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-   -   "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks." (https://britishexpats.com/forum/sand-pit-116/if-i-iranian-i-would-very-fearful-next-12-weeks-768308/)

The Dean Aug 15th 2012 9:31 am

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 

Originally Posted by shiva (Post 10228083)
because we cant all take years off work to train at sports we love funded by tax payers, sponsors and charity

Completely irrelevant - and not even close to answering my (admittedly somewhat rhetorical) question.

Let's put it another way - thank goodness for the Olympics, to show us just occasionally how we ought to do things..........

weasel decentral Aug 15th 2012 12:26 pm

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 
Aside from if its likely or not, (personally I don't think so) I would enjoy the spectacle of a mass exodus of (western) ex-pats from UAE. I think the level of panic and disbelief would be something to behold.

But obviously I don't want a war just to cater to my amusement needs.:lol:

Millhouse Aug 15th 2012 12:35 pm

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 

Originally Posted by weasel decentral (Post 10228428)
Aside from if its likely or not, (personally I don't think so) I would enjoy the spectacle of a mass exodus of (western) ex-pats from UAE. I think the level of panic and disbelief would be something to behold.

But obviously I don't want a war just to cater to my amusement needs.:lol:

Do you think it would cause exodus? Personally, I think we'd all sit on our fat arses sipping pimms saying 'nothing happens here, Giles.'

I guess the Iranians will leave (suddenly overnight with bags over their heads)... that will cause a problem getting a decent dentist and a fake bag down the Karama.

weasel decentral Aug 15th 2012 12:47 pm

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 

Originally Posted by Millhouse (Post 10228449)
Do you think it would cause exodus? Personally, I think we'd all sit on our fat arses sipping pimms saying 'nothing happens here, Giles.'

I guess the Iranians will leave (suddenly overnight with bags over their heads)... that will cause a problem getting a decent dentist and a fake bag down the Karama.

Well having been through recent similar experiences, I found that the softer the country the more likely the ex-pats are to leave at the signs of trouble.
If you are a fairly wizened old chap used to bashing around in rough places, the addition of war or fighting won't make much difference. But if you are living a softer or more pampered existence, the sound of gunfire tends to make you very nervous.

Case in point; fleeing of ex-pats from Egypt hardly a shot fired in anger versus continuous gunfire in Yemen, ex-pats thinking hmm might blow over won't leave just yet.
Also a lot of companies get nervous of having a duty of care to employees and extract them quickly rather than be potentially liable for having them in a dangerous situation.

OriginalSunshine Aug 15th 2012 3:07 pm

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 
http://psr.convio.net/images/content...lder/11598.gif

if an attack happens, I'd drive south if I lived in Musandam / Fujairah / Sharjah / Dubai.

OriginalSunshine Aug 15th 2012 3:21 pm

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19264236

and here's the "justification".....

norsk Aug 15th 2012 6:13 pm

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 

Originally Posted by The Dean (Post 10228140)
Completely irrelevant - and not even close to answering my (admittedly somewhat rhetorical) question.

Let's put it another way - thank goodness for the Olympics, to show us just occasionally how we ought to do things..........

There is also the fact that most individuals have no interest in fighting wars or attacking other countries. Only politicians have this mentality..

The Dean Aug 15th 2012 6:16 pm

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 

Originally Posted by OriginalSunshine (Post 10228713)
http://psr.convio.net/images/content...lder/11598.gif

if an attack happens, I'd drive south if I lived in Musandam / Fujairah / Sharjah / Dubai.

Had to go Googling to understand your map:

http://www.ndt-ed.org/EducationResou...y/Measures.htm

What is it based on? An attack whose epicentre is.... where, precisely? :confused:

OriginalSunshine Aug 15th 2012 6:22 pm

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 
ah - sorry - didnt realise the link wasn't provided. two nuclear strikes on the two major suspected nuclear sites. map shows fallout/REM after 48 hours based on prevailing winds.

as long as neither side starts lobbing nukes those of us outside the countries involved should be ok. if they do, then we should gtfo.

norsk Aug 15th 2012 6:32 pm

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 

Originally Posted by OriginalSunshine (Post 10229053)
ah - sorry - didnt realise the link wasn't provided. two nuclear strikes on the two major suspected nuclear sites. map shows fallout/REM after 48 hours based on prevailing winds.

as long as neither side starts lobbing nukes those of us outside the countries involved should be ok. if they do, then we should gtfo.

back in the 'old days' i spent some time in the norwegian army on the russian border (way way up north). this was back when the cold war was still in not too distant memory and the threat of nuclear war was still real if you will.

we were issued with two brushes as part of our standard kit to be carried in your jacket at all times. one was for polishing your boots (right pocket) and the other for brushing off radioactive dust (left pocket) after the fact. sounded ridiculous then and still does! we were also told never to look at the blast of a nuclear explosion as the flash would potentially burn out your eyes (similar danger to looking straight at a the sun under certain conditions I guess) and also to lie down facing away from the blast. the only thing i have to get hold of are iodine tablets.. happy days! i knew all the crap we went through might come in handy one day..:thumbsup:

Boomhauer Aug 15th 2012 6:35 pm

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 

Originally Posted by Brains1983 (Post 10227060)
This may be a stupid question, but why does the US elections have any bearing on this? Incase there is a change in foreign policy? I've seen a few statements that an attack is more likely at this time?

No serious US presidential candidate will ever give the appearance that they don't unquestionably support Israel during a presidential election year. The Repubs will be superfulous in their praise and ass kissing of Israel and the Dems will be more demure but neither will ever seriously question Israeli action like attacking Iran, during an election year.

MacScot Aug 15th 2012 8:22 pm

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 

Originally Posted by Autonomy (Post 10226937)
This was the quote from Mossad chief Ehraim Halevy, to the New York Times.

Huge upsurge of Israeli rhetoric that they will act either multi or unilaterally against Iran's nuclear production in a "matter of weeks". US Presidential elections in Nov being a large factor.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/iran...on-iran-strike

Curious on bored views on a few topics:
  • Do you think Israel will go it alone or do they need the US?
  • Do you think an attack is likely in the next 3 months?
  • Is an attack justified?
  • What retaliation would be expected if they do attack?
  • If it's Israeli only - retaliation against them only or if US jointly could that bring retaliation to US bases / supporters in the region?
  • What (if any) effect would attacks and retributions have on the UAE / Qatar / Bahrain?
  • Do I need either a tin foil hat or a bomb shelter?

Perhaps there is a counterpart (someone) in the Iranian military who might say "If I was an Israeli, I should also be very fearful of the next 12 weeks".

The mainstay of Iran’s strategic deterrent includes several thousand short-range (Tondar-69 and Fateh-110) and a number of medium-range mobile ballistic missiles, including the Shahab-3/3B with a range of up to 2,100 kms. On top of that Iran makes its own SCUD missiles. Many would get through probably targeting Tel Aviv (1,000 km from western Iran.

Autonomy Aug 15th 2012 11:55 pm

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 
I'm buying more tin foil....

Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and Kuwait urge Lebanon exodus
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19275595

Israel 'prepared for 30-day war with Iran'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19274866

OriginalSunshine Aug 16th 2012 7:06 am

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 

Originally Posted by norsk (Post 10229069)
the only thing i have to get hold of are iodine tablets.. happy days! i knew all the crap we went through might come in handy one day..:thumbsup:

if you get caught short of KI (potassium iodide) tablets, you can paint approx an 8"*8" square of iodine solution on your butt and your body will absorb the iodine which will protect you each day until you can get out of dodge. But never ingest pure iodine as it can be lethally toxic.

Why do I know this shit? :unsure:

Boomhauer Aug 16th 2012 7:20 am

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 

Originally Posted by OriginalSunshine (Post 10229906)
if you get caught short of KI (potassium iodide) tablets, you can paint approx an 8"*8" square of iodine solution on your butt and your body will absorb the iodine which will protect you each day until you can get out of dodge. But never ingest pure iodine as it can be lethally toxic.

Why do I know this shit? :unsure:

Iodised salt won't do?


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