Global Warming....

Old Feb 24th 2010, 11:04 am
  #16  
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Default Re: Global Warming....

Originally Posted by Jeeper
http://aylluinitiative.files.wordpre...h-to-20501.jpg

Not much point in reducing greenhouse gases by targets of 20% or whatever by 2050 when global population increases by over 166% thru the same period.

Yr 2000 - 6 billion produce 'X' tonnes of such gas = Xtonnes
Yr 2050 - 10 billion produce '(X-20%) x 166% = 1.33 Xtonnes

We, as a democratic society, will NEVER take steps to control population...and I think it's that alone which will determine how long humanity exists.
We are very good at controlling our own reproduction rates - if there is something worth doing so for.

Everywhere in the world where population growth is spiralling out of control is where women are regarded as second (or third) class members of society. They are denied equality of opportunity in education and employment, among many other things. They are simply 'possessions' of their husbands or fathers.

What to do to pass the boring time at home? I know - let's have another baby!

Where there is some degree of sexual equality (and yes, ladies, I know it's not perfect anywhere), women find that an independence derived from their own income, and the ability to decide precisely how to spend their lives, lead to birth rates that are either stable, or growing at a modest and manageable rate, or even falling (e.g. the Catholic southern European countries where birth rates are now lower than ever).

Immigration changes this particular demographic, and that's the challenge.

It's a dilemma for any government whose economy is growing: "We need more people to fill the vacancies that the economic expansion has created, but there aren't enough young people coming into the workplace due to recent low birth rates. What can we do? Wait a minute - let's bring in some immigrants.....!"

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Old Feb 24th 2010, 11:15 am
  #17  
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Default Re: Global Warming....

Originally Posted by The Dean
We are very good at controlling our own reproduction rates - if there is something worth doing so for.

Everywhere in the world where population growth is spiralling out of control is where women are regarded as second (or third) class members of society. They are denied equality of opportunity in education and employment, among many other things. They are simply 'possessions' of their husbands or fathers.

What to do to pass the boring time at home? I know - let's have another baby!

Where there is some degree of sexual equality (and yes, ladies, I know it's not perfect anywhere), women find that an independence derived from their own income, and the ability to decide precisely how to spend their lives, lead to birth rates that are either stable, or growing at a modest and manageable rate, or even falling (e.g. the Catholic southern European countries where birth rates are now lower than ever).

Immigration changes this particular demographic, and that's the challenge.

It's a dilemma for any government whose economy is growing: "We need more people to fill the vacancies that the economic expansion has created, but there aren't enough young people coming into the workplace due to recent low birth rates. What can we do? Wait a minute - let's bring in some immigrants.....!"
trouble with our world and my previous argument is most of the emissions are from the developed world....and the population 'explosion' is from the 3rd world.

Immigration of 3rd world into the developed world to further develop the developed world is where it comes to a head. (read that sentence again....a bit slower...it does make sense )
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Old Feb 24th 2010, 11:57 am
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Default Re: Global Warming....

Originally Posted by Autonomy
So, people seem to be changing their minds....

What do you think?

Thirty one percent of those polled said climate change was "definitely" happening, while 29% said it "it's looking like it could be a reality", and another 31% said the problem was exaggerated, a category which rose by 50% compared to a year ago. Only 6% said climate change was not happening at all, and 3% said they did not know.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environmen...f-climate-poll
I think part of the problem is the attention span of people - the doubts that have been cast are on fairly arcane points that do not change the fact that the measured data from the last few hundred years shows that CO2 levels are increasing alarmingly.



You could maybe argue about the level of impact of changes in co2 concentration - there is some debate about how accurate different mathematical models used to predict the effects are. 'Twas ever thus in the world of simulation and modelling - and we can't really expect climatologists to be able to say with certainty precisely what changes will occur.

In any case, regardless of whether we want to cut emissions or wade into a climatically unpredictable future with gay abandon, there is also the issue of depletion of the earth's fossil fuel resources. The UK would do itself a massive favour if it derived more of its energy from renewables - one thing I think the current government has got right is investment into large scale wind and wave generation tech.

Is it enough? No, but it's in the right direction.
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Old Feb 24th 2010, 1:03 pm
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Default Re: Global Warming....

Originally Posted by Jeeper
trouble with our world and my previous argument is most of the emissions are from the developed world....and the population 'explosion' is from the 3rd world.

Immigration of 3rd world into the developed world to further develop the developed world is where it comes to a head. (read that sentence again....a bit slower...it does make sense )
The classic capitalist answer is unlimited growth and bringing everyone in the world up to the Western Standard Of Living. The way we are depleting resources and destroying our environment makes this a scary proposition. Of course, we are now trying to tell the likes of India and China that they can't have a slice of the action, because it's bad for the planet, oh, and by the way, we will not negotiate on our lifestyle...no siree. We've had our fun...I'm sorry, but you missed the boat!

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Old Feb 24th 2010, 1:35 pm
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Default Re: Global Warming....

Originally Posted by shakh your bootie
I think part of the problem is the attention span of people - the doubts that have been cast are on fairly arcane points that do not change the fact that the measured data from the last few hundred years shows that CO2 levels are increasing alarmingly.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ca...ide_400kyr.png

You could maybe argue about the level of impact of changes in co2 concentration - there is some debate about how accurate different mathematical models used to predict the effects are. 'Twas ever thus in the world of simulation and modelling - and we can't really expect climatologists to be able to say with certainty precisely what changes will occur.

In any case, regardless of whether we want to cut emissions or wade into a climatically unpredictable future with gay abandon, there is also the issue of depletion of the earth's fossil fuel resources. The UK would do itself a massive favour if it derived more of its energy from renewables - one thing I think the current government has got right is investment into large scale wind and wave generation tech.

Is it enough? No, but it's in the right direction.
Doesn't matter if we burn up all the worlds fossil fuels....in a few hundred millenia or so after we've all died off they will be replaced....just as they were created in the first place.

Human existence is a blink of an eye in the scheme of things.
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Old Feb 24th 2010, 1:40 pm
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Default Re: Global Warming....

Originally Posted by Jeeper
Doesn't matter if we burn up all the worlds fossil fuels....in a few hundred millenia or so after we've all died off they will be replaced....just as they were created in the first place.

Human existence is a blink of an eye in the scheme of things.
Hmm, although we are burning up energy that took a hundred million years to be stored in a matter of a century and a bit.
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Old Feb 24th 2010, 3:43 pm
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Default Re: Global Warming....

Originally Posted by Jeeper
Doesn't matter if we burn up all the worlds fossil fuels....in a few hundred millenia or so after we've all died off they will be replaced....just as they were created in the first place.

Human existence is a blink of an eye in the scheme of things.
Ah, but therein lies the defiantly beautiful nature of our puny species. Let the universe throw every obstacle in our way, and we shake our naked little fists at it and eke out our meagre existence in the face of its indifference.

I'd like to think we have a fair chance of existence millennia from now - in what form or where one can hardly dare think - but perhaps future generations will be as impressed by our generation's innovation in alternative fuels and overcoming the climate change challenge as, say, we might be by Roman hydraulic engineering or the Athenian invention of democracy.

One is reminded of Camus's philosophical essay The Myth of Sisyphus (the Hellenic chappie condemned to spend eternity rolling a stone up a mountain all day, only to find it rolled back again each morning). It sums up well the insistence of humanity on living, in full knowledge of ones own absurdity.

"This universe henceforth without a master seems to him neither sterile nor futile. Each atom of that stone, each mineral flake of that night filled mountain, in itself forms a world. The struggle itself toward the heights is enough to fill a man's heart. One must imagine Sisyphus happy."
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Old Feb 24th 2010, 3:56 pm
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Default Re: Global Warming....

Yep. Let's feel sorry for the polar bears....even though their population is rather stable by all accounts.

Want to know why Greenland is called Greenland? Because when the Vikings first sailed to America they found it....green. Not buried in snow. The Vikings were only able to make the passage to North America because the ice cap had retreated enough for them sail in clear water. A thousand years ago.

There's evidence of human settlement and farming activity in the far north of Scotland in places such as the Shetlands, Orkneys and the Outer Hebrides, suggesting a time when these places were noticeably warmer than recent memory.

Retreating glaciers in the Alps have unearthed ancient Roman remains including quarrying and mining remains. Oh. So the area wasn't under ice 2,000 years ago either?

Historical account clearly describes changes in the climate in Europe over the past two thousand years. The 700s-1000 was warmer than the following few hundred years, and there was a mini-ice age in the 18th century when temperatures plummeted.

In the bits when I lived in the States the newspapers often listed the dates of the record temperature highs and lows of that day, so when the global warming doomsayers first started appearing on the scene I noticed that despite the 'Oh god the hottest summer ever' the record high was actually in 1896 or 1921 or whatever you have it.

Is the climate changing? Sure. But is it global warming as the doomsayers want to portray it? Nope.

But I do agree there's a problem with overuse of non-renewable resources on the planet and the sheer amount of garbage produced by humans every year and the filth we're polluting the planet and our seas with. That's the real concern, not global warming.
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Old Feb 24th 2010, 4:09 pm
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Default Re: Global Warming....

Originally Posted by Ethos83
Yep. Let's feel sorry for the polar bears....even though their population is rather stable by all accounts.

Want to know why Greenland is called Greenland? Because when the Vikings first sailed to America they found it....green. Not buried in snow. The Vikings were only able to make the passage to North America because the ice cap had retreated enough for them sail in clear water. A thousand years ago.

There's evidence of human settlement and farming activity in the far north of Scotland in places such as the Shetlands, Orkneys and the Outer Hebrides, suggesting a time when these places were noticeably warmer than recent memory.

Retreating glaciers in the Alps have unearthed ancient Roman remains including quarrying and mining remains. Oh. So the area wasn't under ice 2,000 years ago either?

Historical account clearly describes changes in the climate in Europe over the past two thousand years. The 700s-1000 was warmer than the following few hundred years, and there was a mini-ice age in the 18th century when temperatures plummeted.

In the bits when I lived in the States the newspapers often listed the dates of the record temperature highs and lows of that day, so when the global warming doomsayers first started appearing on the scene I noticed that despite the 'Oh god the hottest summer ever' the record high was actually in 1896 or 1921 or whatever you have it.

Is the climate changing? Sure. But is it global warming as the doomsayers want to portray it? Nope.

But I do agree there's a problem with overuse of non-renewable resources on the planet and the sheer amount of garbage produced by humans every year and the filth we're polluting the planet and our seas with. That's the real concern, not global warming.
Yes, granted - the central question if you look at it from a data analysis point of view is whether we can detect the effect of our actions when we look deeper into the historical record, or whether what we do is lost in the noise of greater effects due to natural cycles.

One of the central differences, however, is that there is a lag (about 80 years, I believe) between temperature changes and CO2 levels in the dataset when you look back on a scale of millennia. These previous variations in temperature, however, have been due to changes in the earth's orbit and the relative distance to the sun - changes in CO2 have historically always been an effect of changes in the carbon cycle driven by temperature change, not a cause.

The issue we have now, then, is that we need to understand what happens in the reverse case - how do human-induced changes in CO2 drive temperature change?

You can only do this by computation, and there are competing models out there that say different things. The systems are highly non-linear, and because it is a new phenomena it is difficult to validate models through historical data because we don't have datasets where it is the CO2 driving the change in temperature.

We could, of course, hang about and wait and see what happens - and either say hey great, Iceland is now a sun-drenched surfer's paradise - or we could study the problem and until we understand what we're doing control our emissions.

As the previous poster said, there are related issues of limited natural resources, and the problems of exponential growth of both populations and consumption.

People might be bored of politicians and scientists harping on about this - but it is an important issue and one we are all stakeholders in.
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Old Feb 24th 2010, 4:27 pm
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Default Re: Global Warming....

Originally Posted by Ethos83
Yep. Let's feel sorry for the polar bears....even though their population is rather stable by all accounts.

Want to know why Greenland is called Greenland? Because when the Vikings first sailed to America they found it....green. Not buried in snow. The Vikings were only able to make the passage to North America because the ice cap had retreated enough for them sail in clear water. A thousand years ago.

There's evidence of human settlement and farming activity in the far north of Scotland in places such as the Shetlands, Orkneys and the Outer Hebrides, suggesting a time when these places were noticeably warmer than recent memory.

Retreating glaciers in the Alps have unearthed ancient Roman remains including quarrying and mining remains. Oh. So the area wasn't under ice 2,000 years ago either?

Historical account clearly describes changes in the climate in Europe over the past two thousand years. The 700s-1000 was warmer than the following few hundred years, and there was a mini-ice age in the 18th century when temperatures plummeted.

In the bits when I lived in the States the newspapers often listed the dates of the record temperature highs and lows of that day, so when the global warming doomsayers first started appearing on the scene I noticed that despite the 'Oh god the hottest summer ever' the record high was actually in 1896 or 1921 or whatever you have it.

Is the climate changing? Sure. But is it global warming as the doomsayers want to portray it? Nope.

But I do agree there's a problem with overuse of non-renewable resources on the planet and the sheer amount of garbage produced by humans every year and the filth we're polluting the planet and our seas with. That's the real concern, not global warming.
I think the 'mini ice-age' (when the Thames froze over for example), was in the 17th century and prior to industrialisation and use of fossil fuels. In any case, what you have said clearly points to previous periods of natural (pre-industrialisation) climate change.
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Old Feb 24th 2010, 5:37 pm
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Default Re: Global Warming....

OMFG- a real discussion!!!

blips in temperature highs and lows, anomalies in finding human habitation in unexpected places, legitimate questions about AGW, all these are taken advantage of by greedy selfish people.

They over-emphasize these things to justify turning a blind eye that AGW is not the only way we are ruining this planet.
AGW may be debatable, especially if you want to be comfortable, but htere is no arguing with acid rain, ozone holes (skin cancer rates in AUS/NZ, anyone?), deforestation, water shortages, extinction, biodiversity, fertility rates, etc etc.

Those living in denial use this bogus 'doubt' to sweep all these issue under the rug. Handy.
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Old Feb 24th 2010, 5:46 pm
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Default Re: Global Warming....

We will die anyway...
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Old Feb 24th 2010, 6:06 pm
  #28  
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Default Re: Global Warming....

Originally Posted by Confucius
We will die anyway...
I'll just let a lion loose in my house in that case. I'm going to die anyway.
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Old Feb 24th 2010, 6:07 pm
  #29  
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Default Re: Global Warming....

Originally Posted by littlejimmy
I'll just let a lion loose in my house in that case. I'm going to die anyway.
Not if it gets a heart attack...
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Old Feb 24th 2010, 8:02 pm
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Default Re: Global Warming....

Originally Posted by Confucius
We will die anyway...
we're all going to die anyway
vs
we're all going to die, so let's use up everything and f**k our kids and their kids.
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