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-   -   "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks." (https://britishexpats.com/forum/sand-pit-116/if-i-iranian-i-would-very-fearful-next-12-weeks-768308/)

Autonomy Aug 14th 2012 3:30 pm

"If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 
This was the quote from Mossad chief Ehraim Halevy, to the New York Times.

Huge upsurge of Israeli rhetoric that they will act either multi or unilaterally against Iran's nuclear production in a "matter of weeks". US Presidential elections in Nov being a large factor.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/iran...on-iran-strike

Curious on bored views on a few topics:
  • Do you think Israel will go it alone or do they need the US?
  • Do you think an attack is likely in the next 3 months?
  • Is an attack justified?
  • What retaliation would be expected if they do attack?
  • If it's Israeli only - retaliation against them only or if US jointly could that bring retaliation to US bases / supporters in the region?
  • What (if any) effect would attacks and retributions have on the UAE / Qatar / Bahrain?
  • Do I need either a tin foil hat or a bomb shelter?

NorthernLad Aug 14th 2012 4:09 pm

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 
I expect the Israelis will attack at some point (with US blessing although not publicly).

My feeling is that the Iranians would leave the gulf countries alone, the last thing they would need is to alienate their neighbours further and risk a full on attack.

Justification is a tough one. I have some admiration for the Israelis in the respect that they won't take any shit and will be proactive...there is a lot of wrong that they do, but their number one goal is self-preservation (and they have done well so far).

Millhouse Aug 14th 2012 4:17 pm

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 
Well, I can't see how it cannot happen. Conditions are perfect as they say.


Originally Posted by Autonomy (Post 10226937)
This was the quote from Mossad chief Ehraim Halevy, to the New York Times.

Huge upsurge of Israeli rhetoric that they will act either multi or unilaterally against Iran's nuclear production in a "matter of weeks". US Presidential elections in Nov being a large factor.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/iran...on-iran-strike

Curious on bored views on a few topics:
  • Do you think Israel will go it alone or do they need the US?

    They will go it alone... with a massive US presence in the gulf, just in case. US won't lead, but will implicitly support. Israel will launch from Azerbaijan
  • Do you think an attack is likely in the next 3 months?

    I'm convinced of it.
  • Is an attack justified?

    Nope. You could argue that another super power in he region wouldn't be so bad. Look at the 'peace' between India and Pakistan bought by a few big ass bombs. Not that I really subscribe to Norm's school of thought.
  • What retaliation would be expected if they do attack?

    Depends who does it and how hard it happens. Mostly localised acts of terror in the Levant.
  • If it's Israeli only - retaliation against them only or if US jointly could that bring retaliation to US bases / supporters in the region?

    everyone will get dragged in, in one form or another
  • What (if any) effect would attacks and retributions have on the UAE / Qatar / Bahrain?

    Bahrain won't be pretty.
  • Do I need either a tin foil hat or a bomb shelter?

    Both and maybe some clean, but dark, undies.


auzdafluff Aug 14th 2012 4:22 pm

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 

Originally Posted by Autonomy (Post 10226937)
This was the quote from Mossad chief Ehraim Halevy, to the New York Times.

Huge upsurge of Israeli rhetoric that they will act either multi or unilaterally against Iran's nuclear production in a "matter of weeks". US Presidential elections in Nov being a large factor.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/iran...on-iran-strike

Curious on bored views on a few topics:
  • Do you think Israel will go it alone or do they need the US?
  • Do you think an attack is likely in the next 3 months?
  • Is an attack justified?
  • What retaliation would be expected if they do attack?
  • If it's Israeli only - retaliation against them only or if US jointly could that bring retaliation to US bases / supporters in the region?
  • What (if any) effect would attacks and retributions have on the UAE / Qatar / Bahrain?
  • Do I need either a tin foil hat or a bomb shelter?

  • Do you think Israel will go it alone or do they need the US?

    Can? No.
    Will? I'd say 60% at the moment.

    The problem is, they know they've got the US by the balls. I'd love to see Obama publicly disown Israel if it went solo, but I can see it playing into the hands of Romney and co.

  • Do you think an attack is likely in the next 3 months?
    Depends. The Israeli military doesn't want it. The majority of its citizens don't either.

    Israel knows it needs US support for after it has bombed Iran. If it feels it will be disowned, they'll throw a tantrum like a toddler, but won't do anything.

    I could even see the military perform a coup-de-etat to 'save' Israel from something that would easily spiral into a Middle East wide war.

  • Is an attack justified?
    No. For all the rhetoric, I honestly think Iran is only after the bomb because it's seen how it's protected North Korea.

    They know using the weapon would mean the end of Iran, and religious or not, they don't want to see that come to pass.

  • What retaliation would be expected if they do attack?
    I'd imagine missiles launched at Isreal. Possibly with chemical/biological warheads. You're not going to see Iranian tanks battling with Israeli tanks. The global community might not be willing to start a fight, but you can be sure as hell China and Russia won't stand by idly while Iraq is turned into non-man's land.

  • If it's Israeli only - retaliation against them only or if US jointly could that bring retaliation to US bases / supporters in the region?
    Depends on Obama's response. If he immediately disowns the current Israeli government, I can see the Iranians restraining from striking US assets. They'll want to look like the victims. Hitting out at the US will likely result in ire from China and Russia.

    If the US denounces it both publicly and privately, it's not in Iran's interested to pick a fight with them.

  • What (if any) effect would attacks and retributions have on the UAE / Qatar / Bahrain?
    UAE? None. Too many Iranians. Shooting or bombing the country that is home to the majority of your expat population isn't wise, and wouldn't go down well with your own populace.

    Qatar? Depends on the media coverage Al Jazeera chooses to pump out. Even then, it'll be a war of words and diplomatic actions.

    Bahrain is the main one. Depends on the US response. They might seek to 'liberate' the country, and gain a foothold on the Arabian side of the gulf.

  • Do I need either a tin foil hat or a bomb shelter?
    I doubt it. It's not in Iran's interest to bomb Abu Dhabi or Dubai. Their ire would probably be directed at using 90 per cent of its missiles to hit Israel.

Brains1983 Aug 14th 2012 4:25 pm

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 

Originally Posted by Millhouse (Post 10227041)
Well, I can't see how it cannot happen. Conditions are perfect as they say.

This may be a stupid question, but why does the US elections have any bearing on this? Incase there is a change in foreign policy? I've seen a few statements that an attack is more likely at this time?

Millhouse Aug 14th 2012 4:32 pm

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 

Originally Posted by Brains1983 (Post 10227060)
This may be a stupid question, but why does the US elections have any bearing on this? Incase there is a change in foreign policy? I've seen a few statements that an attack is more likely at this time?

Everyone likes a war. And when the jews hold most of the investments in the country, you tend to listen to them.

Max the Dog Aug 14th 2012 4:38 pm

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_phenomenon :eek:

Millhouse Aug 14th 2012 4:41 pm

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 

Originally Posted by Max the Dog (Post 10227085)

Well, that is my birthday. I hope I go out with a bang.

OleJanx Aug 14th 2012 5:01 pm

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 

Originally Posted by Max the Dog (Post 10227085)

That sounds cheerful! Something to look forwards to at last...

Autonomy Aug 14th 2012 5:08 pm

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 

Originally Posted by Millhouse (Post 10227074)
Everyone likes a war. And when the jews hold most of the investments in the country, you tend to listen to them.

Exactly - Republicans and Romney especially are pro Israel and pro war. Obama and Democrats in general tend to be more dove than hawk. Forced into a support or not stance weeks before elections may force Obama to consider options he'd not always consider for political reasons when he may be facing a tight incumbent vote...

TGFKASE Aug 15th 2012 3:02 am

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 

Originally Posted by Millhouse (Post 10227088)
Well, that is my birthday. I hope I go out with a bang.

My birthday as well. Looking forward to the firework display to end all displays....

auzdafluff Aug 15th 2012 5:56 am

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 

Originally Posted by Brains1983 (Post 10227060)
This may be a stupid question, but why does the US elections have any bearing on this? Incase there is a change in foreign policy? I've seen a few statements that an attack is more likely at this time?

As Millhouse and Autonomy pointed out, it's the point Israel has most leverage over the US.

The Dean Aug 15th 2012 8:29 am

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 
1 Attachment(s)
Why can't the world be more like the Olympics? :unsure:

shiva Aug 15th 2012 8:39 am

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 

Originally Posted by Autonomy (Post 10226937)
This was the quote from Mossad chief Ehraim Halevy, to the New York Times.

Huge upsurge of Israeli rhetoric that they will act either multi or unilaterally against Iran's nuclear production in a "matter of weeks". US Presidential elections in Nov being a large factor.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/iran...on-iran-strike

Curious on bored views on a few topics:
  • Do you think Israel will go it alone or do they need the US?
    not sure, was some stuff the other day suggesting an israeli attack would be a temp solution while an american one would be somewhat more final in regards to weapons capability. on the whole i think that if the US doesnt attack after the election the israel will
  • Do you think an attack is likely in the next 3 months?
    see above
  • Is an attack justified?
    yes, on the whole id disagree with bombing a country for rhetoric but in a religious state where at any given moment the religious authorities could sieze total power then the idea of people with an absolute faith in an afterlife having control of nuclear weapons absolutely terrifies me.
  • What retaliation would be expected if they do attack?
    depends on who attacks and what scale, if its the US total destruction of infrastructure attack then what little will be left will be chucked at israel.
  • If it's Israeli only - retaliation against them only or if US jointly could that bring retaliation to US bases / supporters in the region?
    see above
  • What (if any) effect would attacks and retributions have on the UAE / Qatar / Bahrain?
    mass exodus of expats from region, sleeper cells could be activated, short range missiles chucked at us. Who knows but economically it probably wont be good short term. bahrain is the most likely to have internal trouble but the UAE an Iran are technically in a state of war already so who knows
  • Do I need either a tin foil hat or a bomb shelter?

    THIS is what i'm wondering, so many years of rhetoric from all sides have us all a little complacent about what could be a major major problem for expats in the region. I just dont know and frankly id rather not have to decide to leg it before the nov election but its an option worth considering at the moment

see blue above.
id also ad the question,
Are you considering a possible attack as a reason to leave the region soon?

shiva Aug 15th 2012 8:40 am

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 

Originally Posted by The Dean (Post 10228061)
Why can't the world be more like the Olympics? :unsure:

because we cant all take years off work to train at sports we love funded by tax payers, sponsors and charity

The Dean Aug 15th 2012 9:31 am

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 

Originally Posted by shiva (Post 10228083)
because we cant all take years off work to train at sports we love funded by tax payers, sponsors and charity

Completely irrelevant - and not even close to answering my (admittedly somewhat rhetorical) question.

Let's put it another way - thank goodness for the Olympics, to show us just occasionally how we ought to do things..........

weasel decentral Aug 15th 2012 12:26 pm

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 
Aside from if its likely or not, (personally I don't think so) I would enjoy the spectacle of a mass exodus of (western) ex-pats from UAE. I think the level of panic and disbelief would be something to behold.

But obviously I don't want a war just to cater to my amusement needs.:lol:

Millhouse Aug 15th 2012 12:35 pm

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 

Originally Posted by weasel decentral (Post 10228428)
Aside from if its likely or not, (personally I don't think so) I would enjoy the spectacle of a mass exodus of (western) ex-pats from UAE. I think the level of panic and disbelief would be something to behold.

But obviously I don't want a war just to cater to my amusement needs.:lol:

Do you think it would cause exodus? Personally, I think we'd all sit on our fat arses sipping pimms saying 'nothing happens here, Giles.'

I guess the Iranians will leave (suddenly overnight with bags over their heads)... that will cause a problem getting a decent dentist and a fake bag down the Karama.

weasel decentral Aug 15th 2012 12:47 pm

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 

Originally Posted by Millhouse (Post 10228449)
Do you think it would cause exodus? Personally, I think we'd all sit on our fat arses sipping pimms saying 'nothing happens here, Giles.'

I guess the Iranians will leave (suddenly overnight with bags over their heads)... that will cause a problem getting a decent dentist and a fake bag down the Karama.

Well having been through recent similar experiences, I found that the softer the country the more likely the ex-pats are to leave at the signs of trouble.
If you are a fairly wizened old chap used to bashing around in rough places, the addition of war or fighting won't make much difference. But if you are living a softer or more pampered existence, the sound of gunfire tends to make you very nervous.

Case in point; fleeing of ex-pats from Egypt hardly a shot fired in anger versus continuous gunfire in Yemen, ex-pats thinking hmm might blow over won't leave just yet.
Also a lot of companies get nervous of having a duty of care to employees and extract them quickly rather than be potentially liable for having them in a dangerous situation.

OriginalSunshine Aug 15th 2012 3:07 pm

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 
http://psr.convio.net/images/content...lder/11598.gif

if an attack happens, I'd drive south if I lived in Musandam / Fujairah / Sharjah / Dubai.

OriginalSunshine Aug 15th 2012 3:21 pm

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19264236

and here's the "justification".....

norsk Aug 15th 2012 6:13 pm

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 

Originally Posted by The Dean (Post 10228140)
Completely irrelevant - and not even close to answering my (admittedly somewhat rhetorical) question.

Let's put it another way - thank goodness for the Olympics, to show us just occasionally how we ought to do things..........

There is also the fact that most individuals have no interest in fighting wars or attacking other countries. Only politicians have this mentality..

The Dean Aug 15th 2012 6:16 pm

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 

Originally Posted by OriginalSunshine (Post 10228713)
http://psr.convio.net/images/content...lder/11598.gif

if an attack happens, I'd drive south if I lived in Musandam / Fujairah / Sharjah / Dubai.

Had to go Googling to understand your map:

http://www.ndt-ed.org/EducationResou...y/Measures.htm

What is it based on? An attack whose epicentre is.... where, precisely? :confused:

OriginalSunshine Aug 15th 2012 6:22 pm

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 
ah - sorry - didnt realise the link wasn't provided. two nuclear strikes on the two major suspected nuclear sites. map shows fallout/REM after 48 hours based on prevailing winds.

as long as neither side starts lobbing nukes those of us outside the countries involved should be ok. if they do, then we should gtfo.

norsk Aug 15th 2012 6:32 pm

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 

Originally Posted by OriginalSunshine (Post 10229053)
ah - sorry - didnt realise the link wasn't provided. two nuclear strikes on the two major suspected nuclear sites. map shows fallout/REM after 48 hours based on prevailing winds.

as long as neither side starts lobbing nukes those of us outside the countries involved should be ok. if they do, then we should gtfo.

back in the 'old days' i spent some time in the norwegian army on the russian border (way way up north). this was back when the cold war was still in not too distant memory and the threat of nuclear war was still real if you will.

we were issued with two brushes as part of our standard kit to be carried in your jacket at all times. one was for polishing your boots (right pocket) and the other for brushing off radioactive dust (left pocket) after the fact. sounded ridiculous then and still does! we were also told never to look at the blast of a nuclear explosion as the flash would potentially burn out your eyes (similar danger to looking straight at a the sun under certain conditions I guess) and also to lie down facing away from the blast. the only thing i have to get hold of are iodine tablets.. happy days! i knew all the crap we went through might come in handy one day..:thumbsup:

Boomhauer Aug 15th 2012 6:35 pm

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 

Originally Posted by Brains1983 (Post 10227060)
This may be a stupid question, but why does the US elections have any bearing on this? Incase there is a change in foreign policy? I've seen a few statements that an attack is more likely at this time?

No serious US presidential candidate will ever give the appearance that they don't unquestionably support Israel during a presidential election year. The Repubs will be superfulous in their praise and ass kissing of Israel and the Dems will be more demure but neither will ever seriously question Israeli action like attacking Iran, during an election year.

MacScot Aug 15th 2012 8:22 pm

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 

Originally Posted by Autonomy (Post 10226937)
This was the quote from Mossad chief Ehraim Halevy, to the New York Times.

Huge upsurge of Israeli rhetoric that they will act either multi or unilaterally against Iran's nuclear production in a "matter of weeks". US Presidential elections in Nov being a large factor.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/iran...on-iran-strike

Curious on bored views on a few topics:
  • Do you think Israel will go it alone or do they need the US?
  • Do you think an attack is likely in the next 3 months?
  • Is an attack justified?
  • What retaliation would be expected if they do attack?
  • If it's Israeli only - retaliation against them only or if US jointly could that bring retaliation to US bases / supporters in the region?
  • What (if any) effect would attacks and retributions have on the UAE / Qatar / Bahrain?
  • Do I need either a tin foil hat or a bomb shelter?

Perhaps there is a counterpart (someone) in the Iranian military who might say "If I was an Israeli, I should also be very fearful of the next 12 weeks".

The mainstay of Iran’s strategic deterrent includes several thousand short-range (Tondar-69 and Fateh-110) and a number of medium-range mobile ballistic missiles, including the Shahab-3/3B with a range of up to 2,100 kms. On top of that Iran makes its own SCUD missiles. Many would get through probably targeting Tel Aviv (1,000 km from western Iran.

Autonomy Aug 15th 2012 11:55 pm

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 
I'm buying more tin foil....

Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and Kuwait urge Lebanon exodus
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19275595

Israel 'prepared for 30-day war with Iran'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19274866

OriginalSunshine Aug 16th 2012 7:06 am

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 

Originally Posted by norsk (Post 10229069)
the only thing i have to get hold of are iodine tablets.. happy days! i knew all the crap we went through might come in handy one day..:thumbsup:

if you get caught short of KI (potassium iodide) tablets, you can paint approx an 8"*8" square of iodine solution on your butt and your body will absorb the iodine which will protect you each day until you can get out of dodge. But never ingest pure iodine as it can be lethally toxic.

Why do I know this shit? :unsure:

Boomhauer Aug 16th 2012 7:20 am

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 

Originally Posted by OriginalSunshine (Post 10229906)
if you get caught short of KI (potassium iodide) tablets, you can paint approx an 8"*8" square of iodine solution on your butt and your body will absorb the iodine which will protect you each day until you can get out of dodge. But never ingest pure iodine as it can be lethally toxic.

Why do I know this shit? :unsure:

Iodised salt won't do?

OriginalSunshine Aug 16th 2012 10:07 am

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 
the quantities you would need to stop thyroid cancer (which is what the iodine part is for) are large enough that so much iodised salt would be toxic to you far quicker than thyroid cancer.

bunjiman Aug 16th 2012 10:41 am

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 
Seems there is a lot of muscle flexing going on at the moment.

Another report of 30 day war with Iran:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...with-Iran.html


Blasts in Southern Israel:

http://news.yahoo.com/israeli-milita...212357045.html


The usual rhetoric from the Ayatollah:

http://news.yahoo.com/israeli-milita...212357045.html


Also this video interview with Webster Tarpley seems quite interesting:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fSa3CpaF46g&feature=plcp

Does anyone know Tarpley? He seems v knowledgable and educated, though likely has some sort of agenda...

Glad I'm leaving the region soon TBH.

mentalist Aug 17th 2012 9:01 am

Re: "If I was an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks."
 
Yet more belligerent rumour mongering from the UK media...
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage...ke-plants.html


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