Autonomy

Before anyone totally shoots me down, I don't really closely follow the property market as never really considered to buy here.

The market has clearly dropped a lot so far.

For a well maintained, near new, currently desirable, good location (New Dubai) apartment - can anyone hazard a guess at likely resale value in 5 years from now? 25% lower, about the same as now, 25% higher etc?

I know there are too many unknowns and variables - however anyone care to make a prediction?

Meow

Have you seen the crystal ball I keep in my office?

Don't do it. Seriously.

shiva

dont just dont even consider it. for oh so many reasons

one big reason nobody is yet talking about is the arab spring.

a huge amount of arab money is in dubai as it has been seen as a safe haven from their own countries.

given the number of falling dictators and the chance that those economys could become fairly modern and transparent dubai could face a huge withdrawl of cash.

eg there is a shit ton of egyptian money in the gulf, given that egypt (once its settled down a bit) now has a chance at a more open and fairer economy with significantly less corruption i'd say there is a fair chance that a lot of that moeny could be relocted back into egypt. given that half that money is in property here it doesnt bode well for market prices.
this isnt just the big investors, your average egyptian sales guy on 20k odd a month could afford 1 property here but now egypt is changing he may consider saving his money there and on a salary like that he can afford a lot more at home than here, given the chance to become property rich in egypt his home country i suspect that we could see a mini boom in egypt if not a major one. (depends on how elections go)

Sandboy

my bank told me the other day that there's enough money come into Dubai in the last 2 months to solve all the problems several times over

Meow

But whose money? I presume much of it has been moved from other MENA countries as the UAE is seen is safer. Just because it is in bank accounts here right now, it doesn't mean that it is actually going to help the economy, not unless the owners spend it.

lionheart

25% down is my choice, primarily because of the thousands of new unsold apartments coming on to the market now that umpteen projects are reaching completion. I also happen to think that a major natural disaster is going to hit Dubai in the next 5-10 years, but that's just my Lionheart gut feeling.

scrubbedexpat141

??? What kind?

Blue Cat

I would imagine it will be about the same as now if you are lucky, too much demand, poor build quality, general unrest in the ME, too many things to factor in but I can't see this place stabilising for years. Villa's are a better bet, but even then the poor quality would be an obstacle for people want to sell on.

Sandboy

exactly - there's a lot of it but it's no use to Dubai

you wouldn't believe the surname of the "gentleman" I have to meet tomorrow re a 2 million debt he says he can't pay

Sandboy

wanna buy a villa ? I'm taking 2 as settlement of an unpaid bill

Meow

Tell me, tell me.

Blue Cat

I wouldn't by a caravan here

Sandboy

wouldn't what by a caravan ?

piss shag ?

Blue Cat

lol dodgy u key, buy! good luck trying to sell them, my friend recently sold her villa on the Ranches

Millhouse

Don't bet on that. Did you know the Orascom brothers just bought two large villas in Emirates Hills?

I'm not saying this place will boom - in fact apartments have to go down a reasonable amount yet before they become financially viable (or at least rents go up a lot). Neither are going to happen in the short - medium term.