Go Back  British Expats > Living & Moving Abroad > Middle East > The Sand Pit
Reload this Page >

An impossible question? Dubai property market over next 5 years?

An impossible question? Dubai property market over next 5 years?

Old Mar 29th 2011, 9:04 am
  #1  
Powered by cows
Thread Starter
 
Autonomy's Avatar
 
Joined: Jul 2004
Location: currently Dubai, ex UK
Posts: 4,581
Autonomy has a reputation beyond reputeAutonomy has a reputation beyond reputeAutonomy has a reputation beyond reputeAutonomy has a reputation beyond reputeAutonomy has a reputation beyond reputeAutonomy has a reputation beyond reputeAutonomy has a reputation beyond reputeAutonomy has a reputation beyond reputeAutonomy has a reputation beyond reputeAutonomy has a reputation beyond reputeAutonomy has a reputation beyond repute
Default An impossible question? Dubai property market over next 5 years?

Before anyone totally shoots me down, I don't really closely follow the property market as never really considered to buy here.

The market has clearly dropped a lot so far.

For a well maintained, near new, currently desirable, good location (New Dubai) apartment - can anyone hazard a guess at likely resale value in 5 years from now? 25% lower, about the same as now, 25% higher etc?

I know there are too many unknowns and variables - however anyone care to make a prediction?
Autonomy is offline  
Old Mar 29th 2011, 9:05 am
  #2  
Bored liberal
 
Meow's Avatar
 
Joined: Feb 2007
Location: Over there ----->
Posts: 13,705
Meow has a reputation beyond reputeMeow has a reputation beyond reputeMeow has a reputation beyond reputeMeow has a reputation beyond reputeMeow has a reputation beyond reputeMeow has a reputation beyond reputeMeow has a reputation beyond reputeMeow has a reputation beyond reputeMeow has a reputation beyond reputeMeow has a reputation beyond reputeMeow has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: An impossible question? Dubai property market over next 5 years?

Have you seen the crystal ball I keep in my office?

Don't do it. Seriously.
Meow is offline  
Old Mar 29th 2011, 10:03 am
  #3  
**** it we'll do it live
 
shiva's Avatar
 
Joined: Oct 2004
Location: Dubai
Posts: 7,892
shiva has a reputation beyond reputeshiva has a reputation beyond reputeshiva has a reputation beyond reputeshiva has a reputation beyond reputeshiva has a reputation beyond reputeshiva has a reputation beyond reputeshiva has a reputation beyond reputeshiva has a reputation beyond reputeshiva has a reputation beyond reputeshiva has a reputation beyond reputeshiva has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: An impossible question? Dubai property market over next 5 years?

dont just dont even consider it. for oh so many reasons

one big reason nobody is yet talking about is the arab spring.

a huge amount of arab money is in dubai as it has been seen as a safe haven from their own countries.

given the number of falling dictators and the chance that those economys could become fairly modern and transparent dubai could face a huge withdrawl of cash.

eg there is a shit ton of egyptian money in the gulf, given that egypt (once its settled down a bit) now has a chance at a more open and fairer economy with significantly less corruption i'd say there is a fair chance that a lot of that moeny could be relocted back into egypt. given that half that money is in property here it doesnt bode well for market prices.
this isnt just the big investors, your average egyptian sales guy on 20k odd a month could afford 1 property here but now egypt is changing he may consider saving his money there and on a salary like that he can afford a lot more at home than here, given the chance to become property rich in egypt his home country i suspect that we could see a mini boom in egypt if not a major one. (depends on how elections go)
shiva is offline  
Old Mar 29th 2011, 10:08 am
  #4  
BE Forum Addict
 
Sandboy's Avatar
 
Joined: Jun 2008
Posts: 2,094
Sandboy has a reputation beyond reputeSandboy has a reputation beyond reputeSandboy has a reputation beyond reputeSandboy has a reputation beyond reputeSandboy has a reputation beyond reputeSandboy has a reputation beyond reputeSandboy has a reputation beyond reputeSandboy has a reputation beyond reputeSandboy has a reputation beyond reputeSandboy has a reputation beyond reputeSandboy has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: An impossible question? Dubai property market over next 5 years?

Originally Posted by shiva View Post
d

one big reason nobody is yet talking about is the arab spring.

a huge amount of arab money is in dubai as it has been seen as a safe haven from their own countries.
my bank told me the other day that there's enough money come into Dubai in the last 2 months to solve all the problems several times over
Sandboy is offline  
Old Mar 29th 2011, 10:52 am
  #5  
Bored liberal
 
Meow's Avatar
 
Joined: Feb 2007
Location: Over there ----->
Posts: 13,705
Meow has a reputation beyond reputeMeow has a reputation beyond reputeMeow has a reputation beyond reputeMeow has a reputation beyond reputeMeow has a reputation beyond reputeMeow has a reputation beyond reputeMeow has a reputation beyond reputeMeow has a reputation beyond reputeMeow has a reputation beyond reputeMeow has a reputation beyond reputeMeow has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: An impossible question? Dubai property market over next 5 years?

Originally Posted by Sandboy View Post
my bank told me the other day that there's enough money come into Dubai in the last 2 months to solve all the problems several times over
But whose money? I presume much of it has been moved from other MENA countries as the UAE is seen is safer. Just because it is in bank accounts here right now, it doesn't mean that it is actually going to help the economy, not unless the owners spend it.
Meow is offline  
Old Mar 29th 2011, 11:55 am
  #6  
Account Closed
 
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 7,028
lionheart is an unknown quantity at this point
Default Re: An impossible question? Dubai property market over next 5 years?

25% down is my choice, primarily because of the thousands of new unsold apartments coming on to the market now that umpteen projects are reaching completion. I also happen to think that a major natural disaster is going to hit Dubai in the next 5-10 years, but that's just my Lionheart gut feeling.
lionheart is offline  
Old Mar 29th 2011, 11:56 am
  #7  
WWLLCJD?
 
Scamp's Avatar
 
Joined: Feb 2011
Location: Dubai
Posts: 21,458
Scamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond reputeScamp has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: An impossible question? Dubai property market over next 5 years?

Originally Posted by lionheart View Post
I also happen to think that a major natural disaster is going to hit Dubai in the next 5-10 years, but that's just my Lionheart gut feeling.
??? What kind?
Scamp is offline  
Old Mar 29th 2011, 1:04 pm
  #8  
Concierge
 
Blue Cat's Avatar
 
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 29,625
Blue Cat has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Cat has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Cat has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Cat has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Cat has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Cat has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Cat has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Cat has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Cat has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Cat has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Cat has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: An impossible question? Dubai property market over next 5 years?

Originally Posted by Autonomy View Post
Before anyone totally shoots me down, I don't really closely follow the property market as never really considered to buy here.

The market has clearly dropped a lot so far.

For a well maintained, near new, currently desirable, good location (New Dubai) apartment - can anyone hazard a guess at likely resale value in 5 years from now? 25% lower, about the same as now, 25% higher etc?

I know there are too many unknowns and variables - however anyone care to make a prediction?
I would imagine it will be about the same as now if you are lucky, too much demand, poor build quality, general unrest in the ME, too many things to factor in but I can't see this place stabilising for years. Villa's are a better bet, but even then the poor quality would be an obstacle for people want to sell on.
Blue Cat is offline  
Old Mar 29th 2011, 1:57 pm
  #9  
BE Forum Addict
 
Sandboy's Avatar
 
Joined: Jun 2008
Posts: 2,094
Sandboy has a reputation beyond reputeSandboy has a reputation beyond reputeSandboy has a reputation beyond reputeSandboy has a reputation beyond reputeSandboy has a reputation beyond reputeSandboy has a reputation beyond reputeSandboy has a reputation beyond reputeSandboy has a reputation beyond reputeSandboy has a reputation beyond reputeSandboy has a reputation beyond reputeSandboy has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: An impossible question? Dubai property market over next 5 years?

Originally Posted by Meow View Post
But whose money? I presume much of it has been moved from other MENA countries as the UAE is seen is safer. Just because it is in bank accounts here right now, it doesn't mean that it is actually going to help the economy, not unless the owners spend it.
exactly - there's a lot of it but it's no use to Dubai

you wouldn't believe the surname of the "gentleman" I have to meet tomorrow re a 2 million debt he says he can't pay
Sandboy is offline  
Old Mar 29th 2011, 1:57 pm
  #10  
BE Forum Addict
 
Sandboy's Avatar
 
Joined: Jun 2008
Posts: 2,094
Sandboy has a reputation beyond reputeSandboy has a reputation beyond reputeSandboy has a reputation beyond reputeSandboy has a reputation beyond reputeSandboy has a reputation beyond reputeSandboy has a reputation beyond reputeSandboy has a reputation beyond reputeSandboy has a reputation beyond reputeSandboy has a reputation beyond reputeSandboy has a reputation beyond reputeSandboy has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: An impossible question? Dubai property market over next 5 years?

Originally Posted by Blue Cat View Post
I would imagine it will be about the same as now if you are lucky, too much demand, poor build quality, general unrest in the ME, too many things to factor in but I can't see this place stabilising for years. Villa's are a better bet, but even then the poor quality would be an obstacle for people want to sell on.
wanna buy a villa ? I'm taking 2 as settlement of an unpaid bill
Sandboy is offline  
Old Mar 29th 2011, 2:14 pm
  #11  
Bored liberal
 
Meow's Avatar
 
Joined: Feb 2007
Location: Over there ----->
Posts: 13,705
Meow has a reputation beyond reputeMeow has a reputation beyond reputeMeow has a reputation beyond reputeMeow has a reputation beyond reputeMeow has a reputation beyond reputeMeow has a reputation beyond reputeMeow has a reputation beyond reputeMeow has a reputation beyond reputeMeow has a reputation beyond reputeMeow has a reputation beyond reputeMeow has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: An impossible question? Dubai property market over next 5 years?

Originally Posted by Sandboy View Post
exactly - there's a lot of it but it's no use to Dubai

you wouldn't believe the surname of the "gentleman" I have to meet tomorrow re a 2 million debt he says he can't pay
Tell me, tell me.
Meow is offline  
Old Mar 29th 2011, 3:00 pm
  #12  
Concierge
 
Blue Cat's Avatar
 
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 29,625
Blue Cat has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Cat has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Cat has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Cat has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Cat has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Cat has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Cat has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Cat has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Cat has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Cat has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Cat has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: An impossible question? Dubai property market over next 5 years?

Originally Posted by Sandboy View Post
wanna buy a villa ? I'm taking 2 as settlement of an unpaid bill
I wouldn't by a caravan here
Blue Cat is offline  
Old Mar 29th 2011, 3:00 pm
  #13  
BE Forum Addict
 
Sandboy's Avatar
 
Joined: Jun 2008
Posts: 2,094
Sandboy has a reputation beyond reputeSandboy has a reputation beyond reputeSandboy has a reputation beyond reputeSandboy has a reputation beyond reputeSandboy has a reputation beyond reputeSandboy has a reputation beyond reputeSandboy has a reputation beyond reputeSandboy has a reputation beyond reputeSandboy has a reputation beyond reputeSandboy has a reputation beyond reputeSandboy has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: An impossible question? Dubai property market over next 5 years?

Originally Posted by Blue Cat View Post
I wouldn't by a caravan here
wouldn't what by a caravan ?

piss shag ?
Sandboy is offline  
Old Mar 29th 2011, 3:02 pm
  #14  
Concierge
 
Blue Cat's Avatar
 
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 29,625
Blue Cat has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Cat has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Cat has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Cat has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Cat has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Cat has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Cat has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Cat has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Cat has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Cat has a reputation beyond reputeBlue Cat has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: An impossible question? Dubai property market over next 5 years?

Originally Posted by Sandboy View Post
wouldn't what by a caravan ?

piss shag ?
lol dodgy u key, buy! good luck trying to sell them, my friend recently sold her villa on the Ranches
Blue Cat is offline  
Old Mar 29th 2011, 3:59 pm
  #15  
Millhouse is not a meme
 
Millhouse's Avatar
 
Joined: Aug 2009
Location: Disneyland, Dubai
Posts: 14,391
Millhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond reputeMillhouse has a reputation beyond repute
Default Re: An impossible question? Dubai property market over next 5 years?

Originally Posted by shiva View Post

given the number of falling dictators and the chance that those economys could become fairly modern and transparent dubai could face a huge withdrawl of cash.
Don't bet on that. Did you know the Orascom brothers just bought two large villas in Emirates Hills?

I'm not saying this place will boom - in fact apartments have to go down a reasonable amount yet before they become financially viable (or at least rents go up a lot). Neither are going to happen in the short - medium term.
Millhouse is offline  

Contact Us Archive Advertising Cookie Policy Privacy Statement Terms of Service

Copyright © 2018 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.