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Shall we have a predictions for 2016 thread?
I'm feeling uneasy, like something big is going to go down.
In the meantime: - Rents will fall across the UAE, except for the compound that I want to over to. 😉 - Demographics will shift and expensive western expats will be let go. - Increased focus on the military as part of the national psyche. - Tighter border and visa control over citizens from unstable countries. - Cheap petrol. |
Re: Shall we have a predictions for 2016 thread?
This.
Originally Posted by al dente
(Post 11823127)
I'm feeling uneasy, like something big is going to go down.
It's going to be a roller coaster ride this year, methinks. Hold on to your hats, keep your head under the table, be frugal and see what happens. |
Re: Shall we have a predictions for 2016 thread?
I agree with the feeling uneasy - my gut instinic is to put on the body armour and hard hat ! - Rents will fall across the UAE >> Very prob. I dont think they will drop like 2008.
- Demographics will shift and expensive western expats will be let go. >> Very prob. Esp with increased nationalisation and markets falling heavily. - Increased focus on the military as part of the national psyche. >> Highly likely. This is the calm before the storm. Talks will fall with Yeman & Saudi. ISIS willl put increased pressure on the GCC and retalation attacks (including an increase in home grown insurgency) - Tighter border and visa control over citizens from unstable countries. >> I dont think there will be any tighter controls than already established. - Cheap petrol. >> Bigger budget deficits, further cuts in government spending (however they may try to hide it by building lots of white elephants - and try to prove Keynes wrong !)- Markets will tumble and remain flat by end of year. Overall a pretty negative year ! |
Re: Shall we have a predictions for 2016 thread?
The announcement from KSA was interesting:
'The change comes amid a raft of measures to combat the kingdom's record budget deficit of $98 billion in 2015.' and.... 'In October, the IMF said that Saudi Arabia could be bankrupt within five years if it did not look to diversify its revenue. In the same report, the IMF predicted that Saudi Arabia would run a deficit of 20 per cent of GDP in 2015. The reported $98 billion deficit represents 15 per cent of GDP.' Saudi Arabia to raise domestic petrol prices by 'up to 40%' as low oil price hits home | Business News | News | The Independent |
Re: Shall we have a predictions for 2016 thread?
There is already a crash underway except ADIA and various govt bodies are feeding cash into the economy and have been for a while. This will offset the worst for a while but a major geopolitical event locally or globally could lead to a full blown and uncontrolled crash. In the meantime projects will continue but very slowly as nobody wants the embarrassment of a full blown halt.
Expat demographics won't change much unless there is a full on crash. They seldom do here, the gulf war in 91 and 2008 being about the only two examples in 60 years. Rents make less than no sense here as landlords are willing and able to keep properties empty, the market has been over priced for a long time and I suspect any drop will be a small one as these people are relatively bullet proof and largely daft. To my mind any income beats none on an investment in property. Landlords however do not see it this way. A national military awakening and focus is already happening, martyrs day and the new branding of soldier silhouettes around the time shows that campaign is already well underway. This is in part due to the increased threat levels but also is being used as a way to unify an ever dwindling local percentage of the total population. It also ties in with national service as a defence means and as a way of motivating a generation in dire need of readjustment. Add in increased gcc tensions and a realisation that the west will abandon the region sooner rather than later and there has been a huge wake up call that they'd better start learning to use all that kit they've got in warehouses. Yemen is a ****ing mess and unlikely to end either well or any time soon, Saudi and UAE forces massively out number the houtis, massively outgun them but due to a distinct lack of combat experience are making very little actual headway in bringing any form of stability to the country. I won't mention details here but it going about as well as most of us would expect Border controls are utterly random right now and will only get worse as part of an uncoordinated and chaotic shambles being forced by the government and the US. Petrol will stay cheap as long as the oil price is down and one can only assume the huge deficits in the petrol companies has been paid off by the government as 30years of running at a loss should have left a massive hole that needed filled. Regionally, Iraq is ****ed and will stay that way, Syria will require boots on the ground but by who and for how long is anyone's guess, if we are all lucky NATO and Russia won't actually start ww3 over it. Iran scares the shit out of the gcc but represents a huge potential for the rest of the world, we all need a stable and secure Iran in the world and region to offset the mayhem on the other side of the gulf besides with everyone else in recession they may save our businesses. Turkey will be bollocked for buying Isis oil and Israel will be quietly bollocked for buying it from turkey. Qatar is embroiled in so much scandal in so many areas globally that some of it will start to gain serious traction, they will continue to try to spend their way out of the shit, it'll work for a while maybe even another couple of years but will eventually come crashing to a humiliating end. Oman is ****ed and needs higher oil prices but will survive as enough locals work. Bahrain will stay out of the news while continuing to suppress anyone who they don't like. Kuwait still won't have a functioning government and will keep lots of things out of the news as it always does. Jordan will do its best to suppress internal dissent by making some steps towards a more moderate and inclusive government. Lebanon, well it's Lebanon and nothing ever changes but the party will always continue. Saudi is ****ed, properly ****ed, too low an oil price, too much spending, too many and too much public handouts, too many princes, the mutawa are increasingly splitting the population, the Shia Sunni divide is getting worse by the day especially in the eastern region. A section of the younger generation increasingly reject the old ways and status quo but another part support increased religious control. It won't happen next year but Saudi is heading for a huge internal struggle that could ignite into a full on civil war. It's unlikely as the government will just print money and throw it at the problem but the under current is there and the Sparks have been lit, it's a matter of when not if. Tldr: it's as ****ed as ever and will carry on regardless, some of us will leave most of us will stay |
Re: Shall we have a predictions for 2016 thread?
:goodpost:
Just let my Qatar Air Farce job get started early 2016, then I don't care :lol: |
Re: Shall we have a predictions for 2016 thread?
Ah Shiva :wub:
Wisely said. |
Re: Shall we have a predictions for 2016 thread?
We've been told one of of tunnels projects (Al Ain) has been included in the budget for next year.....
Also, just had an inquiry about another road and tunnels job joining on to our currently under construction R&T's project and they seem to want to get that going ASAP. |
Re: Shall we have a predictions for 2016 thread?
Originally Posted by shiva
(Post 11823902)
There is already a crash underway except ADIA and various govt bodies are feeding cash into the economy and have been for a while. This will offset the worst for a while but a major geopolitical event locally or globally could lead to a full blown and uncontrolled crash. In the meantime projects will continue but very slowly as nobody wants the embarrassment of a full blown halt.
Expat demographics won't change much unless there is a full on crash. They seldom do here, the gulf war in 91 and 2008 being about the only two examples in 60 years. Rents make less than no sense here as landlords are willing and able to keep properties empty, the market has been over priced for a long time and I suspect any drop will be a small one as these people are relatively bullet proof and largely daft. To my mind any income beats none on an investment in property. Landlords however do not see it this way. A national military awakening and focus is already happening, martyrs day and the new branding of soldier silhouettes around the time shows that campaign is already well underway. This is in part due to the increased threat levels but also is being used as a way to unify an ever dwindling local percentage of the total population. It also ties in with national service as a defence means and as a way of motivating a generation in dire need of readjustment. Add in increased gcc tensions and a realisation that the west will abandon the region sooner rather than later and there has been a huge wake up call that they'd better start learning to use all that kit they've got in warehouses. Yemen is a ****ing mess and unlikely to end either well or any time soon, Saudi and UAE forces massively out number the houtis, massively outgun them but due to a distinct lack of combat experience are making very little actual headway in bringing any form of stability to the country. I won't mention details here but it going about as well as most of us would expect Border controls are utterly random right now and will only get worse as part of an uncoordinated and chaotic shambles being forced by the government and the US. Petrol will stay cheap as long as the oil price is down and one can only assume the huge deficits in the petrol companies has been paid off by the government as 30years of running at a loss should have left a massive hole that needed filled. Regionally, Iraq is ****ed and will stay that way, Syria will require boots on the ground but by who and for how long is anyone's guess, if we are all lucky NATO and Russia won't actually start ww3 over it. Iran scares the shit out of the gcc but represents a huge potential for the rest of the world, we all need a stable and secure Iran in the world and region to offset the mayhem on the other side of the gulf besides with everyone else in recession they may save our businesses. Turkey will be bollocked for buying Isis oil and Israel will be quietly bollocked for buying it from turkey. Qatar is embroiled in so much scandal in so many areas globally that some of it will start to gain serious traction, they will continue to try to spend their way out of the shit, it'll work for a while maybe even another couple of years but will eventually come crashing to a humiliating end. Oman is ****ed and needs higher oil prices but will survive as enough locals work. Bahrain will stay out of the news while continuing to suppress anyone who they don't like. Kuwait still won't have a functioning government and will keep lots of things out of the news as it always does. Jordan will do its best to suppress internal dissent by making some steps towards a more moderate and inclusive government. Lebanon, well it's Lebanon and nothing ever changes but the party will always continue. Saudi is ****ed, properly ****ed, too low an oil price, too much spending, too many and too much public handouts, too many princes, the mutawa are increasingly splitting the population, the Shia Sunni divide is getting worse by the day especially in the eastern region. A section of the younger generation increasingly reject the old ways and status quo but another part support increased religious control. It won't happen next year but Saudi is heading for a huge internal struggle that could ignite into a full on civil war. It's unlikely as the government will just print money and throw it at the problem but the under current is there and the Sparks have been lit, it's a matter of when not if. Tldr: it's as ****ed as ever and will carry on regardless, some of us will leave most of us will stay Just to add: The UAE is also using foreign mercenaries, from Columbia and elsewhere, in their war against the Houthis. The US is also providing intelligence assistance to the Saudis. Israel has enlisted the help of its powerfull friends in Britain (Lord Rothschild) and the US (Dick Cheney and others) to annex the Golan heights because there is sizebale oil there. |
Re: Shall we have a predictions for 2016 thread?
The meek will inherit the earth....well only when everyone else is finished with it.
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Re: Shall we have a predictions for 2016 thread?
Originally Posted by DubInRiyadh
(Post 11824748)
The meek will inherit the earth....
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Re: Shall we have a predictions for 2016 thread?
aww shucks but apologies for the lucid moment, normal ranting shall resume shortly
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Re: Shall we have a predictions for 2016 thread?
my prediction is that it's gonna be a shitty year ....
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Re: Shall we have a predictions for 2016 thread?
I think things are rapidly going sour for most of the gulf countries, but that doesn't mean you cannot survive. I've been in Dubai for 5 years and for those of you who know me it has been a massive roller-coaster ride, but I am actually pretty optimistic at this point.
My job is more secure and interesting than it has been for years and on top of that I am not working for a startup where stuff goes from rosy to shit overnight... If as a consequence of the issues rents and general cost of living goes down then I'll be happy as a pig in shit! |
Re: Shall we have a predictions for 2016 thread?
I'm looking forward to a miserable 2016.
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