Pound on 11 December
Dec 12th 2018, 5:11 am
#46
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Re: Pound on 11 December
You have to go back a step again though. The UK decided to leave. The UK is punishing the UK. Britain will be successful outside the EU, that's a given because we all know that it's within the capabilities of the nation and the people to find success - I genuinely believe this. Even if it takes a long time, a way will be found to be somewhat noteworthy again....whether to global leader status? Dunno, maybe we'll just continue to dine out on our history and perceived importance?
I don't care what you or other people call the EU, cartel, expenses club, unelected *****, bureaucrats in Brussels. Who cares? I do disagree that the EU is not notable as a political entity....I think that's a bit odd, the EU's problem is that it's above a group which includes very powerful and notable individual parts. Brexit isn't the EU's fault is it? It was a decision made by the UK to leave. The onus isn't on Brussels to make life easy for the UK, or to pay us off or to give us special dispensation and access to all the goodies that membership pays for? We can't still be thinking like this can we? The finances of Italy
...I definitely blame the EU for that and not their monumental debt levels that they seem to want to avoid and blame everyone else for, or their inability to accept that such an aging population (like Japan for example) would be aided by migration (like Japan are heavily promoting at the moment, very big move) to actually start filling jobs and generating some worth. **** it, let them leave the Euro, set up a hugely devalued Lira and then try and pay some of those debts off! It would literally make the task many times harder. It's laughable to think all problems stem from Brussels, it's also laughable to think that the EU doesn't try to help nations. No, I'm not saying it's a perfect system or perfect group of people doing a perfect job but it's like pointing the finger at any government above you, it's just far too easy to blame everyone else. Individual responsibility doesn't evaporate when you're in the EU or any government or organisation or treaty or agreement, countries must remain responsible for their own bottom lines and provisions of the state for their people. The EU's work in bringing poorer European nations up to 'better' (can't think of the right word without it sounding condescending so apologies for this) levels and standards of living - that's no bad thing and whilst no, I don't think the UK or Germany or France should be ultimately responsible for bringing Romania into the 21st Century, but the work needs to be done otherwise we leave people outside a wall completely. It's not just 'poorer' nations who benefit, let's go back to Italy....the ECB has done a huge favour by continuing to buy Italian government bonds, but they can't do that forever. They stop? Italy has some potentially serious problems, everyone blames the EU...despite the fact they've been doing this for years and said it would have to slow down soon. It's mental. Italy's economy is the same size as the UK's I believe....that's huge, too big to fail? Can't sort it out for themselves? Germany can't be responsible for saving every country which can't be trusted with a coin purse.
Compare the EU to the US, they're such vast places with many many people. The US however is one country with local identity at state level but ultimately one set of rules and one national weight to get behind. The EU isn't one country so how it competes as a collective against the might of one organised gigantic nation is actually quite impressive. Trying to get Portugal, Denmark and Italy to all work together towards 'European' goals is not going to be easy is it? I think it's quite impressive that for a half-in club where the commitment is clearly not total, the EU have had more quarters of higher GDP growth than the US since mid 2014.
Anyway. You and I will continue to disagree over this but I enjoy the chat about it and your opinions, so thanks for continuing to post.
I don't care what you or other people call the EU, cartel, expenses club, unelected *****, bureaucrats in Brussels. Who cares? I do disagree that the EU is not notable as a political entity....I think that's a bit odd, the EU's problem is that it's above a group which includes very powerful and notable individual parts. Brexit isn't the EU's fault is it? It was a decision made by the UK to leave. The onus isn't on Brussels to make life easy for the UK, or to pay us off or to give us special dispensation and access to all the goodies that membership pays for? We can't still be thinking like this can we? The finances of Italy
...I definitely blame the EU for that and not their monumental debt levels that they seem to want to avoid and blame everyone else for, or their inability to accept that such an aging population (like Japan for example) would be aided by migration (like Japan are heavily promoting at the moment, very big move) to actually start filling jobs and generating some worth. **** it, let them leave the Euro, set up a hugely devalued Lira and then try and pay some of those debts off! It would literally make the task many times harder. It's laughable to think all problems stem from Brussels, it's also laughable to think that the EU doesn't try to help nations. No, I'm not saying it's a perfect system or perfect group of people doing a perfect job but it's like pointing the finger at any government above you, it's just far too easy to blame everyone else. Individual responsibility doesn't evaporate when you're in the EU or any government or organisation or treaty or agreement, countries must remain responsible for their own bottom lines and provisions of the state for their people. The EU's work in bringing poorer European nations up to 'better' (can't think of the right word without it sounding condescending so apologies for this) levels and standards of living - that's no bad thing and whilst no, I don't think the UK or Germany or France should be ultimately responsible for bringing Romania into the 21st Century, but the work needs to be done otherwise we leave people outside a wall completely. It's not just 'poorer' nations who benefit, let's go back to Italy....the ECB has done a huge favour by continuing to buy Italian government bonds, but they can't do that forever. They stop? Italy has some potentially serious problems, everyone blames the EU...despite the fact they've been doing this for years and said it would have to slow down soon. It's mental. Italy's economy is the same size as the UK's I believe....that's huge, too big to fail? Can't sort it out for themselves? Germany can't be responsible for saving every country which can't be trusted with a coin purse.Compare the EU to the US, they're such vast places with many many people. The US however is one country with local identity at state level but ultimately one set of rules and one national weight to get behind. The EU isn't one country so how it competes as a collective against the might of one organised gigantic nation is actually quite impressive. Trying to get Portugal, Denmark and Italy to all work together towards 'European' goals is not going to be easy is it? I think it's quite impressive that for a half-in club where the commitment is clearly not total, the EU have had more quarters of higher GDP growth than the US since mid 2014.
Anyway. You and I will continue to disagree over this but I enjoy the chat about it and your opinions, so thanks for continuing to post.
Anyway, looks like there may be a VONC against Mrs May soon... we will see. Will she survive? A week ago I'd have said yes, but not so sure today. Moods are changing rapidly.
If she goes, who will be the next PM? I bet it'll be someone surprising and unexpected (not Boris, I used to like him but he was absolutely terrible as Foreign Secretary and I don't think he's the right man for the job).
Dec 12th 2018, 5:17 am
#47
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Re: Pound on 11 December
Im waiting for a pullback and then shorting again - this is like shooting fish in a barrell
Dec 12th 2018, 5:33 am
#48
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Re: Pound on 11 December
Anyway, looks like there may be a VONC against Mrs May soon... we will see. Will she survive? A week ago I'd have said yes, but not so sure today. Moods are changing rapidly.
If she goes, who will be the next PM? I bet it'll be someone surprising and unexpected (not Boris, I used to like him but he was absolutely terrible as Foreign Secretary and I don't think he's the right man for the job).[/QUOTE]
I'd love to see some odds on the next leader ( I think VONC will come from 1922 before the weekend or Labour will launch it through parliament instead). I reckon Amber Rudd, Jacob R-M, and David Davis have got to be favorites (in that order) at the moment. I really don't give a toss if May goes - whilst I liked her at the start, she has been incredibly weak and totally screwed up the whole thing. Her very first mistake was the general election which weakened her from the start.
If she goes, who will be the next PM? I bet it'll be someone surprising and unexpected (not Boris, I used to like him but he was absolutely terrible as Foreign Secretary and I don't think he's the right man for the job).[/QUOTE]
I'd love to see some odds on the next leader ( I think VONC will come from 1922 before the weekend or Labour will launch it through parliament instead). I reckon Amber Rudd, Jacob R-M, and David Davis have got to be favorites (in that order) at the moment. I really don't give a toss if May goes - whilst I liked her at the start, she has been incredibly weak and totally screwed up the whole thing. Her very first mistake was the general election which weakened her from the start.
Dec 12th 2018, 6:36 am
#49
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Re: Pound on 11 December
Some odds:
UK to apply to rejoin by 2027 - 5/6
No Brexit Deal to be agreed before 1st April 2019 - 0/1 (wow)
Sterling to reach 1=1 with Euro in 2018 - 9/1
UK to revoke Article 50 before 30/3/19 - 5/1
Theresa May exit date:
2018 6/4
2019 4/5
2020 or later 4/1
House of Commons Vote to Pass
No - 1/33 Yes 10/1
Next Prime Minister:
Corbyn 7/2
BOJO 5/1
Dominic Raab 6/1
Sajid Javid 6/1
Mickey Gove 8/1
Jezza Hunt 10s
Rees-Mogg 10s
UK to apply to rejoin by 2027 - 5/6
No Brexit Deal to be agreed before 1st April 2019 - 0/1 (wow)
Sterling to reach 1=1 with Euro in 2018 - 9/1
UK to revoke Article 50 before 30/3/19 - 5/1
Theresa May exit date:
2018 6/4
2019 4/5
2020 or later 4/1
House of Commons Vote to Pass
No - 1/33 Yes 10/1
Next Prime Minister:
Corbyn 7/2
BOJO 5/1
Dominic Raab 6/1
Sajid Javid 6/1
Mickey Gove 8/1
Jezza Hunt 10s
Rees-Mogg 10s
Dec 12th 2018, 6:51 am
#50
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Re: Pound on 11 December
Well, it's formal now.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46535739
UK Prime Minister Theresa May will face a vote of no confidence in her leadership later on Wednesday
What a week. Good lord. No. What a year. What a two year period. What a two and a half year period. Actually, let's go back to the Scottish referendum and start with that too.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46535739
UK Prime Minister Theresa May will face a vote of no confidence in her leadership later on Wednesday
What a week. Good lord. No. What a year. What a two year period. What a two and a half year period. Actually, let's go back to the Scottish referendum and start with that too.
Dec 12th 2018, 6:55 am
#51
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Re: Pound on 11 December
Pound's dropped again (just to stick with the original theme of the thread).
Dec 12th 2018, 7:14 am
#52
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Posts: 1,157
Re: Pound on 11 December
Some odds:
UK to apply to rejoin by 2027 - 5/6
No Brexit Deal to be agreed before 1st April 2019 - 0/1 (wow)
Sterling to reach 1=1 with Euro in 2018 - 9/1
UK to revoke Article 50 before 30/3/19 - 5/1
Theresa May exit date:
2018 6/4
2019 4/5
2020 or later 4/1
House of Commons Vote to Pass
No - 1/33 Yes 10/1
Next Prime Minister:
Corbyn 7/2
BOJO 5/1
Dominic Raab 6/1
Sajid Javid 6/1
Mickey Gove 8/1
Jezza Hunt 10s
Rees-Mogg 10s
UK to apply to rejoin by 2027 - 5/6
No Brexit Deal to be agreed before 1st April 2019 - 0/1 (wow)
Sterling to reach 1=1 with Euro in 2018 - 9/1
UK to revoke Article 50 before 30/3/19 - 5/1
Theresa May exit date:
2018 6/4
2019 4/5
2020 or later 4/1
House of Commons Vote to Pass
No - 1/33 Yes 10/1
Next Prime Minister:
Corbyn 7/2
BOJO 5/1
Dominic Raab 6/1
Sajid Javid 6/1
Mickey Gove 8/1
Jezza Hunt 10s
Rees-Mogg 10s
Wow I'm really shocked that Amber Rudd is not in that list.
Dec 12th 2018, 7:18 am
#53
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Joined: Jul 2009
Location: West Kensington, Dubai
Posts: 1,157
Re: Pound on 11 December
Well, it's formal now.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46535739
UK Prime Minister Theresa May will face a vote of no confidence in her leadership later on Wednesday
What a week. Good lord. No. What a year. What a two year period. What a two and a half year period. Actually, let's go back to the Scottish referendum and start with that too.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46535739
UK Prime Minister Theresa May will face a vote of no confidence in her leadership later on Wednesday
What a week. Good lord. No. What a year. What a two year period. What a two and a half year period. Actually, let's go back to the Scottish referendum and start with that too.
GBP/USD below 1.25 now - Looks like the markets are beginning to price a no deal brexit.
Dec 12th 2018, 7:19 am
#54
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Re: Pound on 11 December
She's crippled by that she only has a majority of a few hundred in her seat.
I don't know how the party will coalesce around a new leader. It's still split between Remain/Leave wings and Rudd is perhaps too closely aligned with the Remain side and won't be trusted by the Brexiteers.
I don't know how the party will coalesce around a new leader. It's still split between Remain/Leave wings and Rudd is perhaps too closely aligned with the Remain side and won't be trusted by the Brexiteers.
