How to win Free Drinks with the 'Heads-Tails Probability Trick'......
Sep 14th 2013, 7:34 am
#16
Lost in BE Cyberspace
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Re: How to win Free Drinks with the 'Heads-Tails Probability Trick'......
Its not a new game, he has just changed one of the variables from unknown to known.
The possible scenarios of each box are (W for win, L for lose), imagine them laid out in a row.
1: WLL
2: LWL
3: LLW
Picking scenario 1 to 3 and choosing box 2 (for example) in each case shows that you will win in one case (no 2) and lose in 2(no 1 and no 3).
Now imagine he has opened a losing box in each case and asks you to switch or stick. There is only one scenario where you can lose, that's in no. 2 because you had already chosen the right box, in the other two you are switching from the losing position to the winning position.
Hence why it is now a 2 out of 3 shot to win by switching. As there were 3 scenarios in play not a simple choice between 2 doors.
The possible scenarios of each box are (W for win, L for lose), imagine them laid out in a row.
1: WLL
2: LWL
3: LLW
Picking scenario 1 to 3 and choosing box 2 (for example) in each case shows that you will win in one case (no 2) and lose in 2(no 1 and no 3).
Now imagine he has opened a losing box in each case and asks you to switch or stick. There is only one scenario where you can lose, that's in no. 2 because you had already chosen the right box, in the other two you are switching from the losing position to the winning position.
Hence why it is now a 2 out of 3 shot to win by switching. As there were 3 scenarios in play not a simple choice between 2 doors.
Forget it - we will start to irritate each other, and I'm never going to see the 2/3. Anyway - we both agree we would switch.
Have a nice day.
Sep 14th 2013, 8:08 am
#17
Knee deep and rising
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,007
Re: How to win Free Drinks with the 'Heads-Tails Probability Trick'......
An extreme way I have seen it explained also is to consider a 1000 boxes, you choose one and they open 998 of the others leaving your original choice and one other unopened. Would people still consider the choice to switch or stick still a 50:50 shot? That somehow they managed to pick the correct one out of 1000 boxes the first time.
Sep 14th 2013, 9:08 am
#18
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Re: How to win Free Drinks with the 'Heads-Tails Probability Trick'......
my head hurts..
I don't understand why he would switch, surely its a game of chance and the presenter is calling his bluff and he may or may not have the right box.
All a bit much for me I used to enjoy this kind of stuff, these days less so- anyone else know how to make a bra...
I don't understand why he would switch, surely its a game of chance and the presenter is calling his bluff and he may or may not have the right box.
All a bit much for me I used to enjoy this kind of stuff, these days less so- anyone else know how to make a bra...
Sep 14th 2013, 10:43 am
#19
Hit 16's
Joined: Mar 2010
Location: Of all the gin joints, in all the towns, in all the world, she walks into mine
Posts: 13,112
Re: How to win Free Drinks with the 'Heads-Tails Probability Trick'......
my head hurts..
I don't understand why he would switch, surely its a game of chance and the presenter is calling his bluff and he may or may not have the right box.
All a bit much for me I used to enjoy this kind of stuff, these days less so- anyone else know how to make a bra...
I don't understand why he would switch, surely its a game of chance and the presenter is calling his bluff and he may or may not have the right box.
All a bit much for me I used to enjoy this kind of stuff, these days less so- anyone else know how to make a bra...
Sep 14th 2013, 1:03 pm
#20
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Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 4,641
Re: How to win Free Drinks with the 'Heads-Tails Probability Trick'......
my head hurts..
I don't understand why he would switch, surely its a game of chance and the presenter is calling his bluff and he may or may not have the right box.
All a bit much for me I used to enjoy this kind of stuff, these days less so- anyone else know how to make a bra...
I don't understand why he would switch, surely its a game of chance and the presenter is calling his bluff and he may or may not have the right box.
All a bit much for me I used to enjoy this kind of stuff, these days less so- anyone else know how to make a bra...
Step 2 - Cut coconut either with electric bandsaw/table if you really are a perfectionist or just get a machete and crack it down the middle.
Step 3 - drill 2 holes in each half
Step 4 - tie rope/string into each hole and test fit for right string length
Alternatively move to a Micronesian or Polynesian island and find someone to make one for you.
Sep 14th 2013, 2:48 pm
#21
Lost in BE Cyberspace
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Re: How to win Free Drinks with the 'Heads-Tails Probability Trick'......
Bahtatboy and Boomhauer
No that is incorrect. but points for effort- not you bahtatboy your just being pervy
No that is incorrect. but points for effort- not you bahtatboy your just being pervy
Sep 14th 2013, 3:58 pm
#22
Hit 16's
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Location: Of all the gin joints, in all the towns, in all the world, she walks into mine
Posts: 13,112
Sep 14th 2013, 8:15 pm
#23
Lost in BE Cyberspace
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Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 13,553
Re: How to win Free Drinks with the 'Heads-Tails Probability Trick'......
my head hurts..
I don't understand why he would switch, surely its a game of chance and the presenter is calling his bluff and he may or may not have the right box.
All a bit much for me I used to enjoy this kind of stuff, these days less so- anyone else know how to make a bra...
I don't understand why he would switch, surely its a game of chance and the presenter is calling his bluff and he may or may not have the right box.
All a bit much for me I used to enjoy this kind of stuff, these days less so- anyone else know how to make a bra...
Sep 14th 2013, 8:17 pm
#24
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Re: How to win Free Drinks with the 'Heads-Tails Probability Trick'......
why is switching better? you choose one out of 3 for whatever reason, one is taken away, you have still chosen one out of the two remaining, how does switching improve your chances?
Sep 15th 2013, 3:25 am
#25
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Re: How to win Free Drinks with the 'Heads-Tails Probability Trick'......
Sep 15th 2013, 4:26 am
#26
Knee deep and rising
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Re: How to win Free Drinks with the 'Heads-Tails Probability Trick'......
(you are right by the way as a simple choice of two is still 50:50 whether you stick or switch, sticking is still making a choice
mwauhahahha)
Sep 15th 2013, 5:29 pm
#27
Hit 16's
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Sep 15th 2013, 6:04 pm
#28
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Re: How to win Free Drinks with the 'Heads-Tails Probability Trick'......
You picked one from three - you can now pick one from two.
I think the advantage of switching is obvious. You are now 50:50 - you were previously 33.3:66.7.
Sep 16th 2013, 4:58 am
#29
**** it we'll do it live
Joined: Oct 2004
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Posts: 7,892
Re: How to win Free Drinks with the 'Heads-Tails Probability Trick'......
Sep 16th 2013, 7:44 am
#30
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Re: How to win Free Drinks with the 'Heads-Tails Probability Trick'......
