm
Replies: 445
Views: 55,892
Posted By Miss Ann Thrope

Re: Lockdown

Right, this argument about models is going nowhere. On the larger point, I struggle to believe that you could reasonably be arguing that social controls were not necessary given where we are. I agree...
Forum: Middle East
Apr 8th 2020, 4:32 pm
Replies: 445
Views: 55,892
Posted By Miss Ann Thrope

Re: Lockdown

Again, I am not saying any MODEL is conservative. The confidence interval will be for the described outcome based on the assumptions used. Most decent models, including all those you mention, can be...
Forum: The Sand Pit
Apr 8th 2020, 11:49 am
Replies: 32
Views: 3,739
Posted By Miss Ann Thrope

Re: Corona Skills

Well I do like to multi-task. And we should all be familiarising ourselves with epidemic science - it's our future! But I really didn't think anybody - least of all you - read my lengthy posts.
Forum: The Sand Pit
Apr 8th 2020, 9:57 am
Replies: 32
Views: 3,739
Posted By Miss Ann Thrope

Re: Corona Skills

Think it would scare away foxes?
Forum: The Sand Pit
Apr 8th 2020, 9:56 am
Replies: 32
Views: 3,739
Posted By Miss Ann Thrope

Re: Corona Skills

I'm doing Arabic on the same app - still on the free version of course! Original intent was just to be able to read road signs etc but I'm a bit deeper in now. Other half is doing French. Which is...
Forum: Middle East
Apr 7th 2020, 10:24 pm
Replies: 445
Views: 55,892
Posted By Miss Ann Thrope

Re: Lockdown

As we all know (presumably), modelling an epidemic relies on a set of assumptions much like any other mathematical model. Most useful models will allow for a range of assumptions to be tested, for...
Forum: Middle East
Apr 6th 2020, 2:17 pm
Replies: 445
Views: 55,892
Posted By Miss Ann Thrope

Re: Lockdown

Without controls, health services will be swamped so that hundreds of thousands - likely millions - more people globally will die, of all sorts of things, than would have otherwise died. And a huge...
Forum: Middle East
Apr 6th 2020, 1:37 pm
Replies: 445
Views: 55,892
Posted By Miss Ann Thrope

Re: Lockdown

Brilliantly put: this is the point.
Forum: Middle East
Apr 6th 2020, 1:32 pm
Replies: 445
Views: 55,892
Posted By Miss Ann Thrope

Re: Lockdown

If you are going to look at deaths, then the relevant measure in terms of capacity to cope is the daily rate. Covid-19 daily deaths are already far in excess of that from car crashes in most of the...
Forum: Middle East
Apr 6th 2020, 12:28 pm
Replies: 445
Views: 55,892
Posted By Miss Ann Thrope

Re: Lockdown

But it seems to me that the point that you are missing is that this "cure" is to avoid something far far worse than we are currently experiencing. It's only because of the social curbs that we have...
Forum: The Sand Pit
Apr 4th 2020, 6:30 pm
Replies: 17
Views: 3,181
Posted By Miss Ann Thrope

Re: Salary & Job changes

Except that if you do get it, you're almost certain to transmit it to at least two others before you even realise you have it, thus perpetuating the epidemic. You do realise that "herd immunity" is...
Forum: The Sand Pit
Apr 1st 2020, 10:49 am
Replies: 17
Views: 3,181
Posted By Miss Ann Thrope

Re: Salary & Job changes

Just because I love fact checking you and thrills are extremely hard to come by at the moment.... Having moved to the UK from Dubai in the last 18 months, I would observe the following.

Food in...
Forum: Middle East
Mar 24th 2020, 10:49 am
Replies: 455
Views: 41,632
Posted By Miss Ann Thrope

Re: Covid 19

Thought you'd be fully occupied on the Fashion Model Kuwait thread.... You really must be busy or Mrs M still sat close by?
Forum: Middle East
Mar 24th 2020, 10:36 am
Replies: 455
Views: 41,632
Posted By Miss Ann Thrope

Re: Covid 19

It's not just about the health service being overwhelmed, though that is the biggest issue. But if huge numbers of people are sick, then the workforce for critical jobs will be severely depleted....
Forum: Middle East
Mar 23rd 2020, 11:06 am
Replies: 455
Views: 41,632
Posted By Miss Ann Thrope

Re: Covid 19

I agree with almost everything you say. I have never argued specifically for lockdowns, just containment. But the reality now is that most western governments did not act swiftly and decisively...
Forum: Middle East
Mar 23rd 2020, 10:19 am
Replies: 455
Views: 41,632
Posted By Miss Ann Thrope

Re: Covid 19

You need to think it through a bit more I'm afraid. Without severe containment, you will get almost half of the population sick at one time: ALL the expert epidemiological models predict at least...
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