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An impossible question? Dubai property market over next 5 years?

An impossible question? Dubai property market over next 5 years?

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Old Mar 29th 2011, 4:00 pm
  #16  
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Default Re: An impossible question? Dubai property market over next 5 years?

Originally Posted by Sandboy
exactly - there's a lot of it but it's no use to Dubai

you wouldn't believe the surname of the "gentleman" I have to meet tomorrow re a 2 million debt he says he can't pay
Is it Sheikh Mymoneybox?
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Old Mar 29th 2011, 4:04 pm
  #17  
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Default Re: An impossible question? Dubai property market over next 5 years?

Originally Posted by Meow
But whose money? I presume much of it has been moved from other MENA countries as the UAE is seen is safer. Just because it is in bank accounts here right now, it doesn't mean that it is actually going to help the economy, not unless the owners spend it.
spot on. It will sit in the banking system... it won't go into property locally. It may help free up some lending constraints for projects but every project needs equity as well as debt and no one will put any equity in.

I would also imagine that the influx of money is a piss in the ocean compared to what left the banking system here in 2008 when institutions stopped speculating on the currency peg.
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Old Mar 29th 2011, 8:57 pm
  #18  
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Default Re: An impossible question? Dubai property market over next 5 years?

Originally Posted by EmiratesMillhouse
Don't bet on that. Did you know the Orascom brothers just bought two large villas in Emirates Hills?

I'm not saying this place will boom - in fact apartments have to go down a reasonable amount yet before they become financially viable (or at least rents go up a lot). Neither are going to happen in the short - medium term.
i didnt but chances are they were up to their eyeballs in mubarak crap so getting money out of egypt and hidden will be their big concern now if they were tied to the last regime.

of course there is a distinct posibility that the next regime will be worse and it may all be the reverse of what i said above. if i had to put money on it id say better not worse but it is egypt.....
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Old Mar 30th 2011, 6:12 am
  #19  
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Default Re: An impossible question? Dubai property market over next 5 years?

I believe that if you buy now you risk losing a bit, but over 5 years it will be insignificant. Villas on established communities are probably a better bet than appartments, esecially if you want to rent out. When you look around the region there is nowhere that offers what the UAE can in terms of lifestyle.

I believe that very few folks from the West really enjoy living in Saudi, Kuwait, or Qatar - they are there to fill the money bucket - and tolerate the conditions while they do it. I have lived in them all + a few more, so I have some experience.

The current "Business freindly Bahrain" situation is only going to drive the remaining corporates to relocate here.
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Old Mar 30th 2011, 7:36 am
  #20  
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Default Re: An impossible question? Dubai property market over next 5 years?

I can't believe it still costs 7-800,000 for a 1 bed apartment in the Marina.
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Old Mar 30th 2011, 9:45 am
  #21  
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Default Re: An impossible question? Dubai property market over next 5 years?

Of course the other issue is whether you really believe you truly have absolute ownership of a property in the UAE. Freehold here is not the same as in the West.
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Old Mar 30th 2011, 10:02 am
  #22  
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Default Re: An impossible question? Dubai property market over next 5 years?

The initial idea was rent vs paying off mortgage.

For example:-

On a 1.6m dhs apartment, negotiate down to 1.4m, 400k deposit, mortgage on 1m dhs.

8% 20yr mortgage is about 8,100dhs per month

This is a saving of approx 2,000dhs per month on rent.

After 5 years you would have paid off about 150,000dhs capital, owing 850,000dhs. Plus saved 114,000dhs against rent therefore 736,000dhs owed.

However if you just look at the capital reduction of only 150,000dhs (15% of the loan) in five years if the property only dips say 10% in five years then you're out of pocket after fees, service charges etc

So for a slim margin like that plus all the other factors mentioned above - to answer my own question - it's not worth it...
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Old Mar 30th 2011, 10:06 am
  #23  
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Default Re: An impossible question? Dubai property market over next 5 years?

Originally Posted by Autonomy
The initial idea was rent vs paying off mortgage.

For example:-

On a 1.6m dhs apartment, negotiate down to 1.4m, 400k deposit, mortgage on 1m dhs.

8% 20yr mortgage is about 8,100dhs per month

This is a saving of approx 2,000dhs per month on rent.

After 5 years you would have paid off about 150,000dhs capital, owing 850,000dhs. Plus saved 114,000dhs against rent therefore 736,000dhs owed.

However if you just look at the capital reduction of only 150,000dhs (15% of the loan) in five years if the property only dips say 10% in five years then you're out of pocket after fees, service charges etc

So for a slim margin like that plus all the other factors mentioned above - to answer my own question - it's not worth it...
Don't forget services charges... One bed flat - probably 24k AED / year. If you pay them of course
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Old Mar 30th 2011, 1:25 pm
  #24  
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Default Re: An impossible question? Dubai property market over next 5 years?

All that money that you lot are referring to isn't going anywhere productive - it's sitting in deposit accounts waiting for the next opportunity.......

.......... which WON'T be in real estate, as I hear a rumour that a number of banks have told their branches that real estate/housing/construction projects will NOT be considered as suitable vehicles for lending in the next few years.
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Old Mar 31st 2011, 5:08 am
  #25  
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Default Re: An impossible question? Dubai property market over next 5 years?

Originally Posted by The Dean
.......... which WON'T be in real estate, as I hear a rumour that a number of banks have told their branches that real estate/housing/construction projects will NOT be considered as suitable vehicles for lending in the next few years.
exactly what my bank told me, it's going to be a while
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Old Mar 31st 2011, 6:42 am
  #26  
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Default Re: An impossible question? Dubai property market over next 5 years?

Originally Posted by The Dean
All that money that you lot are referring to isn't going anywhere productive - it's sitting in deposit accounts waiting for the next opportunity.......

.......... which WON'T be in real estate, as I hear a rumour that a number of banks have told their branches that real estate/housing/construction projects will NOT be considered as suitable vehicles for lending in the next few years.
leaves them a bit screwed then as thats how they make money from consumers
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Old Mar 31st 2011, 7:48 am
  #27  
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Default Re: An impossible question? Dubai property market over next 5 years?

Originally Posted by Autonomy
The initial idea was rent vs paying off mortgage.

For example:-

On a 1.6m dhs apartment, negotiate down to 1.4m, 400k deposit, mortgage on 1m dhs.

8% 20yr mortgage is about 8,100dhs per month

This is a saving of approx 2,000dhs per month on rent.

After 5 years you would have paid off about 150,000dhs capital, owing 850,000dhs. Plus saved 114,000dhs against rent therefore 736,000dhs owed.

However if you just look at the capital reduction of only 150,000dhs (15% of the loan) in five years if the property only dips say 10% in five years then you're out of pocket after fees, service charges etc

So for a slim margin like that plus all the other factors mentioned above - to answer my own question - it's not worth it...
after five years you my well have an asset that is worth bot all as well, be careful
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