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Implications of a triple dip recession

Implications of a triple dip recession

Old Mar 12th 2013, 5:28 pm
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Default Re: Implications of a triple dip recession

[QUOTE]just minor tremors that they don't think will result in major earthquakes./QUOTE]

Now i feel safe!
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Old Mar 12th 2013, 5:31 pm
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Default Re: Implications of a triple dip recession

The problem with UK PLC is that it's really two things:

UK PLC (nationwide)

London LC

London is doing extremely well. The city is busy. The entire southeast region that feeds off London is doing well.

It's the rest of the country that's stagnating.

To answer your questions about the housing market, prime central London property prices have gone up as much as 30% in the last few years due to the huge supply of overseas buyers rushing to buy London property as a safe haven (Euro buyers, Middle Easterners and East Asians are paying sky high prices just to own property in London). The British sellers are cashing out and using their capital to buy houses in the less prime areas of greater London and that in turn has a domino effect on the home counties and southern England in general.

The disparity between London and the rest of the country has never been as stark as it is now. It's not healthy in the long run.



Originally Posted by kittycat1
and why wont the housing market crash? The way I see it is cost of living has gone up, most people have had pay freezes for the last couple of years so they have less money, most people have debt, with costs of living going up but salaries staying the same or being cut, surely it is only a matter of time til individuals miss payments and lose their homes. With no first time buyers as noone can borrow money surely properties will move into negative equity leading the market has to crash? Not that I want that as loosing your home is horrible but it makes for a good time for investment, but why do you think that is unlikely?
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Old Mar 12th 2013, 5:58 pm
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Default Re: Implications of a triple dip recession

Originally Posted by Millhouse
it screws the water table. The next step will be desalination plants powered by cracked-gas.
*invests in frackers*
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Old Mar 13th 2013, 4:44 am
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Default Re: Implications of a triple dip recession

Originally Posted by Millhouse
a decent thread...

Triple dip means to me:

1) more Quatative Easing that does not go into the real economy but rushes to the already over-inflated stock exchange bubble.
2) further downward pressure on the exchange rate and credit rating.
3) house prices stagnate - I don't see them crashing sadly and nor do I see the cheap money rushing into the housing market to inflate the bubble again.
4) another large business hits the wall. If there is any justice in this world it will be Alan Sugar's but I suspect it will be Marks, Debenhams or John Lewis.
5) General wage erosion though inflation.
6) We'll go all out for Fracking. Energy independence is the only thing that can save us (same for the US)

I have no predictions for the real economy as I don't work in it, but I suspect we'll go all out on the currency war to boost exports of services and goods and try and inflate the debt away.
Good points well made
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Old Mar 13th 2013, 4:46 am
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Default Re: Implications of a triple dip recession

Originally Posted by kittycat1
what's fracking?
an ecological disaster already visited on america and soon to come to the UK.
its the extraction of natural gas from underground by various means most of which involve ****ing up the ground water supply and earth around the drilling sites.
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Old Mar 13th 2013, 4:48 am
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Default Re: Implications of a triple dip recession

Originally Posted by Millhouse
Did i say there would be a rush to Fracking?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environmen...e-uk-shale-gas

And this is what it is:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-14432401


I am 100% convinced that we will follow this aggressively and it is the only thing that can kick-start our economy. Cheap energy always gives economies a head start and we are running out.
except that as in the us it will crash gas prices reducing government revenue, reducing profits that will encourage even more corner cutting.
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Old Mar 13th 2013, 4:50 am
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Default Re: Implications of a triple dip recession

Originally Posted by Millhouse
it screws the water table. The next step will be desalination plants powered by cracked-gas.
and an inevitable cycle will begin.

im not actually anti fracking, i just dont believe that the government will impose any meaningful regulation on it to avoid ****ing up everything.
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Old Mar 13th 2013, 4:51 am
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Default Re: Implications of a triple dip recession

Originally Posted by shiva
except that as in the us it will crash gas prices reducing government revenue, reducing profits that will encourage even more corner cutting.
It already has - US Gas prices have already dropped significantly.

While it will reduce revenues, it will drop costs too in the overall economy - running the power stations on near free fuel is rather tempting.
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Old Mar 13th 2013, 4:52 am
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Default Re: Implications of a triple dip recession

Originally Posted by Ethos83
The problem with UK PLC is that it's really two things:

UK PLC (nationwide)

London LC

London is doing extremely well. The city is busy. The entire southeast region that feeds off London is doing well.

true

It's the rest of the country that's stagnating.
untrue, retail indexes, job indexes etc are all growing in scotland. the north of england however is truly ****ed

To answer your questions about the housing market, prime central London property prices have gone up as much as 30% in the last few years due to the huge supply of overseas buyers rushing to buy London property as a safe haven (Euro buyers, Middle Easterners and East Asians are paying sky high prices just to own property in London). The British sellers are cashing out and using their capital to buy houses in the less prime areas of greater London and that in turn has a domino effect on the home counties and southern England in general.

The disparity between London and the rest of the country has never been as stark as it is now. It's not healthy in the long run.
agree on the last bit
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Old Mar 13th 2013, 4:57 am
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Default Re: Implications of a triple dip recession

Originally Posted by Millhouse
It already has - US Gas prices have already dropped significantly.

While it will reduce revenues, it will drop costs too in the overall economy - running the power stations on near free fuel is rather tempting.
i agree its very tempting especially since the power companies in the uk seem to have such a sway in Westminster

ill grant that cheaper power can help especially in power hungry industries but ultimately these companies will still need buyers of their goods and a labour force than competes with china. neither particularly exists right now hence i dont believe it will make a significant difference.

a far better solution is subsidized feed in tarrifs and development tax incentives for alternative energy creating a new industry with skilled workforce both of which can then be exported. raise the funds to do so by hammering transfer pricing and taxing the likes of google, amazon, starbucks et al.
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Old Mar 13th 2013, 4:59 am
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Default Re: Implications of a triple dip recession

Can somebody please explain why the pound is struggling a bit at the moment, yet there are constant cries of how well the stock markets are all doing?

Confidence can't be completely disappearing from the UK economy because since Xmas the FTSE has gone up 10%. However the pound is 7 or 8% down against dollar and euro.
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Old Mar 13th 2013, 5:03 am
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Default Re: Implications of a triple dip recession

for anyone who wants to know more about fracking watch this

http://www.gaslandthemovie.com/



whole film
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Old Mar 13th 2013, 5:56 am
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Default Re: Implications of a triple dip recession

Originally Posted by Scamp
Can somebody please explain why the pound is struggling a bit at the moment, yet there are constant cries of how well the stock markets are all doing?

Confidence can't be completely disappearing from the UK economy because since Xmas the FTSE has gone up 10%. However the pound is 7 or 8% down against dollar and euro.
As a dummy's guide:

The government are printing money -- this reduces the value of the pound

The money they are printing is being used to buy equities -- hence the market is high

The stock market has nothing to do with the economy. It never has, but even less so now than ever before due to the printing money.
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Old Mar 13th 2013, 5:58 am
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Default Re: Implications of a triple dip recession

Originally Posted by Millhouse
As a dummy's guide:

The government are printing money -- this reduces the value of the pound

The money they are printing is being used to buy equities -- hence the market is high

The stock market has nothing to do with the economy. It never has, but even less so now than ever before due to the printing money.
OK. What about the national debt, this have an effect on not just the credit rating but the value of the nuggets?
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Old Mar 13th 2013, 6:03 am
  #30  
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Default Re: Implications of a triple dip recession

Originally Posted by Millhouse
a decent thread...

Triple dip means to me:

1) more Quatative Easing that does not go into the real economy but rushes to the already over-inflated stock exchange bubble.
2) further downward pressure on the exchange rate and credit rating.
3) house prices stagnate - I don't see them crashing sadly and nor do I see the cheap money rushing into the housing market to inflate the bubble again.
4) another large business hits the wall. If there is any justice in this world it will be Alan Sugar's but I suspect it will be Marks, Debenhams or John Lewis.
5) General wage erosion though inflation.
6) We'll go all out for Fracking. Energy independence is the only thing that can save us (same for the US)

I have no predictions for the real economy as I don't work in it, but I suspect we'll go all out on the currency war to boost exports of services and goods and try and inflate the debt away.
Interesting thoughts.

The US is already gas independent and should be oil independent in the next 7-10years. I think regardless of political leanings people in the West have realised we can't be held hostage to hostile countries over oil. We are seeing a lot of investment into alternatives including waste reclamation tech.

I expect China will follow this path too in the next 20 years. Then we'll see how smart they are in the GCC, Iran and possibly Russia.

N.
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