What's your theory?
Mar 16th 2014, 10:37 pm
#46
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Re: What's your theory?
a colleague's wife and kids were onboard, can't begin to think what he's going through
Mar 17th 2014, 4:27 am
#47
**** it we'll do it live
Joined: Oct 2004
Location: Dubai
Posts: 7,892
Re: What's your theory?
Two types of radar Primary - just gives you a 'blip'. Secondary triggers a box on the aircraft (transponder) which returns a code (which the ATC system translates into the callsign on the radar screen) and the height (or altitude or Flight Level depending on the pressure setting) plus a load of other data but those are the main two bits of data.
With this flight we have very little hard facts.
We know that the transponder was switched off just after the aircraft acknowledged the call from Malaysian ATC to switch to Korea. So it could only be tracked by primary radar (which isn't accurate on telling you a height unless you also use a height finder).
The ADS-B squitter was also switched off (ADS-B transmits the aircraft's position plus some other data. Used in australia for remote areas where there is no radar coverage (most of Oz) and by geeks tracking flights but not all aircraft have them, in Europe equipage is about 90%.
The ACARS was switched off about 13 minutes prior to the transponder being switched off. ACARS transmits a host of data to the airline ops, like fuel usage by each engine, temperature, etc. What wasn't switched off was the type of ACARS Boeing has being sent by the engines to them. But Malasia didn't pay for that option so the transmitter only tried making contact, not sending data.
The facts we know are that all 4 'transmission' devices were switched off. No one has heard or seen anything since, nothing from any of the pax or crew mobile phones. No pictures taken by curious people of this mysterious plane etc.
So my theory is that a government somewhere has orchestrated this and the aircraft is on the ground somewhere. Because pilots do not generally commit suicide and this thing is too big and heavy to land anywhere but on a BIG runway. Somewhere remote so that there is no mobile signal and few people to see it.
Why? I think that there was something on it that this government wanted and now it's got it then the people and plane must remain hidden so no one discovers which country took whatever it was.
My take anyway.
With this flight we have very little hard facts.
We know that the transponder was switched off just after the aircraft acknowledged the call from Malaysian ATC to switch to Korea. So it could only be tracked by primary radar (which isn't accurate on telling you a height unless you also use a height finder).
The ADS-B squitter was also switched off (ADS-B transmits the aircraft's position plus some other data. Used in australia for remote areas where there is no radar coverage (most of Oz) and by geeks tracking flights but not all aircraft have them, in Europe equipage is about 90%.
The ACARS was switched off about 13 minutes prior to the transponder being switched off. ACARS transmits a host of data to the airline ops, like fuel usage by each engine, temperature, etc. What wasn't switched off was the type of ACARS Boeing has being sent by the engines to them. But Malasia didn't pay for that option so the transmitter only tried making contact, not sending data.
The facts we know are that all 4 'transmission' devices were switched off. No one has heard or seen anything since, nothing from any of the pax or crew mobile phones. No pictures taken by curious people of this mysterious plane etc.
So my theory is that a government somewhere has orchestrated this and the aircraft is on the ground somewhere. Because pilots do not generally commit suicide and this thing is too big and heavy to land anywhere but on a BIG runway. Somewhere remote so that there is no mobile signal and few people to see it.
Why? I think that there was something on it that this government wanted and now it's got it then the people and plane must remain hidden so no one discovers which country took whatever it was.
My take anyway.
Mar 17th 2014, 4:34 am
#48
**** it we'll do it live
Joined: Oct 2004
Location: Dubai
Posts: 7,892
Re: What's your theory?
Not at all, they could range from causing little harm beyond mass panic to mass casualties. They are very real and a very genuine risk. Thankfully your average terrorist isn't sophisticated enough to obtain the materials and then build one and those that are good enough generally live where they can't get the materials at all. However if you are at the hijacking a plane and vanishing it completely level then you're probably beyond homemade dirty bombs anyway
Last edited by shiva; Mar 17th 2014 at 4:37 am.
Mar 17th 2014, 4:36 am
#49
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Mar 17th 2014, 4:38 am
#50
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Re: What's your theory?
I just can't fathom a plane landing somewhere and NOBODY knowing about it. I know there are a fair few long enough runways in range but someone, somewhere would have seen and said something?
Mar 17th 2014, 4:44 am
#51
**** it we'll do it live
Joined: Oct 2004
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Re: What's your theory?
Unless it went to North Korea, Iran, any dodgy Stan or Diego Garcia
Mar 17th 2014, 4:50 am
#52
**** it we'll do it live
Joined: Oct 2004
Location: Dubai
Posts: 7,892
Re: What's your theory?
One other weird thing is the really badly photoshopped or photocopied legs on the two Iranians on stolen passports. It's the same legs and obviously so.
Not saying it's a conspiracy (more likely some poor sod was told to give them both legs) but how ****ing stupid have you got to be to try pass that one off? Bit like all the info or lack coming out of Malaysia
Not saying it's a conspiracy (more likely some poor sod was told to give them both legs) but how ****ing stupid have you got to be to try pass that one off? Bit like all the info or lack coming out of Malaysia
Mar 17th 2014, 5:09 am
#54
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Re: What's your theory?
One other weird thing is the really badly photoshopped or photocopied legs on the two Iranians on stolen passports. It's the same legs and obviously so.
Not saying it's a conspiracy (more likely some poor sod was told to give them both legs) but how ****ing stupid have you got to be to try pass that one off? Bit like all the info or lack coming out of Malaysia
http://resources1.news.com.au/images...e6a43f024e.jpg
Not saying it's a conspiracy (more likely some poor sod was told to give them both legs) but how ****ing stupid have you got to be to try pass that one off? Bit like all the info or lack coming out of Malaysia
http://resources1.news.com.au/images...e6a43f024e.jpg
Mar 17th 2014, 5:12 am
#55
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Mar 17th 2014, 5:17 am
#56
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Re: What's your theory?
I find that hard to believe.
If it went to Iran, it would have had to go through Chinese, Indian, Pak airspace - all would have spotted it.
Dodgy Stans - Russia/ china would have seen it
North Korea - The South Koreans would have spotted it
Some tiny Atol owned by a guy stroking a cat - maybe.
It would have had to have crashed or been diverted to a island where it didn't cross land to get there.
If it went to Iran, it would have had to go through Chinese, Indian, Pak airspace - all would have spotted it.
Dodgy Stans - Russia/ china would have seen it
North Korea - The South Koreans would have spotted it
Some tiny Atol owned by a guy stroking a cat - maybe.
It would have had to have crashed or been diverted to a island where it didn't cross land to get there.
Mar 17th 2014, 5:17 am
#57
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Re: What's your theory?
The Daily Fail is saying the pilot was a 'fanatical' supporter of the countries opposition leader who was jailed mere hours before the flight took off (for homosexuality) and this could be revenge.
With only a few hours notice though, how could you, for practical purposes, carry something like this off so cleanly on your own?
With only a few hours notice though, how could you, for practical purposes, carry something like this off so cleanly on your own?
Mar 17th 2014, 5:21 am
#58
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Re: What's your theory?
God no. Who do you think I am?
Does something with some firm in some airline business in AD. Hence my thinking it was originally a joke?
But to be honest, it's pretty obvious nobody actually knows. Those who might know are the governments and whatnot, who aren't going to be offering up info willingly until they want to. In fact, they don't seem to know much at the moment, but who knows what they know?
Does something with some firm in some airline business in AD. Hence my thinking it was originally a joke?
But to be honest, it's pretty obvious nobody actually knows. Those who might know are the governments and whatnot, who aren't going to be offering up info willingly until they want to. In fact, they don't seem to know much at the moment, but who knows what they know?
Mar 17th 2014, 7:03 am
#59
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Re: What's your theory?
I just heard that the latest theory is that the plane sent its last transmissions from the ground...
Mar 17th 2014, 7:11 am
#60
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Joined: Dec 2004
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Re: What's your theory?
I should have made myself clearer. When I said "a bit of a myth" I didn't mean they didn't exist at all, I was referring to the general "OMFG" aura that surrounds them. Having had a morbid fascination with these sorts of things for a long time I've read a lot about them. For various reasons, dirty bombs work far better as tools of psychological terrorism than actual practical terrorism.
Research strongly suggests that if one were ever set off, the real damage would be caused by the old-fashioned explosives, with the radioactive material having far less physical effect.
More to the point, standard explosives are far easier to obtain and work with and far more effective at causing mass damage and death.
While it would be possible to build a truly dangerous dirty bomb, it would require such a large amount of really nasty unshielded radioactive material that it would most likely kill whoever was trying to make it long before they had a chance to use it. Using the necessary amount of shielding to allow people to build and transport it any distance at all without being killed by the radiation before they had a chance to set it off would make it so impractical and reduce its ultimate effectiveness so much that it wouldn't have been worth all the effort.
Research strongly suggests that if one were ever set off, the real damage would be caused by the old-fashioned explosives, with the radioactive material having far less physical effect.
Thankfully your average terrorist isn't sophisticated enough to obtain the materials
While it would be possible to build a truly dangerous dirty bomb, it would require such a large amount of really nasty unshielded radioactive material that it would most likely kill whoever was trying to make it long before they had a chance to use it. Using the necessary amount of shielding to allow people to build and transport it any distance at all without being killed by the radiation before they had a chance to set it off would make it so impractical and reduce its ultimate effectiveness so much that it wouldn't have been worth all the effort.