Millhouse

You got your oil.

Lightandbitter

Got out too early at 47.70

Lightandbitter

And there it is... Under $1.30 !!

Have just read some convincing articles giving compelling reasons why the £ could and should be below $1.20

That's another nearly 8% drop and puts it at AED 4.4 !!!

Lightandbitter

Have convinced myself they are right.

Shorted it at 1.2940

Will hold down to 1.25

Sort of feels like a hedge against the FTSE short

not2old

how important is the 'Gold to Silver ratio' with regard to investing in either of the two precious metals

Shouldn't the ratio (googled) ideally be in the 17:1 range?

At present Silver in the $20 range & Gold above $1300 - surely the ratio is way out of wack?

Of course, should someone have silver at $15, then it doubles & they cash out, with that cash a Gold purchase (providing Gold hasn't increased by the same percentage) Gold would be a bargain

Does this mean Silver or Gold are bad investments?

Lightandbitter

Fairly meaningless nowadays since everything is priced in money.

Historically the silver gold ratio was always set by rulers/governments. The Romans set it at 12-1. But since money has stopped being backed by either and we have this manipulated paper market you can't really read much into it.

However since silver has exploded this year the ratio is down to about 68-1

When silver gets to $30 and gold $1500 then it comes down to 50-1

iggle

Also you have to take into consideration. The value of Silver will dramatically rise when vampires try to take over the world.

Meow

Don't do it!

Too risky to borrow to speculate.

Meow

One of the better financial predictions I have seen of late. I rather like the rationale.

not2old

LB @ post #307, thanks for that

So, it basically buy both Gold & silver for a minimum 12% or better return over the next 12 months

What if buying physical ...

1 oz Gold & 60 oz of silver (or multiples)

1 oz Gold @ ~ $1366/oz = $1366
60 oz Silver @ ~ $20/oz = $1200

$2566 invested (or in multiples)

Using a 12 month investment timeframe or whichever comes first?

Selling both at

1 oz Gold @ ~ $1500/oz = $1500 = 9.8% gain
60 oz Silver @ ~ $30/oz = $1800 = 50% gain

$3300 sell price. Net profit of $734/$2566 = 28.6%

Although crystal balling which direction those two precious metals move over the next 12 months is anyones guess. Buying that, how do you hedge to fully protect that type of investment, with zero loss?

not2old

LB, from your post above on July 3

in just a week the oil is under pressure

Given the dollar, the oil reserves & the Russians - within the next 90 days (or sooner) could oil be at or below $40?

Lightandbitter

Personally, yes I see it back under $40, maybe even $35.

There was quite a lot of support last week at $45 but when it breaks back down through that, I think we will get to $40 quite quickly, a lot sooner than 90 days.

Lightandbitter

For me, much more upside with silver than gold, $30 silver is now a strong possibility. For gold to achieve 50% takes it over $2000 which is a bit strong for me.

No such thing as a hedge to guarantee zero loss. You can buy the put option at same price as you bought the physical and that effectively guarantees you will break even on the physical but you then have to factor in cost of option, which is $1.65 so that is your maximum loss.
Or put another way, silver has to rise $1.65 to break even.

Silver option contracts are 5000oz each, hence the $100k example last week.

Lightandbitter

Perfect time to increase shorts on sterling. Before May gets in and confirms we are leaving.

Selling the f... out of £ at 1.2970

not2old

ouch!