mikewot

As I stated clearly at the start of this thread my heart says YES! Freedom!! But my mind says WTF! Are you crazy!
There is so much uncertainty, so many unknowns. OK call me a fearty and it'll be alright on the night. But...........

shiva

missed that sorry.

ya big jessie!

no i get the fear i really do but oh so many of the scare stories are just that, scare stories (from both sides). whats left are real issue certainly but none are insurmountable.

When the hype of both sides is removed it really is a choice of stay or go it alone as long term most peoples lives wont actually change that much but their government will. I suspect for the worse for a few years mind but live in hope that the worst of the idiots will be weeded out in one or two general elections

Eeyore

If Scotland is to be independent, then what you've described above is exactly what it should be like. But Salmond's preferred option isn't actually full independence, is it? He wants to share the pound and for the BoE to act as Scotland's central bank, which would make true independence impossible.

shiva

Completely agree which is why I doubt I'd vote for him in a general election.

I also think he really really wanted Devo max 1st as did almost all of Scotland.

I see no issue with not doing the above as so many other nations do but feel he has played the politically smart card. The concept of a new currency just scares the shit out of people. Why nobody has mentioned a Scottish Central bank I have no idea though. It's the only sensible long term plan

shiva

Scotland is a stable (it'll blow over) democracy with decent infrastructure, well educated population, abundant natural resources a pretty well diversified economy and more than enough oil to back it for a couple of decades.

Why the hell everyone is so scared of a Scottish currency and central bank I have no idea. It would be a transition but one that many many countries less able than ourselves have done and managed ok with so I fail to see why it's an issue to anyone in the debate.

shiva

Some more food for thought

here

"The Investors Chronicle states:

"We think that Westminster has been deliberately downplaying the potential of the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) ahead of September's referendum on Scottish independence.

The Department of Energy has certainly been far more subdued than it was at the time of the February publication of Sir Ian Wood's preliminary findings on the future of offshore oil & gas in the UK."

According to the report, the UK economy could generate £200bn over the next 20 years through the recovery of only 3-4bn barrels of North Sea oil and gas.

Many analysts believe that the potential is much greater, although energy companies will need to be offered increased tax incentives to stay the course in the North Sea.""


same article referenced here.

here

and a pdf around the paywall

"BRITAIN'S leading investment magazine has claimed Westminster is deliberately downplaying the
potential for oil and gas returns from the North Sea ahead of the referendum.".

shiva

And Ian Woods report that he has now contradicted

"This Review provides the opportunity for it to face its next 30 years and beyond, supported by a better resourced, more focused Regulator working with HM Treasury and Industry in greater collaboration to take us closer to the 24 billion boe prize potentially to come."

he somehow lost 9 billion barrels of oil in just a few months


Wood Review


"Written Ministerial Statement by The Rt Hon Edward Davey Mp: Secretary Of State For Energy And Climate Change on a review of UK offshore oil and gas recovery.".
here

"Some 41 billion barrels of oil and gas have already been produced from the UK Continental Shelf, and 20 billion or more could still to be produced. "

someone else lost a few billion barrels

"Oil and gas infographic: why the sector is important to the UK economy"



this one makes for some interesting reading

UK oil and gas: business and government action plan

"Stemming the rate of decline of oil and
gas production from the UKCS has
the potential to increase greatly UK tax
receipts, not only by way of production
taxes but also through corporation tax
payments from the supply chain and
employment taxes. Looking solely at
production taxes, projects recently
approved in 2011 and 2012 alone will
generate an additional £25 billion in
tax.2"

"Provides a source of employment for over
400 thousand people across the UK (45%
Scotland and 55% England, Wales and
Northern Ireland)4
ƒ Is Britain’s largest industrial investor and
is investing more than ever before (£11.5
billion in 2012 and DECC forecasts
investment of £14 billion in 2013)5
.
ƒ Meets almost one half of the UK’s total
primary energy needs.
ƒ Boosts the balance of payments by
almost £50 billion a year, according to
industry estimates, by reducing oil and
gas imports, and by exporting goods
around the world.
ƒ Has a strong domestic supply chain that
has seen revenue growth each year since
2008, reaching £27 billion in 20113
. "

"A comprehensive overview of the UK supply
chain’s performance in terms of exports is not
available. In the absence of this information,
Scottish Enterprise data provides a useful
reference point for underlying trends and
activity. It records Scottish exports to over
100 different countries. The report quantifies
that Scotland’s international activity has risen
from £1.8 billion in 2000 to £7.5 billion in
2010, of which £2.3 billion came from direct
exports and £5.2 billion came from sales via
overseas subsidiaries. The majority of sales
were in services to USA, Canada, Angola,
Norway and Australia7"

Ethos82

Shiva,

You keep bringing up obscure articles by obscure people or obscure groups. I ain't saying they can't be right.

But when I'm faced with both your link and the heads of Shell and BP, as well as Wood himself, who am I going to take as more credible?

Wood and the CEOs may very well be wrong despite having at their fingertips all the information and resources of huge multi billion pound companies operating in the North Sea for decades. And for Scotland's sake I hope they are.

But as I mentioned earlier, oil is a red herring. Forget the oil.

shiva

You missed the link to woods own report then, or perhaps the BP quote?
The later links are from the UK govt.
wood to get his report conclusion spoke to the producers of 95% of the uk's oil and gas. Are those the experts you are referring to?

When you say obscure I don't think that's the word you are looking for.
If you are referring to investors chronicle it's the FT's investment publication, hardly obscure

Eeyore

There's a grim humour in the SNP being so enthusiastic about oil, given its supposed commitment to tackling climate change and other environmental issues. But at the end of the day, Salmond et al are just yet more short-sighted politicians who'll be safely dead when our kids are having to cope with the full effects of climate change.

scrubbedexpat141

Scotland could probable happily survive on tourism and whisky sales alone. Oil is just a bonus.

Salmond is a wanker but that doesn't mean it isn't a bad idea in general.

I'd still vote no, but picking apart the nitty-gritty of how much oil is left seems a little irrelevant if nobody can answer what currency the sales of it would give Scotland.

the_red_sheep

So you think Westminster is a fine upstanding establishment which serves the entire UK fairly and equally?

I’m no great fan of politicians (as I think Billy Connelly said anyone who wants to be one should automatically be barred from doing so), but the public-schoolboy-career-politician network in Westminster are the worst kind. Removing them, and the House of Lords, from any political landscape would be a step forward in itself.

the_red_sheep

The short answer to the “How much oil’s left” question is of course no one really knows, although as anyone who lives in Aberdeen or works in the industry will tell you, it was meant to have run out several times by now.

These two articles which feature Professor Alex Kemp of the University of Aberdeen who has been the leading Petroleum Economist in the North Sea for more or less the lifespan of the industry would in my opinion by the closest to the truth, many of the other reports have commercial, political and personal slants which somewhat cloud them.

Scottish independence: Expert Alex Kemp predicts 99 further North Sea oil & gas finds

Prof. Alex Kemp: 'North Sea Oil to Benefit UK Economy Beyond 2060'

Also, the export value of the oil and gas service industry in and around Aberdeen (and further afield) shouldn’t be ignored, it currently stands at around $11bn. It is of world class standard, and indeed world leading in many areas, and is forecast to continue to continue to grow.

mikewot

In order to become the master, the politician poses as the servant.
Charles de Gaulle

A politician is an arse upon which everyone has sat except a man.
e. e. cummings

One of the reasons people hate politics is that truth is rarely a politician's objective. Election and power are.
Cal Thomas

The magician and the politician have much in common: they both have to draw our attention away from what they are really doing.
Ben Okri

shiva

Politicians are politicians regardless of party. THAT is the real issue we all need to address!