Originally Posted by Millhouse

New sanctions already imposed. Albeit in a reduced form.

Originally Posted by NorthernLad

My take is that they are appeasing KSA and Israel, the whole region is extremely fragile and this move would show they aren't cutting them loose (for now).

Originally Posted by Scamp

Interesting points there. Especially the last paragraph - it's a fair assessment but I think KSA will remain ultimately all-powerful and important because of it's size and wealth. Oil will remain necessary.

Originally Posted by Gordon Barlow

This article contains quite a good analysis of the US-Iran contest, from what I have found to be a usually thoughtful and reliable source.
Israel vs Iran: Israel loses, *big* time | The Vineyard of the Saker

Extract: "... the Empire will have to turn to its traditional set of dirty tricks: false flags, support for various terrorist groups, subversion of the Islamic Republic by means of the local money elites, sabotage, “human rights” campaigns (à la Neda), support for “gay rights”, arming of separatists groups, etc.
"But, at least for the time being, this is a huge victory for Iran and and equally huge defeat for Israel: the poor Zionists have now been robbed of not one, but two wars they wanted so badly..."

Originally Posted by Scamp

I find it hard to believe sailors don't know where they're going (as with the Brits a few years ago)

..

Originally Posted by jam25mack

I think that was a different matter. The Brits knew exactly where they were and that was in International waters. The Iranians were at that time just playing games similar to when they detained the group of 18yr old expat sailors travelling from Dubai to Doha for a sailing regatta, stating they had strayed into their waters.

The Brits even had photos of the GPS screen (showing they were in International waters) with the Iranian launches in the background if I remember rightly.

All that said, the Brits were very well treated during their short detainment and hold no negative thoughts to the Iranians, in fact I'm sure I read somewhere they actually had quite a nice time.

Originally Posted by Millhouse

I was once on a hotel-run fishing trip from the coast of RAK and the Iranian guard came to our boat and asked us to turn back.

I'd have loved to have made some headlines - especially as I had broken my glasses during the trip and had tapped them up like Jack Duckworth.

Originally Posted by Millhouse

I was once on a hotel-run fishing trip from the coast of RAK and the Iranian guard came to our boat and asked us to turn back.

I'd have loved to have made some headlines - especially as I had broken my glasses during the trip and had tapped them up like Jack Duckworth.

Originally Posted by captainflack

I went to the North Korean border a few years ago... the northern one with China on a river. You can pay a few yuan for a chinese guy to take you in a motorboat over to the other side, got within about 5 metres of the shore until a NK guard points a gun at the boat and shouts something. It's all part of the tourist experience, everyone thinks they've come close to a diplomatic incident, but the chinese boat guys probably bung the NK guy a few quid to give tourists a thrill and a story of how they nearly ended up as an international incident. Wouldn't be surprised if it was a nice sanction busting little business for the iranians too.

Originally Posted by captainflack

Iran sanctions are being lifted primarily because the US has clearly made a huge strategic shift. It's quite clear that it does not view Iran as a threat to either itself or to US interests now. After sic a shift, I think it very unlikely that the Iranians will be tricked or provoked into doing anything that is going to significantly change this. Some people suggested that the US Navy sailors straying into Iranian waters was a deliberate attempt by some in the military to mess up the improving relations but that's probably unlikely, and besides, the Iranians were swift to release the sailors which probably only improved relations further.

Considering the level of Saudi and Israeli opposition to Iran, it's also clear that the US appears happy now to disregard both of them. Saudi has a lot less sway because of the oil market these days, and maybe the US now......

Originally Posted by Millhouse

Sanctions lifted.

Who's going next week? (not me)

Personally, I think it won't deliver as we'd hope. The country will be constrained by its neighbours and decision making will be slow. A lack of integration, socialist thinking and a difficult language will make the whole thing tricky.

I also think that sanctions will be back on pretty soon as Saudi will coax it into making a mistake. Whatever project you sign up for, it better be highly paid and short.

Originally Posted by Brown Dawn

I would.
Go next week, that is.
When you are deeply invested in work, and being out of contract a few weeks, it is very appealing. Also since reading Fitzgerald's translation of Khayyam, forty odd years ago as a teenager, I have been fascinated with the place.
BD