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UK House prices expected to drop by 20%

UK House prices expected to drop by 20%

Old Mar 12th 2011, 5:49 pm
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Default UK House prices expected to drop by 20%

or so I have heard- anyone been keeping an eye on prices back in blighty?

Just looking a house prices in London and its depressing! You can get an old box 1 bed for 250K! to get anything half way decent you're looking at a min 350K and nonce of them have a roof op pool or gym! Possibly getting too used to it out here!
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Old Mar 12th 2011, 6:04 pm
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Default Re: UK House prices expected to drop by 20%

I'd love to see a 20% drop - it may allow Mr Kitty and I to buy our first house!
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Old Mar 13th 2011, 4:45 am
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Default Re: UK House prices expected to drop by 20%

It won't happen. I read the story too. Just one person's opinion. If it does, though, I will be looking. You can still get a nice 3-bed detached for less than 150K in some parts of the country.
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Old Mar 13th 2011, 4:47 am
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Default Re: UK House prices expected to drop by 20%

Unfortunately London is the most resilient market in the UK. Property prices are unlikely to decline, if at all.

It's depressing to realise that even 500KGBP only nets you a small two bedroom flat even in the outlying areas.

I blame it on overseas buyers. They've been major purchasers in the capital in the last decade. They used to focus only on the prime central neighbourhoods but even those areas have become super expensive, and now they're buying in the secondary neighbourhoods.

Originally Posted by kittycat1 View Post
or so I have heard- anyone been keeping an eye on prices back in blighty?

Just looking a house prices in London and its depressing! You can get an old box 1 bed for 250K! to get anything half way decent you're looking at a min 350K and nonce of them have a roof op pool or gym! Possibly getting too used to it out here!
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Old Mar 13th 2011, 4:56 am
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Default Re: UK House prices expected to drop by 20%

Originally Posted by Ethos83 View Post
Unfortunately London is the most resilient market in the UK. Property prices are unlikely to decline, if at all.

It's depressing to realise that even 500KGBP only nets you a small two bedroom flat even in the outlying areas.

I blame it on overseas buyers. They've been major purchasers in the capital in the last decade. They used to focus only on the prime central neighbourhoods but even those areas have become super expensive, and now they're buying in the secondary neighbourhoods.
good boy. blame it on the foreigners - you have been here too long. London is resilient but not immune.

I would say that it is possible, unlikely, but possible. We sold our house in the UK when we left - we owned it for 15 months and it increased in value (based on our purchase and sale prices) by 35%. Since leaving, similar houses went down about 10% but seem to have recovered.

Is a 30+% increase in value in 15 months reasonable? of course not. Will it drop? Well, if they hold interest rates low then probably no - but as soon as they start to increase them (which they will have to)...

Controlling the economy with interest rates is like pulling a brick with elastic: Nothing happens for ages then all of a sudden you have over done it and it hits you in the face.
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Old Mar 13th 2011, 5:04 am
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Default Re: UK House prices expected to drop by 20%

Oh, I know foreigners are hardly the sole factor but there's no questioning the impact of overseas investors snapping up London property at large numbers and the trickle down effect. At the end of the day London is what it is because it's the richest, most dynamic and prosperous economic engine in the country.

I do regret not being my parents' generation. My aunt and uncle, she a librarian at the House of Commons and he a museum curator, were able to buy a large house in Islington on a small income back in the 1970s. Today? The house is worth 2 million easily. but me? I have a much bigger income than they did, adjusting for inflation, and I still can't afford a proper place to live in London. I'm beginning to resent the older generation who have received the lion's share of the wealth creation of the past thirty years, leaving the younger generation struggling to survive in a much more expensive world.

Originally Posted by EmiratesMillhouse View Post
good boy. blame it on the foreigners - you have been here too long. London is resilient but not immune.

I would say that it is possible, unlikely, but possible. We sold our house in the UK when we left - we owned it for 15 months and it increased in value (based on our purchase and sale prices) by 35%. Since leaving, similar houses went down about 10% but seem to have recovered.

Is a 30+% increase in value in 15 months reasonable? of course not. Will it drop? Well, if they hold interest rates low then probably no - but as soon as they start to increase them (which they will have to)...

Controlling the economy with interest rates is like pulling a brick with elastic: Nothing happens for ages then all of a sudden you have over done it and it hits you in the face.
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Old Mar 13th 2011, 5:28 am
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Default Re: UK House prices expected to drop by 20%

Originally Posted by Ethos83 View Post
I'm beginning to resent the older generation who have received the lion's share of the wealth creation of the past thirty years, leaving the younger generation struggling to survive in a much more expensive world.
Don't confuse wealth creation and credit expansion, they are different.

As for the old folks Ethos, take pity on them - they think they are rich but will lose it all when they have to pay for their old peoples' homes. At least our generation knows it's place from the beginning.
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Old Mar 13th 2011, 5:49 am
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Default Re: UK House prices expected to drop by 20%

I agree with ethos to a certain extent- how often do you find streeets in london where all theflats/houses are owned by one person who is generally nota british national? I personally think there should be a cap to how many properties one person can own (although I guess you could get around this quite easily). It sucks trying to get on the property ladder, I may well end up buying to let outside of London and renting for myself. And then there is the joy of trying to get a mortgage! urgh!
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Old Mar 14th 2011, 8:48 am
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Default Re: UK House prices expected to drop by 20%

Originally Posted by kittycat1 View Post
I agree with ethos to a certain extent- how often do you find streeets in london where all theflats/houses are owned by one person who is generally nota british national? I personally think there should be a cap to how many properties one person can own (although I guess you could get around this quite easily). It sucks trying to get on the property ladder, I may well end up buying to let outside of London and renting for myself. And then there is the joy of trying to get a mortgage! urgh!
I remember having a conversation with the chap who cleaned our wheelie bins in SE London when we were there in 2000-2004. He was in the process of buying his 5th buy-to-let. Mr Kitty and I - 2 young professionals - had resigned ourselves to not being able to afford to buy for the foreseeable future.

/QQ
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