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-   -   Post Summer Dubai (https://britishexpats.com/forum/sand-pit-116/post-summer-dubai-916679/)

Scamp Aug 30th 2018 6:42 am

Post Summer Dubai
 
So, is everyone back to it now?
Back at work?
Manage to have a good summer?
Family back? Survive being alone?

Things seem quite sleepy still, I managed to drive along SZR the other night at rush hour and not struggle too much. Golf course was empty at the weekend as well.

Work seems slow, we keep getting snippets of positive and then boom, project cancelled. Ironically the snippets and booms come from the same client.

Some unbelievable deals on buying property are being thrown around by brands you don't expect to get deals from - some go up to 10yrs no annual fees, 5yrs no mortgage payments etc etc etc.

Who is busy?
What do we think to the end of the year?

Millhouse Aug 30th 2018 7:43 am

Re: Post Summer Dubai
 

Originally Posted by Scamp (Post 12556385)
So, is everyone back to it now?
Back at work?
Manage to have a good summer?
Family back? Survive being alone?

Things seem quite sleepy still, I managed to drive along SZR the other night at rush hour and not struggle too much. Golf course was empty at the weekend as well.

Work seems slow, we keep getting snippets of positive and then boom, project cancelled. Ironically the snippets and booms come from the same client.

Some unbelievable deals on buying property are being thrown around by brands you don't expect to get deals from - some go up to 10yrs no annual fees, 5yrs no mortgage payments etc etc etc.

Who is busy?
What do we think to the end of the year?

Schools back on Sunday - I think the city will fill up this weekend...

The house offers are nuts. I'm actually considering buying something simply on the basis that I'm going to be here a little longer, it's much cheaper than anything in the UK on a sq.ft basis and if in 5 years it's worth nothing I can write it off and it'll cost me around the same as I was paying in rent 4 years ago.

Scamp Aug 30th 2018 9:12 am

Re: Post Summer Dubai
 

Originally Posted by Millhouse (Post 12556410)
Schools back on Sunday - I think the city will fill up this weekend...

The house offers are nuts. I'm actually considering buying something simply on the basis that I'm going to be here a little longer, it's much cheaper than anything in the UK on a sq.ft basis and if in 5 years it's worth nothing I can write it off and it'll cost me around the same as I was paying in rent 4 years ago.

I'm with you there.

Close to 650k in rent since I've lived here (i bet some people's calculations will be horrifying). That's over half what the same apartment would have cost if I bought it on day one.

Millhouse Aug 30th 2018 9:18 am

Re: Post Summer Dubai
 

Originally Posted by Scamp (Post 12556445)
I'm with you there.

Close to 650k in rent since I've lived here (i bet some people's calculations will be horrifying). That's over half what the same apartment would have cost if I bought it on day one.

Close but not quite. You'd have "lost" around 400k in interest on a mortgage over the same period, so your net loss is only 250k... I'm at around 1.6m in rent paid to date....

My purchase budget is 1.7m. The mortgage on that is around 85k a year, my rent in 2012 was 180k - my deposit and fees is 450k. So, basically over 5 year the cost will be (85 * 5 + 500 = 920). This compares to my 2012 rent of (180* 5 = 900). So basically, even if I walk away from it in 5 years time, it would have cost me what I used to pay in rent for the same place. I survived in 2012 quite happily and in fact I earn more now, so nothing to lose.

Scamp Aug 30th 2018 9:39 am

Re: Post Summer Dubai
 

Originally Posted by Millhouse (Post 12556449)
Close but not quite. You'd have "lost" around 400k in interest on a mortgage over the same period, so your net loss is only 250k... I'm at around 1.6m in rent paid to date....

My purchase budget is 1.7m. The mortgage on that is around 85k a year, my rent in 2012 was 180k - my deposit and fees is 450k. So, basically over 5 year the cost will be (85 * 5 + 500 = 920). This compares to my 2012 rent of (180* 5 = 900). So basically, even if I walk away from it in 5 years time, it would have cost me what I used to pay in rent for the same place. I survived in 2012 quite happily and in fact I earn more now, so nothing to lose.

Sorry, I should have put the caveat that I was ignoring interest.

Does the 450 / 85 include annual maintenance / fees / insurances etc or just land department / mortgage fees at set up?

weasel decentral Aug 30th 2018 9:51 am

Re: Post Summer Dubai
 

Originally Posted by Millhouse (Post 12556449)
Close but not quite. You'd have "lost" around 400k in interest on a mortgage over the same period, so your net loss is only 250k... I'm at around 1.6m in rent paid to date....

My purchase budget is 1.7m. The mortgage on that is around 85k a year, my rent in 2012 was 180k - my deposit and fees is 450k. So, basically over 5 year the cost will be (85 * 5 + 500 = 920). This compares to my 2012 rent of (180* 5 = 900). So basically, even if I walk away from it in 5 years time, it would have cost me what I used to pay in rent for the same place. I survived in 2012 quite happily and in fact I earn more now, so nothing to lose.

Assuming everyone is doing the same calculation, I'm guessing there should be a huge glut of rental properties on the market and in fact the rent over the next few years will drop considerably so there is that to lose.

Scamp Aug 30th 2018 9:58 am

Re: Post Summer Dubai
 

Originally Posted by weasel decentral (Post 12556466)
Assuming everyone is doing the same calculation, I'm guessing there should be a huge glut of rental properties on the market and in fact the rent over the next few years will drop considerably so there is that to lose.

That's the opportunity cost though I suppose.

The way to win is for the market to tank but you be very, very secure.

Then you wake up.

Millhouse Aug 30th 2018 2:10 pm

Re: Post Summer Dubai
 

Originally Posted by weasel decentral (Post 12556466)
Assuming everyone is doing the same calculation, I'm guessing there should be a huge glut of rental properties on the market and in fact the rent over the next few years will drop considerably so there is that to lose.

that’s not a function in my mind - you are also assuming no population growth etc. Remember there are a billion Indians queuing to come due to a tanking currency.

also, I'm not talking the market up. I fully expect to see it drop in value and am working towards a c.20% drop. A greater concern that I can't fully price for is the off-plan coming to market in about 3 years where sellers have much much lower cost prices than today's new stock.

Me 2.0 Sep 1st 2018 3:34 pm

Re: Post Summer Dubai
 
Interesting about the Dubai property deals at the moment. I’m considering whether to buy a flat in City Walk as a buy to let investment. Thoughts?

Millhouse Sep 1st 2018 4:00 pm

Re: Post Summer Dubai
 

Originally Posted by Me 2.0 (Post 12557336)
Interesting about the Dubai property deals at the moment. I’m considering whether to buy a flat in City Walk as a buy to let investment. Thoughts?

im inclined to say don’t do it. The rental yields on prime flats is too low while the service charges are too high.


Me 2.0 Sep 1st 2018 5:01 pm

Re: Post Summer Dubai
 
Good location though. Can’t imagine they’ll build a better one.

Scamp Sep 2nd 2018 5:10 am

Re: Post Summer Dubai
 

Originally Posted by Me 2.0 (Post 12557367)
Good location though. Can’t imagine they’ll build a better one.

They come with very high rental prices it seems, which is probably out of alignment with what else you can get of similar size etc.

Also, the traffic there means you'd never actually get home.

Me 2.0 Sep 2nd 2018 8:49 am

Re: Post Summer Dubai
 
It would be as a BTL.

Scamp Sep 2nd 2018 8:53 am

Re: Post Summer Dubai
 

Originally Posted by Me 2.0 (Post 12557523)
It would be as a BTL.

Yeah and it's very expensive rent for what it is around there - ie: potentially seen as not great value for money from the renters perspective.
The traffic round there can be atrocious - ie: not very good from the renters perspective.

Me 2.0 Sep 2nd 2018 10:16 am

Re: Post Summer Dubai
 
Gotcha. Cheers.


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