Post-Brexit Britain

Old Jun 27th 2016, 6:37 am
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Default Post-Brexit Britain

Maybe time for a new thread now that the referendum is over and done with.

We are at the cusp of a new political alignment. Not political ideologies (which is a different topic) but the restructuring of the relationship between the citizen and the state, and the state and the rest of the world.

In this thread it might be fun to speculate on the potential relationships Britain could develop with the EU in a post-Brexit world. This is my (fantasy) scenario of how the withdrawal happens and what it's replaced with:

Britain invokes Article 50 and formally withdraws from the EU, as a full member, but a new treaty is instantly put into place that introduces Britain as an affiliate non-voting "partner" of the EU. Under this scenario the following would happen:

1. Britain retains access to the single market with the following caveat: British businesses that trade with the EU continue to comply with the required EU regulations for trading with the EU (no different from the US or Canada trading with the EU). British businesses that do not trade with the EU are not required to comply with the same regulations. Businesses that trade both within and outside the EU will have the choice of either complying with all EU regulations regardless of where they trade, or only ensuring that their trade with the EU complies with EU regulations. It's up to them.

2. Restrictions are placed on free movement of EU nationals into the UK. EU nationals can come and work in the UK provided they have a valid job offer. As long as they have a job in the UK, they can remain in the UK on a migrant visa. If they do not work, they must leave the UK. While in the UK as a working person, they will have access to the NHS and other social benefits, but those are not transferable to their home countries. While in the UK they can vote in local council elections but not parliamentary elections or referendums. Any children born in the UK to migrant parents will not be granted British residency or citizenship. Upon leaving the UK, their contribution to the NI will be transferred to their home country's pension scheme.

The migrant visa will not constitute an application for permanent residency, nor will the duration of their stay in the UK count towards one. They can, however, formally apply for permanent residency and eventual citizenship but they will be treated no differently from any non-EU immigrant's application. In short, EU workers in the UK will be treated as temporary working migrants (this approach will probably only formalise what is most likely the current reality for most EU workers in the UK).

3. At any time, Britain can place a cap on the number of EU migrants as deemed necessary and can set up a system where certain industries or sectors are allowed up to a certain number of EU migrant visas per year, which will be evaluated annually and numbers based on current economic conditions. In times of recession, the cap is severely restricted, but Britain will not force EU migrants on valid working visas and employed to leave their jobs and the UK.

This goes both ways, by the way. Similar treatment will be applied to British workers seeking to work inside the EU.

4. A special movement category will also be created for affluent retirees or people of private means who can prove they are entirely self-funding and do not rely on the state for jobs or benefits. If a rich Italian wants to retire to Scotland, let him do it. This treatment will also apply to Britons wanting to retire to Spain or Italy.

5. The City financial sector is incorporated as a special zone. EU regulations apply to the City, and solely the City, and solely to institutions that conduct financial businesses with the EU, in order to allow City financial industries to continue to provide services with the EU and handle euro funds. The City will continue to be able to recruit workers from the EU to work in its industries and is exempt from the migrant caps, although the same restrictions on benefits and permanent residency apply.

Britain, however, has the right to revoke this special zone standing at any time (interesting thought, Britain can also create several other special financial zones for Edinburgh, Leeds and Newcastle with similar treatment, as an attempt to divert some of the City's jobs up North and help revitalise the North and address what was a genuine cry of desperation by Northern voters in the referendum).

6. EU laws and regulations will no longer apply to the rest of the UK (outside the City and designated special zones). The EU courts will no longer take precedence over British courts. EU parliament cannot override Parliament, although Parliament is perfectly free to adopt any EU regulations it likes and deems appropriate.

In exchange for the above, Britain will provide the following:

1. Britain will continue to contribute to the EU budget. We're effectively buying our access to the single market. The sum to contribute will be negotiated as needed with the old opt outs removed. It's likely the figure will become smaller, but in exchange the EU will no longer provide funding for local programmes or schemes within the UK. Britain will take over that responsibility entirely.

2. Britain will cooperate with the EU on jointly funded initiatives as equal partners for special category areas, such as research or other educational endeavours. Britain may even declare its universities special zones similar to the City, allowing the universities to continue to recruit talented researchers and academics from the EU without restriction (with equal treatment from EU universities wanting to recruit British researchers and academics).

3. Britain will cooperate with the EU on European affairs of diplomacy (European only affairs, mind you). For example, we will work with the EU diplomatic corps in developing responses to the Ukraine crisis or Russia. We will not act on our own on European issues. Britain, however, will never be part of any EU army, although we will continue to fully support NATO. We will agree to not oppose the EU on any EU diplomatic issues. On non-EU affairs, Britain is free to do entirely as we wish.

4. Britain will no longer participate in the EU parliament (and therefore will no longer oppose EU initiatives and be a persistent thorn in the EU's side).

I'm sure there's a thousand and one more issues to go over that skilled diplomats and negotiators will doubtlessly have to consider, but the above potential scenario is based on addressing Britain's biggest concerns: migration and sovereignty while preserving access to the single market. In exchange we satisfy some of the EU's big concerns: continued funding contribution, support for EU diplomacy issues, movement of citizens (albeit with some logical restrictions).

Feel free to rip it apart but I do think it's genuinely possible that a rational approach towards Brexit from both the EU and the UK can help preserve some of the best aspects of the EU and our relationship with one another while strategically addressing each side's legitimate concerns.

What do you want to see in a post-Brexit future for Britain and the EU? What do you think is possible?
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Old Jun 27th 2016, 6:48 am
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Default Re: Post-Brexit Britain

:good post: This!!! is what I would have voted for had it been offered (and had I qualified to vote).

The only thing that I think you may have missed is the free movement of people from a tourist perspective within Britain and the EU. Most of the younger generation that I have spoken to (including my own kids) are focussed on the ability to travel and work in Europe as per your work permit system.
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Old Jun 27th 2016, 6:57 am
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Default Re: Post-Brexit Britain

#Weaintgoinganywhere

wait and see.
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Old Jun 27th 2016, 7:06 am
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Default Re: Post-Brexit Britain

Originally Posted by Millhouse View Post
#Weaintgoinganywhere

wait and see.
OK, MH, I can see your thinking and am probably in a similar vein at present, but then how do you explain the Forex markets. If it was just unwinding bad positions the rout should have stopped and possibly reversed a bit by now but I'm still seeing 1.36 on Cable
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Old Jun 27th 2016, 7:12 am
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Default Re: Post-Brexit Britain

On post one, as a manufacturer wanting to trade with the EU, I'd set up a shell company (or use a "special vehicle" for that purpose) that trades and follows all the guidelines, while i will do as i see fit.
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Old Jun 27th 2016, 7:21 am
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Default Re: Post-Brexit Britain

Originally Posted by TheShed View Post
OK, MH, I can see your thinking and am probably in a similar vein at present, but then how do you explain the Forex markets. If it was just unwinding bad positions the rout should have stopped and possibly reversed a bit by now but I'm still seeing 1.36 on Cable
The markets will be in panic mode for a while. We have extreme political risk in the UK right now - markets hate political events. My guess is people also betting on the currency.

FTSE is only doing "OK" due to the currency offsetting affect only.
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Old Jun 27th 2016, 7:52 am
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Default Re: Post-Brexit Britain

Originally Posted by Millhouse View Post
The markets will be in panic mode for a while. We have extreme political risk in the UK right now - markets hate political events. My guess is people also betting on the currency.

FTSE is only doing "OK" due to the currency offsetting affect only.
Markets also hate uncertainty so political uncertainty across Europe is bad bad news.
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Old Jun 27th 2016, 8:00 am
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Default Re: Post-Brexit Britain

Originally Posted by Millhouse View Post
The markets will be in panic mode for a while. We have extreme political risk in the UK right now - markets hate political events. My guess is people also betting on the currency.

FTSE is only doing "OK" due to the currency offsetting affect only.
Of the combined profits of all the FTSE 100 companies, over 75% of their profits are earned from overseas so a weaker £ should help them hence only a 3% fall on Friday

Of the combined profits of the FTSE 250 companies, less than 50% of their profits are earned overseas hence the 7.5% fall in that index on Friday
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Old Jun 27th 2016, 8:13 am
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Default Re: Post-Brexit Britain

If we want to talk about the market, perhaps start a new thread for that?

I started this thread because I was interested in hearing other people's theories for a post-Brexit UK political framework.
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Old Jun 27th 2016, 8:20 am
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Default Re: Post-Brexit Britain

Originally Posted by Lightandbitter View Post
Of the combined profits of all the FTSE 100 companies, over 75% of their profits are earned from overseas so a weaker £ should help them hence only a 3% fall on Friday

Of the combined profits of the FTSE 250 companies, less than 50% of their profits are earned overseas hence the 7.5% fall in that index on Friday
exactly. natural hedge on both.

They are still going to crash though
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Old Jun 27th 2016, 8:21 am
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Default Re: Post-Brexit Britain

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH View Post
If we want to talk about the market, perhaps start a new thread for that?

I started this thread because I was interested in hearing other people's theories for a post-Brexit UK political framework.
The political framework I foresee is this:

- No change
- We Exit in Name only
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Old Jun 27th 2016, 9:13 am
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Default Re: Post-Brexit Britain

Originally Posted by Millhouse View Post
The political framework I foresee is this:

- No change
- We Exit in Name only
But we do save £350Million a week that we can then spend on the NHS and getting rid of the fuzzy wuzzies....
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Old Jun 27th 2016, 9:26 am
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Default Re: Post-Brexit Britain

Originally Posted by IKnowNothing View Post
But we do save £350Million a week that we can then spend on the NHS and getting rid of the fuzzy wuzzies....
Now that we have no government (or any future government), I'm sure we are saving more than that right now
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Old Jun 27th 2016, 9:28 am
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Default Re: Post-Brexit Britain

Why do I have a feeling that Kwasi Kwarteng will be trying for the PM job?

I would like that too. I would accept him over that son of a b... us driver
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Old Jun 27th 2016, 9:34 am
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Default Re: Post-Brexit Britain

As we are now turning Far Right, when do the Brownshirts appear?
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