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This probably explains why UKIP is gaining support

This probably explains why UKIP is gaining support

Old May 11th 2014, 12:36 pm
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Default This probably explains why UKIP is gaining support

The British public have factually-incorrect attitudes about almost all the major issues - and the really sad thing is that despite the title of the article, it's not a spoof.

British public wrong about nearly everything
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Old May 11th 2014, 8:10 pm
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Default Re: This probably explains why UKIP is gaining support

Originally Posted by Eeyore View Post
The British public have factually-incorrect attitudes about almost all the major issues - and the really sad thing is that despite the title of the article, it's not a spoof.

British public wrong about nearly everything
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Old May 12th 2014, 4:29 am
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Default Re: This probably explains why UKIP is gaining support

Yes, that's probably about your level.
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Old May 12th 2014, 4:50 am
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Default Re: This probably explains why UKIP is gaining support

Originally Posted by Eeyore View Post
Yes, that's probably about your level.
Pretty much, yes.
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Old May 12th 2014, 7:08 am
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Default Re: This probably explains why UKIP is gaining support

Originally Posted by Eeyore View Post
The British public have factually-incorrect attitudes about almost all the major issues - and the really sad thing is that despite the title of the article, it's not a spoof.

British public wrong about nearly everything
Not sure I'm surprised. If I was asked what % of girls under 16 are up the duff, I'd have no idea where to start...
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Old May 12th 2014, 7:13 am
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Default Re: This probably explains why UKIP is gaining support

It's about perceptions. If you read many of the papers you'd get the impression that the country is over run with dodgy foreigners, full of criminals and is a social wasteland and people take that on board even if it has nothing to do with their own experience.

I think this summarises it well:

"Hetan Shah, executive director of the Royal Statistical Society, said: "Our data poses real challenges for policymakers. How can you develop good policy when public perceptions can be so out of kilter with the evidence?

"We need to see three things happen. First, politicians need to be better at talking about the real state of affairs of the country, rather than spinning the numbers. Secondly, the media has to try and genuinely illuminate issues, rather than use statistics to sensationalise."



Sensationalism sells newspapers. General good news and facts doesn't.

Maybe the people do get the government they deserve?
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Old May 12th 2014, 7:16 am
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Default Re: This probably explains why UKIP is gaining support

Originally Posted by Eeyore View Post
The British public have factually-incorrect attitudes about almost all the major issues - and the really sad thing is that despite the title of the article, it's not a spoof.

British public wrong about nearly everything
So there's one item in that list that relates to UKIP (immigration). With most of the other parties spouting about benefit fraud, immigration and crime, your assertion that ignorance is pushing voters towards UKIP is ill-founded. You're the one who's adding the "lies, damned lies and" bit.

As an aside, I wonder who they actually polled. 15% of girls under 16 get pregnant? Who actually thinks that? Or were the questions put in such a way that that was the most obvious choice? "Which is closer to the truth: only one in a million girls under 16 gets pregnant, or 15%?"
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Old May 12th 2014, 7:30 am
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Default Re: This probably explains why UKIP is gaining support

Originally Posted by Bahtatboy View Post
So there's one item in that list that relates to UKIP (immigration). With most of the other parties spouting about benefit fraud, immigration and crime, your assertion that ignorance is pushing voters towards UKIP is ill-founded. You're the one who's adding the "lies, damned lies and" bit.

As an aside, I wonder who they actually polled. 15% of girls under 16 get pregnant? Who actually thinks that? Or were the questions put in such a way that that was the most obvious choice? "Which is closer to the truth: only one in a million girls under 16 gets pregnant, or 15%?"
A lot will also depend on just where people live, ask the number of immigrants question in, asy, Leicester, then you will get a totally different answer to say asking it in Gloucester. Ask about teen pregnancies in a rundown, deprived are and you will get a totally different answer to asking it in, say, Chipping Camden. It's all about perceptions based on just where you live.
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Old May 12th 2014, 7:45 am
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Default Re: This probably explains why UKIP is gaining support

This was a MORI poll, a well known pollsters so it isn't unreasonable to assume that they used a representative sample of people.

The research, carried out by Ipsos Mori from a phone survey of 1,015 people aged 16 to 75

You can find it on their website if you want as all polls can be found on there. This dates back to July 2013.


I think it's misleading to focus on whether this is why more people support UKIP or not, but it is interesting how wrong many people's perceptions are.


EDIT> A few keystrokes and tah-dah... http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpu...t-reality.aspx Methodology notes available.

Last edited by Meow; May 12th 2014 at 7:50 am.
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Old May 12th 2014, 7:50 am
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Default Re: This probably explains why UKIP is gaining support

Originally Posted by Meow View Post
This was a MORI poll, a well known pollsters so it isn't unreasonable to assume that they used a representative sample of people.

The research, carried out by Ipsos Mori from a phone survey of 1,015 people aged 16 to 75

You can find it on their website if you want as all polls can be found on there. This dates back to July 2013.


I think it's misleading to focus on whether this is why more people support UKIP or not, but it is interesting how wrong many people's perceptions are.
A lot of people will vote UKIP knowing it won't make a bit of difference to the running of the country per se, but just to fire a warning shot over the bows of the main parties. Lets face it, even if everyone voted UKIP in the Euro elections, then the lives of UK people will NOT be affected, as UKIP shouldn't take up their seats in the EU parliament if their party name means anything, but of course they will just to get the big bucks that EU parliament members get, and the free travel to and from Brussels.
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Old May 12th 2014, 7:53 am
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Default Re: This probably explains why UKIP is gaining support

Originally Posted by Meow View Post
This was a MORI poll, a well known pollsters so it isn't unreasonable to assume that they used a representative sample of people.

The research, carried out by Ipsos Mori from a phone survey of 1,015 people aged 16 to 75

You can find it on their website if you want as all polls can be found on there. This dates back to July 2013.


I think it's misleading to focus on whether this is why more people support UKIP or not, but it is interesting how wrong many people's perceptions are.
Yes, I did hesitate when considering their credentials. And I agree with your conclusions. Which raises the question that, if the poll was truly representative, why so many people are so wide of the mark on some of the big issues. The answer must lie with the media, since they are the only source of data for the vast majority of people. That, and people's wish for some things to be true...
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Old May 12th 2014, 7:55 am
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Default Re: This probably explains why UKIP is gaining support

Originally Posted by mikelincs View Post
A lot of people will vote UKIP knowing it won't make a bit of difference to the running of the country per se, but just to fire a warning shot over the bows of the main parties. Lets face it, even if everyone voted UKIP in the Euro elections, then the lives of UK people will NOT be affected, as UKIP shouldn't take up their seats in the EU parliament if their party name means anything, but of course they will just to get the big bucks that EU parliament members get, and the free travel to and from Brussels.
I've said essentially the same thing several times across different threads. The European elections are just not seen as relevant in the same way General Elections are.

That kind of behaviour by UKIP, or any MEP, is wrong and hypocritical.
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Old May 12th 2014, 7:57 am
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Default Re: This probably explains why UKIP is gaining support

Originally Posted by mikelincs View Post
A lot of people will vote UKIP knowing it won't make a bit of difference to the running of the country per se, but just to fire a warning shot over the bows of the main parties. Lets face it, even if everyone voted UKIP in the Euro elections, then the lives of UK people will NOT be affected, as UKIP shouldn't take up their seats in the EU parliament if their party name means anything, but of course they will just to get the big bucks that EU parliament members get, and the free travel to and from Brussels.
I don't share your scepticism. Farage is there because its better to be inside the tent pissing out rather than outside pissing in. If (and yes, its a bloody big if) there is a large number of UKIP EMP's could they cause instability in the European Parliament by constantly rocking the boat? I don't know enough about how it works--Farage's tirades are good fun, but I'm now aware that they actually make a difference.
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Old May 12th 2014, 1:09 pm
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Default Re: This probably explains why UKIP is gaining support

Originally Posted by Bahtatboy View Post
Which raises the question that, if the poll was truly representative, why so many people are so wide of the mark on some of the big issues. The answer must lie with the media
Absolutely. The likes of the Sun and the Daily Mail are among the biggest culprits of course, because TV manages to be much less sensationalist about these issues. The papers have been particularly keen to swallow all the bullshit the Tories have been spreading about benefit cheats over the last 5 years or so too, which is probably a big part of the reason why so many people are so wide of the mark about how much of a problem benefit fraud actually is.

Social media plays a major role these days too, with people automatically sharing all the ill-informed and often blatantly false memes about immigration, benefit scroungers and so on that crop up on Facebook all the time.

Last edited by Eeyore; May 12th 2014 at 1:12 pm.
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Old May 12th 2014, 9:17 pm
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Default Re: This probably explains why UKIP is gaining support

Originally Posted by Eeyore View Post
Absolutely. The likes of the Sun and the Daily Mail are among the biggest culprits of course, because TV manages to be much less sensationalist about these issues. The papers have been particularly keen to swallow all the bullshit the Tories have been spreading about benefit cheats over the last 5 years or so too, which is probably a big part of the reason why so many people are so wide of the mark about how much of a problem benefit fraud actually is.

Social media plays a major role these days too, with people automatically sharing all the ill-informed and often blatantly false memes about immigration, benefit scroungers and so on that crop up on Facebook all the time.
I know I'll get shot for being a leftie Guardian type etc...

But this seems to illustrate some of this (and other) thread(s) up quite well:-

The random Muslim scare story generator: separating fact from fiction
Halal meat is on every menu; sharia law is taking over; the niqab is undermining the nation.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...l-sharia-niqab
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