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Global Corona Death predictions

View Poll Results: Total Corona deaths we report before we give up reporting?
<50,000
0
0%
50,000- 100,000
2
6.25%
100,000 – 250,000
5
15.63%
250,000 – 500,000
4
12.50%
500,000 – 1m
7
21.88%
1m +
14
43.75%
Voters: 32. You may not vote on this poll

Global Corona Death predictions

Old Jun 8th 2020, 9:43 pm
  #61  
 
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Pulaski View Post
I am sceptical about all countries' reported data, and fully recognise that the UK and US have significant problems, with "opening up" when it is at best debatable as to whether the transmission of the disease is under control, and in the US there are rather too many covidiot deniers, who won't even act to reduce transmission becuase they (i) don't believe the disease is "any more concerning than flu", and/or (ii) God will look after them, or if they die, its just God''s will, and/or (iii) the whole lock-down effort is a government/UN conspiracy to deprive people of their liberty, etc, etc.

Given that all countries' data may be suspect, it is noteworthy that the reported daily cases in India are increasing, and accelerating (generally today's number is greater than yesterday's), when even countries that haven't acted well to control the spread of the disease, such as the UK and US, are reporting lower and down-ward trending new case numbers every day. So even if India has a low infection rate, and has "flattened the curve" the truth at the moment is that the disease is still spreading, and spreading more every day than the day before, which puts India in the same situation as Mexico, Pakistan, and Bangladesh as (I think) the only four countries in the top twenty (by numbers of infections) where the daily reports of new cases are still increasing.
Past 3 days in Saudi have seen their highest ever case numbers, and deaths.
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Old Jun 9th 2020, 1:37 am
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Bipat View Post
Can you not understand? India had an early and total lockdown, borders closed, in cities unable to go anywhere without temperature testing and masks, leading to proportionally less cases and certainly less deaths.
Now they have started reducing Lockdown and have a 'peak' of cases. A warning to other countries about reducing lockdown.
We will see what happens now. (Some States are extending lock down West Bengal for example.)

Regarding numbers ---I presume you know the population of India?
You apparently think I'm an uninformed idiot, and I think you're in denial.

I have read news reports that make nonsense of your "on the ground" expertise, and it is clear, to me at least, that India has had thousands (hundreds of thousands, from what I read), of unemployed and destitute migrating back home across India after they lost their job/ source of income, no doubt in many cases carrying the infection with them. They are hitching any ride they can get, or just walking from town to town, obviously with little or no access to hygienic sanitation. The low testing rate just allows the government and the educated elite to remain in denial about the real extent of the spread of the diseases in the lower castes .... And yes, I know that castes were legally abolished.
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Old Jun 9th 2020, 1:42 am
  #63  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by nonthaburi View Post
Past 3 days in Saudi have seen their highest ever case numbers, and deaths.
Thank you. I am beginning to see some sort of pattern emerge.
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Old Jun 9th 2020, 6:18 am
  #64  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Pulaski View Post
You apparently think I'm an uninformed idiot, and I think you're in denial.

I have read news reports that make nonsense of your "on the ground" expertise, and it is clear, to me at least, that India has had thousands (hundreds of thousands, from what I read), of unemployed and destitute migrating back home across India after they lost their job/ source of income, no doubt in many cases carrying the infection with them. They are hitching any ride they can get, or just walking from town to town, obviously with little or no access to hygienic sanitation. The low testing rate just allows the government and the educated elite to remain in denial about the real extent of the spread of the diseases in the lower castes .... And yes, I know that castes were legally abolished.
I wouldn't bother. Any discussion around anything even close to India provokes such an angry reaction whether factual, opinion or anything.
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Old Jun 9th 2020, 9:12 am
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Pulaski View Post
You apparently think I'm an uninformed idiot, and I think you're in denial.I have read news reports that make nonsense of your "on the ground" expertise, and it is clear, to me at least, that India has had thousands (hundreds of thousands, from what I read), of unemployed and destitute migrating back home across India after they lost their job/ source of income, no doubt in many cases carrying the infection with them. They are hitching any ride they can get, or just walking from town to town, obviously with little or no access to hygienic sanitation. The low testing rate just allows the government and the educated elite to remain in denial about the real extent of the spread of the diseases in the lower castes .... And yes, I know that castes were legally abolished.
Yes!!!!! Those 'migrants' as you call them -----thousands who travel from villages to thebig cities for work. They mostly do 'day' jobs and obviously yes lost their source of income --as happened in other countries.
It was not "across" India, those travelling to Mumbai, Delhi will be from the surrounding rural regions.
Individual States are also responsible for financial aid.
Yes, they are mostly of low social class----what you refer to as 'caste'. (What has sanitation got to do with it -----urinating/defaecating in a bush while travelling does not spread the virus!!!----It is a respiratory infection.)

Modi badly underestimated the numbers, returning to villages, far too few/ or no buses, trains etc were put on in the beginning.

Lockdown was started BEFORE the virus spread so it is unlikely that many as described above were infected.


Deaths are recorded so even if in a remote northern village in numbers an increase would be noted.

As sun_burn pointed out there are differences in every part of India.

Look up the details regarding Karnataka if you are interested---as it is surprising how few cases there considering Bangalore is also a global 'hub'.





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Old Jun 9th 2020, 9:55 am
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Not criticising India - just a point of information most of the labour in Mumbai is coming from places like Bihar not surrounding regions.
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Old Jun 9th 2020, 10:20 am
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by weasel decentral View Post
Not criticising India - just a point of information most of the labour in Mumbai is coming from places like Bihar not surrounding regions.
Yes---it depends what you mean by 'labour'-----they will come from all areas within travel distance. Many will be just day workers or getting menial jobs. Most of the casual day workers come from Maharashtra. OH was surprised how many in hospitality work come from north eastern states---even Assam and Bhutan.
Mumbai---is more 'friendly ' to distant workers than Delhi.

https://www.freepressjournal.in/indi...pe-of-new-dawn
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Old Jun 9th 2020, 7:48 pm
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Bipat View Post
Yes!!!!! Those 'migrants' as you call them -----thousands who travel from villages to thebig cities for work.
Not just me, that's what the BBC called them.
They mostly do 'day' jobs and obviously yes lost their source of income --as happened in other countries.
It was not "across" India, those travelling to Mumbai, Delhi will be from the surrounding rural regions......
I was talking about the phenomenon being "across India", not necessarily that any one individual was crossing India to get home, though the BBC has reported that some people were traveling over 1,000 miles, so not exactly commuting in from the 'burbs.
.....Individual States are also responsible for financial aid. ....
Which is every bit as convenient in India as it is in the US, allowing the National government to disociate itself from the conditions at grass roots level and to make policy decisons and public annoucements that are entirely inconsisitent with reality, and/or are ineffectively enforced or just ignored entirely. This isn't a criticism of India, as exactly the same thing is happening in the US. So while I am on the other side of the world, I can see perfectly well what is happening in India, as the same thing is happening in my back yard. Also like India, the size of the country means that conditions in local and rural areas, can differ wildly from the national statiistics, and that some cities are already significantly recovering while others are still experiencing escalalting numbers of cases and deaths.
.....Yes, they are mostly of low social class----what you refer to as 'caste'.
Right, that was me, because nobody in India refers to castes or the caste system, because that isn't legal anymore in India. In other news racial descrimination has been unlawful in the US since the 1960's.
.... (What has sanitation got to do with it -----urinating/defaecating in a bush while travelling does not spread the virus!!!----It is a respiratory infection.) ....
So apparently hygiene and handwashing isn't important after all? I can't help but think that crapping in a ditch, and risking walking in contaminated ground because other people have crapped in the same ditch isn't going to be helpful, either to others passing through, or to people lving in the vacinity of the ad hoc latrine, not least because waste dumped on the ground can still become airborne again due to wind, insects, etc. But maybe that's just my first world bias against poor people living in third world conditions.
..... Modi badly underestimated the numbers, returning to villages, far too few/ or no buses, trains etc were put on in the beginning. ....
In other words, just like the US, declaring a lock down in a country with a population measured in hundreds of millions (especially more than 13 of them ) is easier said than done and that people have a habit of wandering off and doing their own thing, irrespective of what the government tells them to do. I guess that is one of the downsides of living in a democracy.
.... Lockdown was started BEFORE the virus spread so it is unlikely that many as described above were infected.
Er, prior to early 2020, nobody was really looking for the virus, and I suspect that there were at least a few people who had made their way to India from Wuhan since the virus first emerged there, especially as data is now emerging to suggest that in fact there was already a public health crisis (crowded hospitals) in Wuhan as early as October 2019, and the liklihood is that the virus was spreading a month or more before even that. So I would suggest that it is very likely that there were coronavirus vectors already in India long before the "preemtive" lock-down in India was announced. In short, given the low testing rate in India, I suspect that the actual infection rate is significantly more than the official statistics. (See above, for matters relating to the national government being in denial.)
..... Deaths are recorded so even if in a remote northern village in numbers an increase would be noted. ....
I don't consider the death rate data to be accurate in most countries. Russia is an obvious and well documented outlier, but given the speed that some people are dying, and that some people are dying from conditons related to blood clots and failure of organs suchas the kidneys, which is proving challenging even for the UK, and countries in Europe and North America to identify coronavirus deaths post mortem, so the most intellectually honest data is going to come from the "excess death rate" - how many more people are dying each day/ week than would be expected based on average historic data. This is what is reportedly happening in Belgium (and why it has among the highest reported death rates in the world) and also New York City shifted to that method in early April, as they realised that they were excluding the deaths of people who died at home without ever being diagnosed with the disease. So to your point "deaths are recorded", that is a meaningless platitude, not because it relates to India, but because it is meaningless whether in an Indian village, or in Brazil, or the US, or pretty much anywhere else.
.....As sun_burn pointed out there are differences in every part of India. ....
I am sure that is true, as I noted above and as there are in the US, and other large countries.
....Look up the details regarding Karnataka if you are interested---as it is surprising how few cases there considering Bangalore is also a global 'hub'.
I might just do that, but there might be another explanation as noted above, other than there being actually few cases.

Last edited by Pulaski; Jun 9th 2020 at 8:04 pm.
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Old Jun 9th 2020, 9:10 pm
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Pulaski View Post
1)Not just me, that's what the BBC called them.

I was talking about the phenomenon being "across India", not necessarily that any one individual was crossing India to get home, though the BBC has reported that some people were traveling over 1,000 miles, so not exactly commuting in from the 'burbs.

2)Which is every bit as convenient in India as it is in the US, allowing the National government to disociate itself from the conditions at grass roots level and to make policy decisons and public annoucements that are entirely inconsisitent with reality, and/or are ineffectively enforced or just ignored entirely. This isn't a criticism of India, as exactly the same thing is happening in the US. So while I am on the other side of the world, I can see perfectly well what is happening in India, as the same thing is happening in my back yard. Also like India, the size of the country means that conditions in local and rural areas, can differ wildly from the national statiistics, and that some cities are already significantly recovering while others are still experiencing escalalting numbers of cases and deaths.
3)Right, that was me, because nobody in India refers to castes or the caste system, because that isn't legal anymore in India. In other news racial descrimination has been unlawful in the US since the 1960's.

4)So apparently hygiene and handwashing isn't important after all? I can't help but think that crapping in a ditch, and risking walking in contaminated ground because other people have crapped in the same ditch isn't going to be helpful, either to others passing through, or to people lving in the vacinity of the ad hoc latrine, not least because waste dumped on the ground can still become airborne again due to wind, insects, etc. But maybe that's just my first world bias against poor people living in third world conditions.

5)In other words, just like the US, declaring a lock down in a country with a population measured in hundreds of millions (especially more than 13 of them ) is easier said than done and that people have a habit of wandering off and doing their own thing, irrespective of what the government tells them to do. I guess that is one of the downsides of living in a democracy.

6)Er, prior to early 2020, nobody was really looking for the virus, and I suspect that there were at least a few people who had made their way to India from Wuhan since the virus first emerged there, especially as data is now emerging to suggest that in fact there was already a public health crisis (crowded hospitals) in Wuhan as early as October 2019, and the liklihood is that the virus was spreading a month or more before even that. So I would suggest that it is very likely that there were coronavirus vectors already in India long before the "preemtive" lock-down in India was announced. In short, given the low testing rate in India, I suspect that the actual infection rate is significantly more than the official statistics. (See above, for matters relating to the national government being in denial.)

7)I don't consider the death rate data to be accurate in most countries. Russia is an obvious and well documented outlier, but given the speed that some people are dying, and that some people are dying from conditons related to blood clots and failure of organs suchas the kidneys, which is proving challenging even for the UK, and countries in Europe and North America to identify coronavirus deaths post mortem, so the most intellectually honest data is going to come from the "excess death rate" - how many more people are dying each day/ week than would be expected based on average historic data. This is what is reportedly happening in Belgium (and why it has among the highest reported death rates in the world) and also New York City shifted to that method in early April, as they realised that they were excluding the deaths of people who died at home without ever being diagnosed with the disease. So to your point "deaths are recorded", that is a meaningless platitude, not because it relates to India, but because it is meaningless whether in an Indian village, or in Brazil, or the US, or pretty much anywhere else.

I am sure that is true, as I noted above and as there are in the US, and other large countries.

8)I might just do that, but there might be another explanation as noted above, other than there being actually few cases.

1) The BBC loves to get the most melodramatic reports of India that it can. Do you really think people could walk for a thousand miles!!!! There were buses and trains ---just not enough.
I did not say 'suburbs' I said near states or towns ----as I said above most day workers are from Maharashtra.

2) I said ALSO State governments. Read the finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.

3) Yes the word 'caste' is still used by some ----'caste' was originally a description of job, that is military, priest etc etc. Many are proud of their origins and have clubs etc. for their 'caste'.
Certainly those of the lowest 'class' have discrimination against them as anywhere.

4)As I pointed out to you the Covid19 is a respiratory virus. It is breathed in! Indian people wash their bums with water, they think paper unclean!!!! (Although supermarkets have shelves of toilet paper!)

5) A billion+ actually and lockdown was strictly policed.

6)I suppose you know that India is more or less on a war footing with china!! There was a problem in Kerala with incoming tourists who evaded quarantine. Obviously Delhi international arrivals from everywhere.

7)Indian authorities are fanatics regarding-reporting-statistics---etc. etc.

8)Actually as it is our home State you might like to just ask!!!Numerous rels. in B'lore.

There has been a frightening increase in cases in Mumbai and Delhi since reduction of lockdown.



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Old Jun 9th 2020, 9:29 pm
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Bipat View Post
1) The BBC loves to get the most melodramatic reports of India that it can. Do you really think people could walk for a thousand miles!!!! There were buses and trains ---just not enough.
I did not say 'suburbs' I said near states or towns ----as I said above most day workers are from Maharashtra.

2) I said ALSO State governments. Read the finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.

3) Yes the word 'caste' is still used by some ----'caste' was originally a description of job, that is military, priest etc etc. Many are proud of their origins and have clubs etc. for their 'caste'.
Certainly those of the lowest 'class' have discrimination against them as anywhere.

4)As I pointed out to you the Covid19 is a respiratory virus. It is breathed in! Indian people wash their bums with water, they think paper unclean!!!! (Although supermarkets have shelves of toilet paper!)

5) A billion+ actually and lockdown was strictly policed.

6)I suppose you know that India is more or less on a war footing with china!! There was a problem in Kerala with incoming tourists who evaded quarantine. Obviously Delhi international arrivals from everywhere.

7)Indian authorities are fanatics regarding-reporting-statistics---etc. etc.

8)Actually as it is our home State you might like to just ask!!!Numerous rels. in B'lore.

There has been a frightening increase in cases in Mumbai and Delhi since reduction of lockdown.
This girl cycled 700!!
With her injured dad.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...-sparks-debate
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Old Jun 9th 2020, 10:16 pm
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by nonthaburi View Post
This girl cycled 700!!
With her injured dad.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...-sparks-debate
Yes I read about the girl and her father. Why do you think it was in all news papers!!!! It was a sensation.
There were State and local differences regarding transport both public and private.
Special buses and trains were put on for village workers but not enough in early days. We travelled over Karnataka border by taxi in late March.

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Old Jun 10th 2020, 4:32 am
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Bipat View Post

7)Indian authorities are fanatics regarding-reporting-statistics---etc. etc.
My local BMC (local gov.) representative has told my guys to stop testing and also to stop reporting any cases, that's first hand. While it may be considered anecdotal in the wider scheme of things - it's a widely followed practice in Mumbai.

I'm not criticising India, I believe they have done as well as could be expected. I certainly don't have a third world narrative to peddle, objectivity is the only way to come out of this thing.

Last edited by weasel decentral; Jun 10th 2020 at 4:34 am.
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Old Jun 10th 2020, 6:12 am
  #73  
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Pulaski View Post
5)..... a country with a population measured in hundreds of millions (especially more than 13 of them )
Originally Posted by Bipat View Post
5) A billion+ actually
I'm genuinely howling.
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Old Jun 10th 2020, 8:27 am
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Scamp View Post
I'm genuinely howling.
Why? Have you injured yourself?
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Old Jun 10th 2020, 8:49 am
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Default Re: Global Corona Death predictions

Originally Posted by Bipat View Post
Why? Have you injured yourself?
Fortunately not. Just couldn't help but laugh at you, again.
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