At last - the voice of sanity on Dubai property prices.......
Aug 6th 2008, 3:22 pm
#16
Lost in BE Cyberspace
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Re: At last - the voice of sanity on Dubai property prices.......
Can somebody who is better at maths than me (that would be just about everybody) explain how a share can trade at 100% below a target price? Wouldn't it have to be worth zero to do that? So, this is an investment bank that can't do percentages. No wonder the American economy is in a mess.
I'm still pretty positive about the whole property market- I don't think a 10% drop in prices by 2010 is out of the question at all but that still doesn't meet my definition of a crash. I'm in it for the long haul and as has already been mentioned the market is cyclical so I'm confident it will go back up again and hopefully achieve a bit more stability in the process.
If the political will is there it is very easy to deter the speculators by introducing some form of capital gains tax, but I'm not sure the political will is there. The market could also be stimulated (if required) by dropping interest rates which are very high compared to the US.
Anyway, at the moment I'm selling one of my apartments in Dubai and taking the money back to the UK to invest there, even with the lousy exchange rate. It's a bit like trying to catch a falling knife but I think in the next 12 months or so the UK property market will represent better value for money (read, return on investment) than the Dubai market. But I have been wrong before, and just in case I am I'm still keeping a couple of places in Dubai as well.
I'm still pretty positive about the whole property market- I don't think a 10% drop in prices by 2010 is out of the question at all but that still doesn't meet my definition of a crash. I'm in it for the long haul and as has already been mentioned the market is cyclical so I'm confident it will go back up again and hopefully achieve a bit more stability in the process.
If the political will is there it is very easy to deter the speculators by introducing some form of capital gains tax, but I'm not sure the political will is there. The market could also be stimulated (if required) by dropping interest rates which are very high compared to the US.
Anyway, at the moment I'm selling one of my apartments in Dubai and taking the money back to the UK to invest there, even with the lousy exchange rate. It's a bit like trying to catch a falling knife but I think in the next 12 months or so the UK property market will represent better value for money (read, return on investment) than the Dubai market. But I have been wrong before, and just in case I am I'm still keeping a couple of places in Dubai as well.
Not my quote I was quoting (your post makes it look like it was MY dodgy maths)....... sorry for not checking the quote that I posted in the quote that I posted...... er...........
Still think their main point is right though.......... like everyone else I wish I'd bought somewhere in Dubai about 5 years ago, but I wouldn't touch it now.
Last edited by The Dean; Aug 6th 2008 at 3:22 pm. Reason: spacing
Aug 7th 2008, 5:03 am
#17
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Re: At last - the voice of sanity on Dubai property prices.......
I didn't mean to make it look like your maths was dodgy, I just thought it was ironic that a bank can get quoted in the press in a way that makes it look like it failed GCSE Maths.
But anyway, yes, the main point of the article is valid.
But anyway, yes, the main point of the article is valid.
Aug 7th 2008, 5:14 am
#18
**** it we'll do it live
Joined: Oct 2004
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Re: At last - the voice of sanity on Dubai property prices.......
maybe thats why they've lost $9.4 Billion recently
Aug 7th 2008, 7:17 am
#19
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Re: At last - the voice of sanity on Dubai property prices.......
And looking at the current Emaar share price (AED 10.40-ish), I assume the intention was to say that the share would have to rise by 100 pct (i.e. double) to reach MS's target. It's FIFTY percent below it, I suppose.
Which begs a question - if the property market is about to correct (downwards) by 10 percent, why are MS tipping the shares to double?
I'll get me coat....... again........
Aug 7th 2008, 9:00 am
#20
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Re: At last - the voice of sanity on Dubai property prices.......
Shares are not short term anyways (unlike the property market in the UAE lol). The richest people in the world make more from equities long term than they do from property for sure...have a chat with Warren Buffett if you don't believe me
N.
Aug 7th 2008, 9:04 am
#21
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Re: At last - the voice of sanity on Dubai property prices.......
Well that's not entirely true...temperature can. And we have a "-" sign in Maths which helps understand negative values.
Shares are not short term anyways (unlike the property market in the UAE lol). The richest people in the world make more from equities long term than they do from property for sure...have a chat with Warren Buffett if you don't believe me
N.
Shares are not short term anyways (unlike the property market in the UAE lol). The richest people in the world make more from equities long term than they do from property for sure...have a chat with Warren Buffett if you don't believe me
N.
I remember (vaguely) Buffett's comment back in the 'dot.com boom' days:
"If you want to invest in heretodaygonetomorrow.com that's up to you. I won't - now can someone ask my driver to bring the Rolls round to the front door................"
Last edited by The Dean; Aug 7th 2008 at 9:05 am. Reason: spacing
Aug 7th 2008, 9:27 am
#22
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Re: At last - the voice of sanity on Dubai property prices.......
All the signs of overheating are here...so it's just a matter of time really. Have a look at what happened in Singapore and that's pretty much what will happen in Dubai.
Medium to long term equities and long term propertyinvestments are where the real gains will be made.
N.
Aug 7th 2008, 9:35 am
#23
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Re: At last - the voice of sanity on Dubai property prices.......
I DO believe you - I saw the stats about USD 100 invested in a variety of markets 75 years ago or something........ the money market stuff has barely reached USD 1000, but equities have gone into millions.........
I remember (vaguely) Buffett's comment back in the 'dot.com boom' days:
"If you want to invest in heretodaygonetomorrow.com that's up to you. I won't - now can someone ask my driver to bring the Rolls round to the front door................"
I remember (vaguely) Buffett's comment back in the 'dot.com boom' days:
"If you want to invest in heretodaygonetomorrow.com that's up to you. I won't - now can someone ask my driver to bring the Rolls round to the front door................"
The other advantage of Equities is you can get your money back fairly quickly...property is only worth what you can sell it for and that can take months or years in some cases. Property can also fall down or be destroyed. It would take a lot to destroy entire stock markets (like complete global economic meltdown lol).
This is why there are plenty of millionaires in the world who never brought a house except to live in and plenty of stressed up property owners who get their fingers burnt.
N.
