Predictions for 2018

Old Jan 4th 2018, 6:48 am
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Default Predictions for 2018

Anyone want to take a shot? What will happen between now and 31 December 2018?
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Old Jan 4th 2018, 7:45 am
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Default Re: Predictions for 2018

Trump will get a bigger button, use it, korea [both countries] will then go up in a big fireball, apple will then make more money [wonder if they made the button?] America and China will compete to pay to rebuild korea, and their economies will grow further.
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Old Jan 4th 2018, 7:46 am
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Default Re: Predictions for 2018

I will remain a steady greatness level in Q1 and improve slowly through Q2 to a new level of greatness by Q3 and Q4.
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Old Jan 4th 2018, 7:49 am
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Default Re: Predictions for 2018

A continuation of the exodus of western expats from Dubai and the greater GCC
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Old Jan 4th 2018, 8:31 am
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Default Re: Predictions for 2018

Originally Posted by TheShed View Post
A continuation of the exodus of western expats from Dubai and the greater GCC
Probably true.
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Old Jan 4th 2018, 8:48 am
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Default Re: Predictions for 2018

Here's me going against the tide. I keep hearing Dubai is going into recession. Am I doing the right thing?
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Old Jan 4th 2018, 8:52 am
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Default Re: Predictions for 2018

Originally Posted by littlejimmy View Post
Here's me going against the tide. I keep hearing Dubai is going into recession. Am I doing the right thing?
If your project is solid you should be fine.

It's not a case of the entire western expat community up and leaving in the next few years and no new ones coming, but a long term decline of the population over time and changing demographics within the expat groups. Westerners are being replaced with cheaper South Asians in many industries (50k/month western engineer replaced with a 30k month Indian engineer). Younger and single westerners increasingly preferred over older, married with family westerners as they can be had cheaper. Eastern Europeans and South Americans (do they count as westerners?) taking up an increasing share of the professional population as they're cheaper.
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Old Jan 4th 2018, 9:03 am
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Default Re: Predictions for 2018

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH View Post
If your project is solid you should be fine.

It's not a case of the entire western expat community up and leaving in the next few years and no new ones coming, but a long term decline of the population over time and changing demographics within the expat groups. Westerners are being replaced with cheaper South Asians in many industries (50k/month western engineer replaced with a 30k month Indian engineer). Younger and single westerners increasingly preferred over older, married with family westerners as they can be had cheaper. Eastern Europeans and South Americans (do they count as westerners?) taking up an increasing share of the professional population as they're cheaper.
Definitely true.

Why pay for an expat, his wife and 4 snotty kids when you could get exactly the same on married or single status only? Get a younger version with a bit less experience and save even more.
We're under pressure to hire more sub-con type PMs and Cost guys instead of always hunting / plumping for the expat.
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Old Jan 4th 2018, 9:04 am
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Default Re: Predictions for 2018

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH View Post
If your project is solid you should be fine.

It's not a case of the entire western expat community up and leaving in the next few years and no new ones coming, but a long term decline of the population over time and changing demographics within the expat groups. Westerners are being replaced with cheaper South Asians in many industries (50k/month western engineer replaced with a 30k month Indian engineer). Younger and single westerners increasingly preferred over older, married with family westerners as they can be had cheaper. Eastern Europeans and South Americans (do they count as westerners?) taking up an increasing share of the professional population as they're cheaper.

Well I assume the project is solid because they're recruiting for it, and I believe the company I'm coming to work for have work all over the region. It might work to my benefit anyway with rents coming down, etc. Gotta look at the positives!
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Old Jan 4th 2018, 9:12 am
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Default Re: Predictions for 2018

Originally Posted by Scamp View Post
Definitely true.

Why pay for an expat, his wife and 4 snotty kids when you could get exactly the same on married or single status only? Get a younger version with a bit less experience and save even more.
We're under pressure to hire more sub-con type PMs and Cost guys instead of always hunting / plumping for the expat.
Yep. School fees are a major headache for companies these days. Increases the overhead, fees always going up every year and there's the bizarreness of having two employees on equal footing, equal experience, equal salary, but one costing the company a lot more because he has three kids and the other doesn't have any kids.

The long run scenario for westerners in Dubai is a small group of highly paid senior executives, C-level, senior experienced PMs, people opening up new branch offices or stores and so on, and a larger group of young/single westerners who come to party and play in their 20s, working in a range of industries. But the "middle class" is rapidly disappearing.
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Old Jan 4th 2018, 9:13 am
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Default Re: Predictions for 2018

Originally Posted by TheShed View Post
A continuation of the exodus of western expats from Dubai and the greater GCC
Is this really true though, or is it more a question of ongoing turnover? The longer you are here the more you will see people you know leaving - as we all eventually have to. Meanwhile they keep being replaced by younger, thinner, dumber models - that you don't know and are, let's face it, too old and decrepit to ever meet. They will in turn go through the cycle...
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Old Jan 4th 2018, 9:15 am
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Default Re: Predictions for 2018

Originally Posted by Miss Ann Thrope View Post
Is this really true though, or is it more a question of ongoing turnover? The longer you are here the more you will see people you know leaving - as we all eventually have to. Meanwhile they keep being replaced by younger, thinner, dumber, cheaper models - that you don't know and are, let's face it, too old and decrepit to ever meet. They will in turn go through the cycle...
I forgot one critical word...
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Old Jan 4th 2018, 9:17 am
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Default Re: Predictions for 2018

Originally Posted by Miss Ann Thrope View Post
Is this really true though, or is it more a question of ongoing turnover? The longer you are here the more you will see people you know leaving - as we all eventually have to. Meanwhile they keep being replaced by younger, thinner, dumber models - that you don't know and are, let's face it, too old and decrepit to ever meet. They will in turn go through the cycle...
Exodus might be the wrong word while changing demographics is better. I referenced this in earlier posts.

Also, methinks we'd all be shocked if we realised how many westerners we see out and about in Dubai are actually tourists or just visiting family/friends.
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Old Jan 4th 2018, 9:17 am
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Default Re: Predictions for 2018

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH View Post
Yep. School fees are a major headache for companies these days. Increases the overhead, fees always going up every year and there's the bizarreness of having two employees on equal footing, equal experience, equal salary, but one earning the company a lot more because he has three kids and the other doesn't have any kids.

The long run scenario for westerners in Dubai is a small group of highly paid senior executives, C-level, senior experienced PMs, people opening up new branch offices or stores and so on, and a larger group of young/single westerners who come to party and play in their 20s, working in a range of industries. But the "middle class" is rapidly disappearing.
Made an adjustment (costing is correct but I prefer to play it the other way).

I've said for ages the middle level of single income of 40-45k, wife and kids is a really tough place to be from what I'm seeing and can work out. It's do-able of course but I think the savings take a hit and it's hard work.

Gotta be 50-55-60-65 to have a good family life WITH savings. At which point you're paying 120-160k GBP Nett (206-280k gross) for what's probably a bang average PM.

Anyway. It is what it is and it's about pounding the man for all the pennies you can get whilst trying to remain indispensable.
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Old Jan 4th 2018, 9:20 am
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Default Re: Predictions for 2018

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH View Post
Exodus might be the wrong word while changing demographics is better. I referenced this in earlier posts.

Also, methinks we'd all be shocked if we realised how many westerners we see out and about in Dubai are actually tourists or just visiting family/friends.
Pretty sure those in my office are not on holiday or visiting friends.
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