Scottish Independence
Sep 9th 2014, 1:33 pm
#76
Hit 16's
Joined: Mar 2010
Location: Of all the gin joints, in all the towns, in all the world, she walks into mine
Posts: 13,112
Sep 9th 2014, 1:34 pm
#77
Account Closed
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 0
Re: Scottish Independence
I get the feeling it's a millenium bug kind of thing. It will all come and go and whatever the result, nothing will actually happen. The world will keep spinning, people will carry on doing what they do and everyone will just start asking questions about what the campaigns have cost and how many hospitals could have been built with the cash.
Sep 9th 2014, 11:10 pm
#78
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Jun 2012
Location: Magic Kingdom
Posts: 947
Re: Scottish Independence
Fears for millions of Brits as foreign banks pull cash from UK over Scottish independence | Politics | News | Daily Express
If the Pound weakens, that means our wages are worth more when sent back home, right? Might make up for the lack of pay rise over the last two years and accompanying inflation in KSA of about 6.86% over that period compounded by the strengthening pound (5.86-6.34 at it's worst.)
If the Pound weakens, that means our wages are worth more when sent back home, right? Might make up for the lack of pay rise over the last two years and accompanying inflation in KSA of about 6.86% over that period compounded by the strengthening pound (5.86-6.34 at it's worst.)
Sep 10th 2014, 1:03 am
#79
Just Joined
Joined: Sep 2014
Posts: 2
Re: Scottish Independence
I gather that the British Embassy is of some value/comfort to expats in the region generally; does anybody know how the potentially-soon-to-be-not-British stand in that regard?
Is it toodle-pip for the jocks?
Is Eck planning to open a new shop?
Is it toodle-pip for the jocks?
Is Eck planning to open a new shop?
Sep 10th 2014, 3:03 am
#80
Account Closed
Joined: Mar 2012
Location: Dubai, working at Dust World Central
Posts: 3,706
Sep 10th 2014, 4:27 am
#81
Big Member
Joined: Jul 2005
Posts: 3,889
Re: Scottish Independence
One positive from a Yes vote would be that he is no longer manning the embassy phones.
Sep 10th 2014, 5:29 am
#83
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Jun 2007
Location: Dubai
Posts: 13,547
Re: Scottish Independence
Salmond has just announced an Independent Scotland's plan to replace the Trident deterrent 
Sep 10th 2014, 6:59 am
#85
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 570
Re: Scottish Independence
Because a few aging Harriers on Illustrious would make all the difference bobbing about the Black Sea. Putin would be quaking in his boots.
Sep 10th 2014, 8:29 am
#86
Soupy twist
Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 2,271
Re: Scottish Independence
A Scottish friend who's anti-independence and also understands economics and politics came up with this scenario following a "yes" vote. He says it's not scaremongering, all this could quite feasibly happen:
"There will be an immediate run on the pound, knocking 10-15% of it's value off within days.
Gilt yields will rise by around 200-250 basis points over German bunds, pushing UK borrowing costs considerably above those of Spain and Italy.
Capital flight will begin as investors start to pull money out of any bank or financial institution seen as Scottish.
The Bank of England will be forced to provide emergency liquidity and capital controls.
David Cameron will resist for a few weeks, and then be forced to resign. The Conservatives will fight amongst themselves, the Coalition will collapse, either Labour will force a vote on no confidence or the government will simply fall.
There are ugly scenes in the Commons as backbenchers call for Scottish MP's to be expelled and shouts of "foreigner" when these MP's try to speak.
A General Election is forced.
The UK is regarded as having fallen out of control and into political chaos - triggering another run on the pound and pushing up borrowing costs further.
Labour are elected with a slim majority made only possible by Scottish votes.
The markets regard a Labour government with suspicion and, lacking the ability to drive through cuts, the UK's debt and deficit begins to slip out of control again - pushing up yields on gilts even higher.
The Labour government is regarded as a lame duck because it will not command a majority when it's Scottish MP's leave.
One or more credit ratings agencies downgrade the UK by at least two steps and warnings more may follow.
The political and economic chaos destroys growth and pushes us back into recession, leading to even more problems over servicing the debt.
Businesses cancel any impending plans to invest, expand or take on employees as the economy is too uncertain to take any such risks.
Foreign investors pull out.
The Bank of England is forced to cut rates to near zero and engage in more "quantitative easing". The pound tumbles again.
Public demand within England to end the Barnett formula with immediate effect steadily rises.
If those happens it's going to be one almighty mess. Sentiment against Scotland is going to harden very fast. And divorce will be protracted and bitter. The Daily Mail begins to run headlines about "The Day Scotland brought Britain to it's Knees" and "Don't give the bastards a single penny or a single inch".
In Scotland, meanwhile:
A month of partying.
The currency issue remains unresolved and eventually Scotland announces it will use the pound informally.
Capital flight begins as investors pull money out of the Scottish financial sector.
A major bank, followed by more, announces that it is relocating to England because it cannot remain headquartered in a country where the tax and regulation systems are unknown, where there is no central bank, and in any case European rules require banks to headquarter in the country where the majority of their customers are located.
The European Union formally announces that once it ceases to be part of the UK, Scotland ceases to be part of the EU. The normal application process will apply and the proposed timetable is five years from independence day. The EU refuses to negotiate with the Scottish government until it represents the government of a sovereign state as any committments are rendered meaningless in the meanwhile.
Scottish citizens may retain their EU citizen rights by remaining UK citizens.
The Spanish, Belgian and Italian governments issue statements that "whilst welcome as an applicant state, we expect Scotland to be in full compliance with the Treaty requirements for applicant states, including those regarding Schengen and the euro, and that otherwise we cannot approve Scottish accession to the Union".
The Commission issues a legal opinion that Scotland cannot fulfill the Treaties whilst using the pound as this violates the requirement to prepare for monetary union.
Westminster announces that it has no choice but to implement border and customs controls, because the Scotland-England border becomes the external EU border, and free movement of goods and persons is not possible between an EU and non-EU country, unless that country has bi-lateral agreements which must be negotiated at EU level. 70% of Scottish trade now faces EU tariffs.
Scottish income from the North Sea plummets as the pound declines against the dollar.
Negotiations with the rest of the UK become deeply acrimonious and Scotland repeats a threat the renege on a share of the debt.
Capital controls imposed by the Bank of England restrict withdrawals of money within Scotland via branches, ATM's and internet. Lines begin to form outside banks with people bearing "It's Our Money!" placards.
In Holyrood the opposition parties openly accuse the SNP government of having it's "lies exposed" over currency and Europe.
Credit ratings agencies rate Scotland at at least four steps below the UK credit rating due to uncertainties over currency and European issues.
The Scottish economy enters a severe recession as inward investment ceases, credit becomes impossible to obtain and it faces the loss of 90% of its domestic market, which instead becomes a market within a foreign country exports to which involve tariffs and Customs controls.
And it will go on and on and on for years..."
"There will be an immediate run on the pound, knocking 10-15% of it's value off within days.
Gilt yields will rise by around 200-250 basis points over German bunds, pushing UK borrowing costs considerably above those of Spain and Italy.
Capital flight will begin as investors start to pull money out of any bank or financial institution seen as Scottish.
The Bank of England will be forced to provide emergency liquidity and capital controls.
David Cameron will resist for a few weeks, and then be forced to resign. The Conservatives will fight amongst themselves, the Coalition will collapse, either Labour will force a vote on no confidence or the government will simply fall.
There are ugly scenes in the Commons as backbenchers call for Scottish MP's to be expelled and shouts of "foreigner" when these MP's try to speak.
A General Election is forced.
The UK is regarded as having fallen out of control and into political chaos - triggering another run on the pound and pushing up borrowing costs further.
Labour are elected with a slim majority made only possible by Scottish votes.
The markets regard a Labour government with suspicion and, lacking the ability to drive through cuts, the UK's debt and deficit begins to slip out of control again - pushing up yields on gilts even higher.
The Labour government is regarded as a lame duck because it will not command a majority when it's Scottish MP's leave.
One or more credit ratings agencies downgrade the UK by at least two steps and warnings more may follow.
The political and economic chaos destroys growth and pushes us back into recession, leading to even more problems over servicing the debt.
Businesses cancel any impending plans to invest, expand or take on employees as the economy is too uncertain to take any such risks.
Foreign investors pull out.
The Bank of England is forced to cut rates to near zero and engage in more "quantitative easing". The pound tumbles again.
Public demand within England to end the Barnett formula with immediate effect steadily rises.
If those happens it's going to be one almighty mess. Sentiment against Scotland is going to harden very fast. And divorce will be protracted and bitter. The Daily Mail begins to run headlines about "The Day Scotland brought Britain to it's Knees" and "Don't give the bastards a single penny or a single inch".
In Scotland, meanwhile:
A month of partying.
The currency issue remains unresolved and eventually Scotland announces it will use the pound informally.
Capital flight begins as investors pull money out of the Scottish financial sector.
A major bank, followed by more, announces that it is relocating to England because it cannot remain headquartered in a country where the tax and regulation systems are unknown, where there is no central bank, and in any case European rules require banks to headquarter in the country where the majority of their customers are located.
The European Union formally announces that once it ceases to be part of the UK, Scotland ceases to be part of the EU. The normal application process will apply and the proposed timetable is five years from independence day. The EU refuses to negotiate with the Scottish government until it represents the government of a sovereign state as any committments are rendered meaningless in the meanwhile.
Scottish citizens may retain their EU citizen rights by remaining UK citizens.
The Spanish, Belgian and Italian governments issue statements that "whilst welcome as an applicant state, we expect Scotland to be in full compliance with the Treaty requirements for applicant states, including those regarding Schengen and the euro, and that otherwise we cannot approve Scottish accession to the Union".
The Commission issues a legal opinion that Scotland cannot fulfill the Treaties whilst using the pound as this violates the requirement to prepare for monetary union.
Westminster announces that it has no choice but to implement border and customs controls, because the Scotland-England border becomes the external EU border, and free movement of goods and persons is not possible between an EU and non-EU country, unless that country has bi-lateral agreements which must be negotiated at EU level. 70% of Scottish trade now faces EU tariffs.
Scottish income from the North Sea plummets as the pound declines against the dollar.
Negotiations with the rest of the UK become deeply acrimonious and Scotland repeats a threat the renege on a share of the debt.
Capital controls imposed by the Bank of England restrict withdrawals of money within Scotland via branches, ATM's and internet. Lines begin to form outside banks with people bearing "It's Our Money!" placards.
In Holyrood the opposition parties openly accuse the SNP government of having it's "lies exposed" over currency and Europe.
Credit ratings agencies rate Scotland at at least four steps below the UK credit rating due to uncertainties over currency and European issues.
The Scottish economy enters a severe recession as inward investment ceases, credit becomes impossible to obtain and it faces the loss of 90% of its domestic market, which instead becomes a market within a foreign country exports to which involve tariffs and Customs controls.
And it will go on and on and on for years..."
Last edited by Eeyore; Sep 10th 2014 at 8:32 am.
Sep 10th 2014, 9:46 am
#87
**** it we'll do it live
Thread Starter
Joined: Oct 2004
Location: Dubai
Posts: 7,892
Re: Scottish Independence
A Scottish friend who's anti-independence and also understands economics and politics came up with this scenario following a "yes" vote. He says it's not scaremongering, all this could quite feasibly happen: quiet feasibly we could be hit by a big lump of rock nobody has seen either but we dont seem to worry about it.
"There will be an immediate run on the pound, knocking 10-15% of it's value off within days.almost certainly, the question is how long before investors remember nothing really happens until 2016 and that both nations are in the top 20 richest on earth. there will not be a sustained panic in the markets
Gilt yields will rise by around 200-250 basis points over German bunds, pushing UK borrowing costs considerably above those of Spain and Italy.possibly and again as above will be unsustained as theres no fundamental reason why
Capital flight will begin as investors start to pull money out of any bank or financial institution seen as Scottish.some and yet again it will be minimal and short term, money flees uncertainty and returns when its there. a country well developed, rich in resources at no risk of war or revolution is a safe long term bet.
The Bank of England will be forced to provide emergency liquidity and capital controls.thi sis assuming the above all happens and sheer panic sets in
David Cameron will resist for a few weeks, and then be forced to resign. The Conservatives will fight amongst themselves, the Coalition will collapse, either Labour will force a vote on no confidence or the government will simply fall.this i think highly likely
There are ugly scenes in the Commons as backbenchers call for Scottish MP's to be expelled and shouts of "foreigner" when these MP's try to speak.
this is already happening. a family friend routinely briefs no.10 and was asked by a v senior govt member to leave the room 2 days ago because " he is scottish" this is a guy who has served the union in uniform for over 20 yrs, has been shot at in iraq and afghanistan and has a chest full of medals and an impeccable record. he has lodged an official complaint and is now wrestling with his views on his No vote.
A General Election is forced.
hhhm maybe, the media will be out for blood, camerons may do the job
The UK is regarded as having fallen out of control and into political chaos - triggering another run on the pound and pushing up borrowing costs further.
doubtful although im sure those countries with the most to gain will try push it in their media
Labour are elected with a slim majority made only possible by Scottish votes.
The markets regard a Labour government with suspicion and, lacking the ability to drive through cuts, the UK's debt and deficit begins to slip out of control again - pushing up yields on gilts even higher.i'm sure labour will sell the china to avid this in their never ending cycle of "the tories will pay for us eventually"
The Labour government is regarded as a lame duck because it will not command a majority when it's Scottish MP's leave.possibly
One or more credit ratings agencies downgrade the UK by at least two steps and warnings more may follow.they've already said that will happen, Uk loses oil and scotland will be new. agencies have also said that the downgrade wont last
The political and economic chaos destroys growth and pushes us back into recession, leading to even more problems over servicing the debt.again this relies on a string of unlikely circumstances all conspiring and transpiring
Businesses cancel any impending plans to invest, expand or take on employees as the economy is too uncertain to take any such risks.if all the above happen maybe
Foreign investors pull out.
we said that already no?
The Bank of England is forced to cut rates to near zero and engage in more "quantitative easing". The pound tumbles again.
Public demand within England to end the Barnett formula with immediate effect steadily rises.i doubt it will be steady, more immediate
If those happens it's going to be one almighty mess. Sentiment against Scotland is going to harden very fast. And divorce will be protracted and bitter. The Daily Mail begins to run headlines about "The Day Scotland brought Britain to it's Knees" and "Don't give the bastards a single penny or a single inch".
given the media this week i'd say thats already happening, ive had my daily mail reading home counties mother in law accusing me of wanting to start a civil war already, i imagine it will only get worse
In Scotland, meanwhile:
A month of partying.
whoever wins
The currency issue remains unresolved and eventually Scotland announces it will use the pound informally.
probably
Capital flight begins as investors pull money out of the Scottish financial sector.see above, for a while
A major bank, followed by more, announces that it is relocating to England because it cannot remain headquartered in a country where the tax and regulation systems are unknown, where there is no central bank, and in any case European rules require banks to headquarter in the country where the majority of their customers are located.announcing and moving will be very different, the costs involved are massive. in reality much like halliburton to dubai, 20 people and a sign will move
The European Union formally announces that once it ceases to be part of the UK, Scotland ceases to be part of the EU. The normal application process will apply and the proposed timetable is five years from independence day. The EU refuses to negotiate with the Scottish government until it represents the government of a sovereign state as any committments are rendered meaningless in the meanwhile.very possibly especially if rUK are deeply pissed and throw some weight around. or if europe are deeply pissed scotland will be automatically in just to really **** with what remains of the Uk
Scottish citizens may retain their EU citizen rights by remaining UK citizens.
The Spanish, Belgian and Italian governments issue statements that "whilst welcome as an applicant state, we expect Scotland to be in full compliance with the Treaty requirements for applicant states, including those regarding Schengen and the euro, and that otherwise we cannot approve Scottish accession to the Union".possibly
The Commission issues a legal opinion that Scotland cannot fulfill the Treaties whilst using the pound as this violates the requirement to prepare for monetary union.possibly
Westminster announces that it has no choice but to implement border and customs controls, because the Scotland-England border becomes the external EU border, and free movement of goods and persons is not possible between an EU and non-EU country, unless that country has bi-lateral agreements which must be negotiated at EU level. 70% of Scottish trade now faces EU tariffs.this will probably happen its a question of when and how
Scottish income from the North Sea plummets as the pound declines against the dollar.short term, id expect it to recover by 2016
Negotiations with the rest of the UK become deeply acrimonious and Scotland repeats a threat the renege on a share of the debt.becomes? it already is and will only get worse
Capital controls imposed by the Bank of England restrict withdrawals of money within Scotland via branches, ATM's and internet. Lines begin to form outside banks with people bearing "It's Our Money!" placards.highly doubtful
In Holyrood the opposition parties openly accuse the SNP government of having it's "lies exposed" over currency and Europe.definately
Credit ratings agencies rate Scotland at at least four steps below the UK credit rating due to uncertainties over currency and European issues.unlikely, it'll be below but by 1-2 steps max
The Scottish economy enters a severe recession as inward investment ceases, credit becomes impossible to obtain and it faces the loss of 90% of its domestic market, which instead becomes a market within a foreign country exports to which involve tariffs and Customs controls.by 2016 i suspect most of this will be ironed out. rUk has to import most of that lot or find other sources that will be even more costly
And it will go on and on and on for years..."
"There will be an immediate run on the pound, knocking 10-15% of it's value off within days.almost certainly, the question is how long before investors remember nothing really happens until 2016 and that both nations are in the top 20 richest on earth. there will not be a sustained panic in the markets
Gilt yields will rise by around 200-250 basis points over German bunds, pushing UK borrowing costs considerably above those of Spain and Italy.possibly and again as above will be unsustained as theres no fundamental reason why
Capital flight will begin as investors start to pull money out of any bank or financial institution seen as Scottish.some and yet again it will be minimal and short term, money flees uncertainty and returns when its there. a country well developed, rich in resources at no risk of war or revolution is a safe long term bet.
The Bank of England will be forced to provide emergency liquidity and capital controls.thi sis assuming the above all happens and sheer panic sets in
David Cameron will resist for a few weeks, and then be forced to resign. The Conservatives will fight amongst themselves, the Coalition will collapse, either Labour will force a vote on no confidence or the government will simply fall.this i think highly likely
There are ugly scenes in the Commons as backbenchers call for Scottish MP's to be expelled and shouts of "foreigner" when these MP's try to speak.
this is already happening. a family friend routinely briefs no.10 and was asked by a v senior govt member to leave the room 2 days ago because " he is scottish" this is a guy who has served the union in uniform for over 20 yrs, has been shot at in iraq and afghanistan and has a chest full of medals and an impeccable record. he has lodged an official complaint and is now wrestling with his views on his No vote.
A General Election is forced.
hhhm maybe, the media will be out for blood, camerons may do the job
The UK is regarded as having fallen out of control and into political chaos - triggering another run on the pound and pushing up borrowing costs further.
doubtful although im sure those countries with the most to gain will try push it in their media
Labour are elected with a slim majority made only possible by Scottish votes.
The markets regard a Labour government with suspicion and, lacking the ability to drive through cuts, the UK's debt and deficit begins to slip out of control again - pushing up yields on gilts even higher.i'm sure labour will sell the china to avid this in their never ending cycle of "the tories will pay for us eventually"
The Labour government is regarded as a lame duck because it will not command a majority when it's Scottish MP's leave.possibly
One or more credit ratings agencies downgrade the UK by at least two steps and warnings more may follow.they've already said that will happen, Uk loses oil and scotland will be new. agencies have also said that the downgrade wont last
The political and economic chaos destroys growth and pushes us back into recession, leading to even more problems over servicing the debt.again this relies on a string of unlikely circumstances all conspiring and transpiring
Businesses cancel any impending plans to invest, expand or take on employees as the economy is too uncertain to take any such risks.if all the above happen maybe
Foreign investors pull out.
we said that already no?
The Bank of England is forced to cut rates to near zero and engage in more "quantitative easing". The pound tumbles again.
Public demand within England to end the Barnett formula with immediate effect steadily rises.i doubt it will be steady, more immediate
If those happens it's going to be one almighty mess. Sentiment against Scotland is going to harden very fast. And divorce will be protracted and bitter. The Daily Mail begins to run headlines about "The Day Scotland brought Britain to it's Knees" and "Don't give the bastards a single penny or a single inch".
given the media this week i'd say thats already happening, ive had my daily mail reading home counties mother in law accusing me of wanting to start a civil war already, i imagine it will only get worse
In Scotland, meanwhile:
A month of partying.
whoever wins
The currency issue remains unresolved and eventually Scotland announces it will use the pound informally.
probably
Capital flight begins as investors pull money out of the Scottish financial sector.see above, for a while
A major bank, followed by more, announces that it is relocating to England because it cannot remain headquartered in a country where the tax and regulation systems are unknown, where there is no central bank, and in any case European rules require banks to headquarter in the country where the majority of their customers are located.announcing and moving will be very different, the costs involved are massive. in reality much like halliburton to dubai, 20 people and a sign will move
The European Union formally announces that once it ceases to be part of the UK, Scotland ceases to be part of the EU. The normal application process will apply and the proposed timetable is five years from independence day. The EU refuses to negotiate with the Scottish government until it represents the government of a sovereign state as any committments are rendered meaningless in the meanwhile.very possibly especially if rUK are deeply pissed and throw some weight around. or if europe are deeply pissed scotland will be automatically in just to really **** with what remains of the Uk
Scottish citizens may retain their EU citizen rights by remaining UK citizens.
The Spanish, Belgian and Italian governments issue statements that "whilst welcome as an applicant state, we expect Scotland to be in full compliance with the Treaty requirements for applicant states, including those regarding Schengen and the euro, and that otherwise we cannot approve Scottish accession to the Union".possibly
The Commission issues a legal opinion that Scotland cannot fulfill the Treaties whilst using the pound as this violates the requirement to prepare for monetary union.possibly
Westminster announces that it has no choice but to implement border and customs controls, because the Scotland-England border becomes the external EU border, and free movement of goods and persons is not possible between an EU and non-EU country, unless that country has bi-lateral agreements which must be negotiated at EU level. 70% of Scottish trade now faces EU tariffs.this will probably happen its a question of when and how
Scottish income from the North Sea plummets as the pound declines against the dollar.short term, id expect it to recover by 2016
Negotiations with the rest of the UK become deeply acrimonious and Scotland repeats a threat the renege on a share of the debt.becomes? it already is and will only get worse
Capital controls imposed by the Bank of England restrict withdrawals of money within Scotland via branches, ATM's and internet. Lines begin to form outside banks with people bearing "It's Our Money!" placards.highly doubtful
In Holyrood the opposition parties openly accuse the SNP government of having it's "lies exposed" over currency and Europe.definately
Credit ratings agencies rate Scotland at at least four steps below the UK credit rating due to uncertainties over currency and European issues.unlikely, it'll be below but by 1-2 steps max
The Scottish economy enters a severe recession as inward investment ceases, credit becomes impossible to obtain and it faces the loss of 90% of its domestic market, which instead becomes a market within a foreign country exports to which involve tariffs and Customs controls.by 2016 i suspect most of this will be ironed out. rUk has to import most of that lot or find other sources that will be even more costly
And it will go on and on and on for years..."
the above may all be possibilities but its all a bit sky falling stuff. If the above were all to happen I have no doubt there'd be a total break down of the British isles and absolute anarchy.
yeah its possible but its not going to happen.
If the Uk were a screwed African nation like DRC or central asin dictatorship then maybe. but no.
Sep 10th 2014, 10:24 am
#88
Soupy twist
Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 2,271
Re: Scottish Independence
It has much more of a ring of truth about it than Salmond's apparent position that independence is a completely risk-free proposition where Scotland gets to keep all the parts of the Union it likes, get rid of all the others, and have the whole shebang underwritten by English taxpayers who will be on the hook to bail Scotland out when the wheels come off.
You simply can't rip a country into two bits without paying a huge financial cost. Scotland will probably get the worst of it, but no mistake, it's going to hurt everybody, except those who are wealthy enough to be financially insulated.
These things have a very nasty habit of escaping control - you only need the markets to lose confidence and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy; the markets start to think the UK could possibly default, so they crank up borrowing costs to the point where you do.
Worth remembering "May you live in interesting times" is a curse!
The UK really doesn't want to live in "interesting times" of the sort they went through in Ireland or Greece or, God help us, Cyprus or Iceland.
You simply can't rip a country into two bits without paying a huge financial cost. Scotland will probably get the worst of it, but no mistake, it's going to hurt everybody, except those who are wealthy enough to be financially insulated.
These things have a very nasty habit of escaping control - you only need the markets to lose confidence and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy; the markets start to think the UK could possibly default, so they crank up borrowing costs to the point where you do.
Worth remembering "May you live in interesting times" is a curse!
The UK really doesn't want to live in "interesting times" of the sort they went through in Ireland or Greece or, God help us, Cyprus or Iceland.
Sep 10th 2014, 10:40 am
#89
**** it we'll do it live
Thread Starter
Joined: Oct 2004
Location: Dubai
Posts: 7,892
Re: Scottish Independence
It has much more of a ring of truth about it than Salmond's apparent position that independence is a completely risk-free proposition where Scotland gets to keep all the parts of the Union it likes, get rid of all the others, and have the whole shebang underwritten by English taxpayers who will be on the hook to bail Scotland out when the wheels come off.
You simply can't rip a country into two bits without paying a huge financial cost. Scotland will probably get the worst of it, but no mistake, it's going to hurt everybody, except those who are wealthy enough to be financially insulated.
These things have a very nasty habit of escaping control - you only need the markets to lose confidence and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy; the markets start to think the UK could possibly default, so they crank up borrowing costs to the point where you do.
Worth remembering "May you live in interesting times" is a curse!
The UK really doesn't want to live in "interesting times" of the sort they went through in Ireland or Greece or, God help us, Cyprus or Iceland.
You simply can't rip a country into two bits without paying a huge financial cost. Scotland will probably get the worst of it, but no mistake, it's going to hurt everybody, except those who are wealthy enough to be financially insulated.
These things have a very nasty habit of escaping control - you only need the markets to lose confidence and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy; the markets start to think the UK could possibly default, so they crank up borrowing costs to the point where you do.
Worth remembering "May you live in interesting times" is a curse!
The UK really doesn't want to live in "interesting times" of the sort they went through in Ireland or Greece or, God help us, Cyprus or Iceland.
.
however as i also said this is all a bit too far, fundamentally both sides have strong economies, democracies, educated populations, decent infrastructure, etc the things that would cause the total collapse of a nation just arent present.
the sky wont fall any time soon. It will rain, if both sides arent sensible it will rain harder and for longer for both. But the Uk and british isles are not about to become Mogadishu
Sep 10th 2014, 11:16 am
#90
Soupy twist
Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 2,271
Re: Scottish Independence
An article in the Telegraph summed this up pretty well:
"In what is easily the biggest lie in a war that has been notable for several whoppers, Alex Salmond has decreed that a vote against his plan to break up Britain would mean the increasing privatisation of the NHS in Scotland. More and more health provision would go out to private tender, he claims, whilst what’s left would be starved of cash.
That he and his supporters can repeat this monstrous calumny with a straight face and with no sign that they’ve got their fingers crossed behind their backs is remarkable for the simple reason that health policy north of the border, along with education and the legal system, has always been the responsibility of Scottish ministers who, since devolution, are answerable only to the Scottish Parliament. This means that the only person who can privatise the NHS in Scotland is Alex Salmond..."
...and as it turns out, the Scottish government *has* been hiving off NHS operations and even whole departments to the private sector. And yet the Yes campaign has been using slogans like "Vote Yes To Save The NHS"
