Miss Anne Thrope

Lots can happen yet, particularly with jobs reports and the debates but Nate Silver, best analyst by far because he uses extremely well modelled and weighted data rather than anecdote and opinion, now rates Obama's chances of winning at over 77%, highest so far since the campaign has been underway...

Beaverstate

Could be. The worst time to take a poll is right after a convention. I realise you stated he doesn't rely strongly on opinion polls (which tend to be quite accurate most of the time). Many pundits stateside with good records still have it a toss up.

littlejimmy

Interesting take...could have been written by Fox News...

http://www.theonion.com/articles/oba...line%3Adefault

Beaverstate

Are you talkin to me? I am refering to sources around the country, far more than Fox. This does not make me a Romney supporter just another voter watching and listening with interest.

littlejimmy

Not directed at anyone, just came across it and thought I'd share.

Boomhauer

As of now, the election could go either way. Imho, it's a coin toss on whos going to clinch it.
I hope R_money doesn't win because there is going to be cuts in social programs for the poor, welfare for the rich and probably war with Iran and or Syria.

Little Boy

No, they are just making it appear like a horse race. It's over.

I posted over two years ago that it's Romney vs Obama and Obama wins. It's only an illusion that the American people select their president.

And i'm not a big conspiracy theorist

The Dean

Just had another glance/listen to Oblairma's speech........... OH MY GOD - he mentioned wind turbines! If Romney-Ryan have been doing their homework, they should be able to destroy him on that one............. those things are useless.......

Kix

Where was that then?

Little Boy

On a local message board when they started talking about this dog and pony show. I refused to get involved in the discussion, and i'm only doing it now to inform my new friends here that Obama will be the president of The United States of America for another four years..

The Dean

If your beloved bookies are right, you're not exactly giving us a front page exclusive scoop there, are you....?

Little Boy

No, but there's just no reason to discuss it as if the issue is still in doubt.

There will not be a Mormon in the White House- If you think Star Trek is a bunch of shit, try looking into that religion. It's absurd

Little Boy

I see Bookmakers as leaches on society, necessary leaches but leaches never the less.

Miss Anne Thrope

I think you're missing the point of Nate Silver's approach. He does take significant account of opinion polls with a very sophisticated analysis of historical performance of the pollster, sample size and composition etc. If the polls are accurate most of the time then how come they say different things? The race is close, without a doubt but that does not make it a "toss-up". That is just lazy and/or ill-informed analysis. Obama is winning, not by much but the evidence of the national polls and particularly of the swing-state polls is unambiguous. A few polls and pollsters have Romney ahead some or all of the time (the notorious Rasmussen in particular) but when most of the polls say Obama is ahead most of the time then it is not a question of statistical error. A win is a win as Al Gore can tell you.

littlejimmy

Nate Silver called it quite accurately last time, IIRC.